DraftKings Main Slate for Week 9 - Wide Receiver (WR)

By the numbers, the #Broncos' WRs land the best matchup against the #Ravens, who allowed 23+ in three of the last four weeks. While the game appears less like a shootout, something has to give with either the #Ravens' offense or the #Broncos' defense. Additionally, it's hard to run against Baltimore, so the passing game should be in play for Denver. Courtland Sutton has been sporadic with finding a solid floor but has scored 15+ points in three of the last five weeks, including 21 last week against the #Panthers. He's priced reasonably for a 21-point mark. The remaining pieces are pure darts, as the snaps for each WRs are 51% (Franklin), 46% (Vele), and 48% (Humphrey). While Franklin and Vele snapped 37% and 34% last week, Humphrey saw an uptick to 60%. I'd lean toward Troy Franklin to surprise. #Broncos

The data doesn't overtly promote the #Dolphins' WRs. The #Bills have contained WRs to 15 points or fewer all season, except Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard for 27 & 26 points. While I understand my goal as an analysis, the problem is that the Tyreek Hill explosion will arrive soon. He's priced at a price we won't see after that arrives. Whether it's just multi-entries or single entries, this is the stock you want to get in front of. I understand if you don't want to chase "opinion" pieces, but sometimes talent trumps data. I'll be starting my chase this week, especially with those who will fade from chasing it last week. #Dolphins

If Derek Carr goes, consider a boost in this promotion, even though Chris Olave scored 21 points without him last week. This is the same trend that promoted Courtland Sutton's success last week, as the #Panthers have allowed 15+ points all season. Olave's history vs. Carolina is less appealing, as he scored 3 points in Week 1 and 12 & 14 points last season. He's reasonably priced if Carr lands under center toward his 24-point mark. #Saints

Marvin Harrison Harrison tailed off to a 15-point floor in Week 4, from a 32-point explosion and 17-point outing in the two weeks prior. Since then, he's scored only 5, 0, & 5, but he followed up last week with 26 points against the #Dolphins. Now, he faces the #Bears, who allowed 21 & 20 points in the previous two weeks. Beyond that, it's been quiet with WRs, only producing one output of 30 points in Week 2 (Nico Collins) and limiting all WRs to 12 points or fewer. While recent data support a floor to arrive toward his 27-point mark, there is also significant data from the player and the opponent to disappoint. He's priced fair enough to add to a solid build, but I'm not chasing here if I have too many risky pieces. #Cardinals

Jakobi Meyers has quietly produced 9+ points in his last four outings (missed Week 6 & 7), including 17 points last week. Meyers should continue some floor toward his 21-point mark against the #Bengals, who allowed 16 & 20 points to Cedric Tillman and DeVonta Smith in the previous two weeks. Tre Tucker presents appealing, as the data leaned toward Smith rather than AJB, which is where this may land if you want to get a discount and a lower mark of 17 points. DJ Turner scored 13 points and snapped 53% last week, so he's in the mix as a high-risk dart at 3.9k. #Raiders

Justin Herbert is healthier and regaining form. Ladd McConkey exploded last week for 32 points, and Quentin Johnston, who started the season well, is returning. The #Browns allowed 15+ to WRs since Week 2 and 18+ in the last three weeks, including 21 & 26 points to Zay Flowers and AJ Brown. Josh Palmer is tough to chase for his mark but has found a 9-point floor in the last two weeks. He lands as the dart, but McConkey and Johnston are solid plays toward their 22-point and 17-point marks. While the upside of McConkey is appealing, the $1200 discount for Johnston presents a better build. #Chargers

Zay Flowers scored 21+ points in three of the last four weeks. The #Broncos are not an ideal matchup, but in the previous two weeks, they've allowed 17 points to primary slot WRs Jalen Coker & Cedrick Wilson. Zay may see a similar floor or more, so he's a welcome play, but his mark is 28 points, so you'll need a little more against a defense that WRs quiet, allowing 13 or fewer points in all but three weeks (Godwin is the 3rd piece). This write-up lands similarly to the #Raiders' analysis, as the #Broncos have played the #Panthers (17 points), Saints (injured QB, but still 17 points), #Chargers (not much of passing attack), #Raiders (the #Raiders), #Jets (the #Jets), #Buccaneers (17 points), #Steelers (with Fields), and #Seahawks (first game of the season???). The #Broncos' Defense presents a top defense, but this game may change or affirm that narrative. #Ravens

