DraftKings Main Slate for Week 7 - Quarterback (QB)

Seattle Seahawks vs ATL:

Geno Smith - $5800

Geno Smith has a floor of 17 points (last week) in four of the last five games. His mark is 23 points vs. the #Falcons, who allowed that in Week 2 (Hurts) and Week 5 (Mayfield). They've allowed 16+ in four of the last five weeks. Geno is underpriced for both his production and the matchup. It's not a smash spot, but a floor of 16 is reasonable toward that 23-point mark. #Seahawks
$5800 Geno Smith pts needed: 23.2
-300
$6100 17.48 pts wk6(SF)
+200
$5900 22.56 pts wk5(NYG)
+100
$5800 25.60 pts wk4(DET)
+200
$5600 13.36 pts wk3(MIA)
+100
$5500 20.88 pts wk2(NE)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
63.52
ppg:
19.79
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
70.53
ppg:
21.88
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
9.08 vs BUF -12.8 -10.71
HISTORY vs ATL
2024
17.78 points in Week 7
2022
22.90 points in Week 3

OPPONENTS vs. ATL

SEASON AVG vs ATL Rank
17.26 ppg 17th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs ATL Rank
16.47 ppg 12th
DIFF
-0.79
WK PLAYERS vs. ATL POINTS
6 Andy Dalton 16.94
5 Baker Mayfield 23.40
4 Derek Carr 9.06
3 Patrick Mahomes 17.38
2 Jalen Hurts 24.82
1 Justin Fields 11.94
Washington Commanders vs CAR:

Jayden Daniels - $7600

Jayden Daniels is not a player you are concerned with in matchups, as he's hit 20+ since Week 3, which includes highs of 25 & 28 points. There is no reason not to question that to continue vs. the #Panthers, who allowed 12 (Kirky), 26 (Caleb), and 17 (Burrow) over the last three weeks. While we aren't chasing the matchup as a concern, it does challenge the 30-point mark he needs to pay the bills. There is no reason not to utilize him, but based on the data, it leans against the ceiling you'd need. #Commanders
$7600 Jayden Daniels pts needed: 30.4
+300
$7300 20.96 pts wk6(BAL)
+500
$6800 20.72 pts wk5(CLE)
+300
$6500 25.02 pts wk4(ARI)
+300
$6200 28.06 pts wk3(CIN)
0
$6200 13.44 pts wk2(NYG)
SEASON
snp%:
97.53
util%:
61.07
ppg:
22.73
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
95.53
util%:
61.47
ppg:
22.23
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
25.24 vs CHI +3.01 +2.51
HISTORY vs CAR
2024
5.24 points in Week 7

OPPONENTS vs. CAR

SEASON AVG vs CAR Rank
18.75 ppg 22nd
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs CAR Rank
18.65 ppg 19th
DIFF
-0.1
WK PLAYERS vs. CAR POINTS
6 Kirk Cousins 12.50
5 Caleb Williams 26.56
4 Joe Burrow 17.28
3 Gardner Minshew II 14.96
3 Aidan OConnell 7.28
2 Justin Herbert 13.00
1 Derek Carr 21.30
Cleveland Browns vs CIN:

Deshaun Watson - $4900

It's hard to pull this trigger with Deshaun Watson only scoring 8, 9, & 13 in the last three weeks, but his price of 4.9k is always hard to ignore. That's a measly 19-point mark. He lost Amari Cooper this week, which doesn't help the "sell" of his play turning around, but he does gain Nick Chubb. The running game is Stefanski's core. If they can get that going, Watson can potentially find his way. While it's a hard reach, he's not a bad play in the context of the price. The matchup vs. the #Bengals doesn't point too favorably toward Watson, as they limited Mahomes, Dalton, and Daniel Jones to 12-16 points but allowed LJ & Daniels 28-37 points and 21 points to Watson last season. Fair dart. #Browns
$4900 Deshaun Watson pts needed: 19.6
-200
$5100 8.42 pts wk6(PHI)
-200
$5300 9.40 pts wk5(WAS)
-100
$5400 13.24 pts wk4(LV)
-100
$5500 18.44 pts wk3(NYG)
-100
$5600 15.44 pts wk2(JAX)
SEASON
snp%:
97.15
util%:
59.3
ppg:
12.93
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
96.7
util%:
56.8
ppg:
10.35
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
5.12 vs CIN -5.23 -7.81
HISTORY vs CIN
2024
5.12 points in Week 7
2023
21.66 points in Week 1
2022
17.34 points in Week14
2020
30.76 points in Week16
2017
17.70 points in Week 2

OPPONENTS vs. CIN

SEASON AVG vs CIN Rank
19.66 ppg 26th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs CIN Rank
22.31 ppg 27th
DIFF
+2.65
WK PLAYERS vs. CIN POINTS
6 Daniel Jones 12.80
5 Lamar Jackson 37.42
4 Andy Dalton 16.70
3 Jayden Daniels 28.06
2 Patrick Mahomes 14.94
1 Jacoby Brissett 8.04
Cincinnati Bengals vs CLE:

Joe Burrow - $6800

Joe Burrow has a floor of 17 in his last five games, including 28 & 37 points in Week 3(WAS) & 5 (BAL). His history vs. the #Browns isn't appealing over the last three games, only seeing a high of 17 points. His mark of 27 points is a strong deterrent, which Cleveland hasn't allowed all season. While it leans more negative than positive, CLE allowed 19+ points in three of the last four weeks, including highs of 21 & 20 points to QBs in the previous two weeks. The #Bengals offense is coming together, and the matchup is trending favorably toward Burrow finding his 17-point floor with upside. #Bengals
$6800 Joe Burrow pts needed: 27.2
-100
$6900 19.82 pts wk6(NYG)
+500
$6400 37.78 pts wk5(BAL)
-200
$6600 17.28 pts wk4(CAR)
+500
$6100 28.36 pts wk3(WAS)
-200
$6300 18.22 pts wk2(KC)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
60.43
ppg:
21.59
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
56.47
ppg:
24.96
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
13.86 vs PHI -11.1 -7.73
HISTORY vs CLE
2024
14.94 points in Week 7
2023
3.18 points in Week 1
2022
17.56 points in Week14
15.48 points in Week 8
2021
9.38 points in Week 9
2020
38.64 points in Week 7
28.54 points in Week 2

OPPONENTS vs. CLE

SEASON AVG vs CLE Rank
15.3 ppg 8th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs CLE Rank
15.9 ppg 9th
DIFF
+0.6
WK PLAYERS vs. CLE POINTS
6 Jalen Hurts 21.86
5 Jayden Daniels 20.72
5 Marcus Mariota 0.12
4 Gardner Minshew II 5.00
3 Daniel Jones 19.44
2 Trevor Lawrence 13.30
1 Dak Prescott 11.46
Minnesota Vikings vs DET:

Sam Darnold - $6200

By the numbers, Darnold has the best matchup on the slate vs. the #Lions, which oddly doesn't have glaring numbers to pounce on this pick. The ceiling vs. DET is 25 points (Geno), 0.2 higher than Darnold's 24-point mark. The #Lions shut down Dak last week and limited QBs between 15-19 the rest of the way. With Hutchinson out, it should help Darnold arrive close to his mark, as he's hit 20-23 points in three of his last four games, with a dud of 6 points being his previous outing. While there is some small risk here, his price is inline to limit the concern. #Vikings
$6200 Sam Darnold pts needed: 24.8
+300
$5900 6.26 pts wk5(NYJ)
+200
$5700 22.50 pts wk4(GB)
+200
$5500 23.24 pts wk3(HOU)
+300
$5200 20.92 pts wk2(SF)
0
$5200 15.62 pts wk1(NYG)
SEASON
snp%:
99.08
util%:
50.78
ppg:
17.71
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
98.47
util%:
49.13
ppg:
17.33
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
18.20 vs LAR +0.87 +0.49
HISTORY vs DET
2024
17.26 points in Week 7
2022
21.90 points in Week16
2018
14.82 points in Week 1