With Jordan Love as a game-time decision, the usage of any of the #Packers' WRs will land with reports at the late kickoff. It presents a high-risk opportunity that can land with or without Love (less likely, but possible). Jayden Reed presents the best chance against the #Lions, where they've allowed 16+ to WRs all season, including 21 & 26 points in the last two weeks. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are also in play, snapping 84% & 74% last week. If you want to roll with Dontayvion Wicks, I won't stop you, but his snap on the season has dwindled -19.31% from 47% to 28.37% in the last three weeks, including 30% last week. Promoting that lack of probability is too hard, especially at 5.2k. If you want to go here only if Love goes, I'd suggest these options below: Reed - > Swift ((if Swift is already in the lineup, then McBride) if not in the flex, JSN) Doubs -> Lockett or Keenan Allen Watson -> Gabe Davis or Odunze #Packers

Cedric Tillman has hit for the last two weeks, scoring 16 & 28 points. The matchup against the #Chargers isn't as friendly, but his price is still reasonable at 4.3k. The #Chargers aren't allowing a huge ceiling, but they have allowed 15+ points in four of the last five weeks, including Chris Olave, who scored 21 points last week. That floor aligns with Tillman's 17-point mark to keep him in play with an upside. He'll remain popular, so there's no reason not to keep playing him. #Browns

If Tee Higgins were playing, Ja'Marr wouldn't likely be promoted with his 34-point mark. With Higgins out, targets should increase his opportunities vs. the #Raiders. The confusion here is that the #Raiders haven't allowed more than 13 points to a WR since Week 3. Diontae Johnson scored 29 points, and Zay Flower scored 22 points. While the 13-point ceiling is impressive, it lands against the #Browns (with Deshaun), the #Steelers (with Fields), the #Rams (without Kupp & Puka), and the #Chiefs (Hopkins first week). While data is our friend, sometimes our friends mislead us...or even lie to us. This data tells a story, but it's not accurate...or fully completed. Oddly, I believe Ja'Marr will tell that narrative as we advance. Sometimes, it doesn't land, but it's better to be early to the party than not make it at all. #Bengals

It's hard to have comfort in the #Titans' offense, but it arrived a little last week, with Calvin Ridley hitting 26 points against the #Lions. The matchup against the #Patriots promotes continuing his usage, as the #Pats have allowed 19+ points to WRs in the last three weeks. Obviously, there's boom-or-bust potential here, but the targets should be there without Hopkins. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine arrives with some salary relief and a 14-point mark. He found a floor of 7 points in the last three weeks but did not surpass 11 points. While the floor is appealing, keep in mind that he had a touchdown in all three of those weeks. #Titans

This is not to deter any pursuit of Xavier Leggette, but the data aligns with Jalen Coker against the #Saints this week. They allowed primary slot receivers 23+ points in three of the last four weeks (McConkey (32), Godwin (38), and JuJu (23)). With a low mark of 14 points, Coker's price allows for a phenomenal build. He landed 17 points last week, snapping 68%...and with Bryce Young. An 8-10-point floor is a fair range with some upside. Fair dart. #Panthers

There were reports that Brian Thomas was out for 2-4 weeks, but now he's limited in practice all week and might play. Gabe Davis practiced at the same pace and may play, too. We know the Gabe Davis story, so roll the dice if you want to, but I don't have anything to help that decision. The #Eagles aren't easy to assess, as they allowed 20 points to JaMarr Chase last week, but who doesn't most weeks? In the previous two weeks, they limited WRs to 8 points or fewer, including the struggling #Browns at the time and the #Giants. I expected more from Nabers with the previous trends of 17+ in the first four weeks, but I also understand that the #Giants aren't exactly a premier offense in the league. Based on last year's trends, the #Eagles were at the bottom of the barrel, which aligned to start the season, outside of the few anomalies above. I'd lean toward continuing in some capacity, but the injury concerns likely break the tie. If we gain positive news on Thomas, I would like the price to be toward his 26-point mark. All that aside, Parker Washington lands as a solid and likely popular dart at 3.6k. He snapped 73% last week with Kirk out for the season. #Jaguars

With or without Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp is in play, but without him, Kupp will likely land as a target hog against the #Seahawks, who allowed 18+ to WRs in the last four weeks. His mark is 30 points, so it's an uphill climb, but the production and opportunity are there for an 18+ point floor. #Rams

Malik Nabers smashed with 26+ points from Week 2 - Week 4, including 31 against the #Commanders, but came back to life, only hitting 8 & 14 points in the last two weeks. Outside of Zay Flowers scoring 25 points in Week 6, the #Commanders limited WRs to 15 points or fewer since Week 4, so there is some reluctance to chase production going back to Week 1 - 3. The opportunities will be there for Nabers, so it's not extremely risky to expect a 15-point floor, but identifying him repeating his 30-point mark is challenging to align with recent production. He's welcome, but he just may not fit. It'll be close. #Giants