OPPONENTS vs. DET

SEASON AVG vs DET Rank
17.22 ppg 16th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs DET Rank
15.88 ppg 8th
DIFF
-1.34
WK PLAYERS vs. DET POINTS
6 Dak Prescott 5.22
6 Cooper Rush 1.04
4 Geno Smith 25.60
3 Kyler Murray 15.78
2 Baker Mayfield 19.80
1 Matthew Stafford 18.68
Green Bay Packers vs HOU:

Jordan Love - $6900

Jordan Love has two weeks of 16 & 17 points and two weeks of 26 & 34 points. The floor is nice, but his mark is 27 points vs. the #Texans, who allowed that in Week 1 (Richardson). Since then, there has been a low of 9 points (Caleb) and a high of 23 (Darnold). The game should arrive with points and Drake Maye found 22 points last week. While the production vs. HOU has been lower, the only name that deters Love as a play is Josh Allen, hitting 14 points. A side note with the GB receivers, including Kraft: ALL finished the week with limited practices (LP). While I'd throw concerns at it, it's too familiar to this team. #Packers
$6900 Jordan Love pts needed: 27.6
+300
$6600 26.62 pts wk6(ARI)
+100
$6500 16.96 pts wk5(LAR)
+500
$6000 34.16 pts wk4(MIN)
-400
$6400 17.40 pts wk1(PHI)
SEASON
snp%:
99.25
util%:
56.15
ppg:
23.79
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
57.43
ppg:
25.91
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
6.74 vs JAX -19.17 -17.05
HISTORY vs HOU
2024
18.80 points in Week 7

OPPONENTS vs. HOU

SEASON AVG vs HOU Rank
18.6 ppg 21st
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs HOU Rank
17.31 ppg 14th
DIFF
-1.29
WK PLAYERS vs. HOU POINTS
6 Drake Maye 22.52
5 Josh Allen 14.64
4 Trevor Lawrence 14.76
3 Sam Darnold 23.24
2 Caleb Williams 9.36
1 Anthony Richardson 27.08
Miami Dolphins vs IND:

Tyler Huntley - $5100

Tyler Huntley is where low salaries and risk merge. His production has been 12 & 7 points since taking the job with the #Dolphins. QBs vs. the #Colts have eaten 23+ points from Week 3 to Week 5 until Will Levis landed 8 points last week. Huntley's mark of 20 points seems probable, but his recent production makes it difficult to sell. Is he part of the recent Levis trend, or has a bye week helped get the offense's timing down? I'd lean toward the latter of gaining a floor here. Fair dart. #Dolphins
$5100 Tyler Huntley pts needed: 20.4
-500
$5600 7.46 pts wk5(NE)
+100
$5500 12.84 pts wk4(TEN)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
46.8
ppg:
10.15
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
46.8
ppg:
10.15
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
9.48 vs IND -0.67 -0.67
HISTORY vs IND
2024
9.48 points in Week 7

OPPONENTS vs. IND

SEASON AVG vs IND Rank
20.75 ppg 29th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs IND Rank
23.17 ppg 29th
DIFF
+2.42
WK PLAYERS vs. IND POINTS
6 Will Levis 8.30
5 Trevor Lawrence 25.24
4 Justin Fields 35.98
3 Caleb Williams 23.32
2 Malik Willis 12.98
1 C.J. Stroud 18.66
Los Angeles Rams vs LV:

Matthew Stafford - $5600

Cooper Kupp finished the week as a limited participant (LP), so downgrade this analysis if he doesn't go. Assuming Kupp is a go, Stafford's lowly output of 7-13 points over the last four weeks should improve toward his mark of 22 points. While he hasn't landed there yet this year, QBs (Fields, Nix, Dalton) have produced 23+ in three of four vs. the #Raiders, with Deshaun Watson being the outlier with 13 points (which presents pretty good, based on his season). The price is manageable for a shot, but obviously, it's nothing high on the radar. #Rams
$5600 Matthew Stafford pts needed: 22.4
+100
$5500 13.40 pts wk5(GB)
-100
$5600 6.86 pts wk4(CHI)
-100
$5700 12.84 pts wk3(SF)
-300
$6000 7.64 pts wk2(ARI)
-100
$6100 18.68 pts wk1(DET)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
52.94
ppg:
11.88
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
50
ppg:
11.03
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
25.76 vs MIN +14.73 +13.88
HISTORY vs LV
2024
4.96 points in Week 7
2019
29.84 points in Week 9

OPPONENTS vs. LV

SEASON AVG vs LV Rank
19.23 ppg 24th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs LV Rank
20.03 ppg 23rd
DIFF
+0.8
WK PLAYERS vs. LV POINTS
6 Justin Fields 23.70
5 Bo Nix 23.14
4 Deshaun Watson 13.24
3 Andy Dalton 27.56
2 Lamar Jackson 17.38
1 Justin Herbert 10.36
Detroit Lions vs MIN:

Jared Goff - $6500

Jared Goff scored 28 & 27 points over the last two weeks. While the #Vikings limited QBs to 18 or lower, except for Jordan Love (34), Goff and the #Lions are playing too well. His price is solid, with a fair mark of 26 points. The #Vikings have a top defense, but this game should land well with production. Most of the concern arrives with the RBs vulturing the TDs, but Goff's price is in line for a strong build. He landed 23 & 14 points vs. MIN last year. #Lions
$6500 Jared Goff pts needed: 26
+100
$6400 28.10 pts wk6(DAL)
-300
$6700 27.18 pts wk4(SEA)
+200
$6500 15.56 pts wk3(ARI)
+100
$6400 13.78 pts wk2(TB)
+100
$6300 12.38 pts wk1(LAR)
SEASON
snp%:
96.76
util%:
48.3
ppg:
19.4
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
94.6
util%:
42.3
ppg:
23.61
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
15.50 vs TEN -8.11 -3.9
HISTORY vs MIN
2024
18.80 points in Week 7
2023
23.80 points in Week18
14.28 points in Week16
2022
29.10 points in Week14
14.88 points in Week 3
2021
21.94 points in Week13
8.12 points in Week 5
2018
42.30 points in Week 4
2017
9.80 points in Week11

OPPONENTS vs. MIN

SEASON AVG vs MIN Rank
17.96 ppg 20th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs MIN Rank
21.29 ppg 24th
DIFF
+3.33
WK PLAYERS vs. MIN POINTS
5 Aaron Rodgers 14.76
4 Jordan Love 34.16
3 C.J. Stroud 11.80
3 Davis Mills 3.16
2 Brock Purdy 18.96
1 Daniel Jones 6.94
Philadelphia Eagles vs NYG:

Jalen Hurts - $7300

The #Eagles aren't playing well, but Hurts is still producing solid numbers, landing 15 as a floor and 24 as a ceiling. His mark (the concern) is 29 points vs. the #Giants. What I like about this matchup is the health of the #Giants' offense, which should help toward a shootout. The #Giants have a good defense, and while it's not explosive performances, QBs have found a floor of 16 since Week 3. This isn't a play to chase, but due to his price, he'll be overpassed, which could land sneakily in a game that usually presents sluggish. If the rest of the lineup lands nicely, I like the shot. #Eagles
$7300 Jalen Hurts pts needed: 29.2
+100
$7200 21.86 pts wk6(CLE)
0
$7200 17.32 pts wk4(TB)
-100
$7300 15.94 pts wk3(NO)
+100
$7200 24.82 pts wk2(ATL)
-100
$7300 19.42 pts wk1(GB)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
63.18
ppg:
19.87
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
64.5
ppg:
18.37
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
35.14 vs CIN +16.77 +15.27
HISTORY vs NYG
2024
22.76 points in Week 7
2023
1.60 points in Week18
27.44 points in Week16
2022
9.46 points in Week18
30.38 points in Week14
2021
16.66 points in Week16
9.86 points in Week12
2020
-0.10 points in Week10
0.20 points in Week 7

OPPONENTS vs. NYG

SEASON AVG vs NYG Rank
17.79 ppg 19th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs NYG Rank
19.71 ppg 22nd
DIFF
+1.92
WK PLAYERS vs. NYG POINTS
6 Joe Burrow 19.82
5 Geno Smith 22.56
4 Dak Prescott 16.74
3 Deshaun Watson 18.44
3 Jameis Winston 0.10
2 Jayden Daniels 13.44
1 Sam Darnold 15.62
Atlanta Falcons vs SEA:

Kirk Cousins - $6300

This is my favorite play at the position. Kirky landed 38 points two weeks ago and returned to life with 12 points last week, which aligns with most of his production throughout the season (8-17 points). With that, this is why I love data. The #Seahawks are the 14th ranked vs. QBs on the season, but over the last three weeks, they are 31st, a +6.95 differential. Seattle allowed 12, 10, & 4 points to QBs to start the season against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. Since then, they've allowed 27, 22, & 24 points vs. Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy. Both 3-week trends tell the story I can't ignore. Does that mean Kirky will explode for 40 points? No, but his mark of 25 points presents highly probable, which is the goal here. #Falcons
$6300 Kirk Cousins pts needed: 25.2
+100
$6200 12.50 pts wk6(CAR)
+600
$5600 38.36 pts wk5(TB)
-200
$5800 8.52 pts wk4(NO)
-100
$5900 12.10 pts wk3(KC)
-100
$6000 17.54 pts wk2(PHI)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
54.88
ppg:
16.2
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
59.27
ppg:
19.79
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
28.64 vs TB +8.85 +12.44
HISTORY vs SEA
2024
10.18 points in Week 7
2021
28.12 points in Week 3
2020
16.16 points in Week 5
2019
18.04 points in Week13
2018
11.82 points in Week14
2017
9.28 points in Week 9

OPPONENTS vs. SEA

SEASON AVG vs SEA Rank
17.5 ppg 18th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs SEA Rank
24.45 ppg 31st
DIFF
+6.95
WK PLAYERS vs. SEA POINTS
6 Brock Purdy 24.10
5 Daniel Jones 22.08
4 Jared Goff 27.18
3 Skylar Thompson 4.28
3 Tim Boyle 3.76
2 Jacoby Brissett 10.56
1 Bo Nix 13.02
Carolina Panthers vs WAS:

Andy Dalton - $5200

The #Commanders' defense is hard to read, as they allowed three QBs to land 22+ points (LJ, Burrow, & Mayfield) and Daniel Jones to hit 18 points but limited Kyler & Watson to 9 points. Andy Dalton is similar. He explodes for 27 points when taking the starting job, then follows up the next three weeks with 16, 4, & 16 points. His mark is 20 points, so it's not a hard reach in a game where he should have to pass with the production of Washington's offense. Landing 16 points, which he's done in two of the last three weeks, seems fair. You'll need a little help. #Panthers
$5200 Andy Dalton pts needed: 20.8
0
$5200 16.94 pts wk6(ATL)
-200
$5400 4.74 pts wk5(CHI)
+100
$5300 16.70 pts wk4(CIN)
+500
$4800 27.56 pts wk3(LV)
0
$4800 0.00 pts wk1(NO)
SEASON
snp%:
78.7
util%:
50.62
ppg:
13.19
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
95
util%:
60.13
ppg:
12.79
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
2.02 vs WAS -10.77 -11.17
HISTORY vs WAS
2024
2.02 points in Week 7
2020
13.30 points in Week12
3.60 points in Week 7

OPPONENTS vs. WAS

SEASON AVG vs WAS Rank
19.8 ppg 27th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs WAS Rank
14.21 ppg 7th
DIFF
-5.59
WK PLAYERS vs. WAS POINTS
6 Lamar Jackson 22.92
5 Deshaun Watson 9.40
5 Jameis Winston 0.34
4 Kyler Murray 9.98
3 Joe Burrow 28.36
2 Daniel Jones 18.32
1 Baker Mayfield 29.66