DraftKings Main Slate for Week 15 - Running Back (RB)

It's hard to trust the #Patriots' offense, but finding a running back who snaps 77% (last week) and at a low price tag is hard to ignore. Stevenson has snapped 65% in the last three weeks but hasn't produced much since Week 9 (22 points), scoring 12 points or fewer in the previous four weeks. This promotion wouldn't be ideal without Zach Charbonnet exploding to 41 points last week. Stevenson isn't producing, and neither were the opponents against the #Cardinals, limiting RBs to 14 points or fewer from Week 9 to Week 13. There isn't much here to warrant any chase toward his 23-point mark, but maybe Charbonnet was the start of a positive trend, and the volume and opportunities should be there. #Patriots

The #Bills have allowed volatile production to RBs, with nine weeks of 19 points or fewer, including six games of 14 points or fewer and five games of 24+ points, including three games of 29+ points. If there were one RB for the #Lions, I'd likely go out of my way to take a shot here, but due to both, it makes it a challenging climb to their price tags. Since we are not analyzing hypotheticals, they both have produced, with Montgomery scoring 15+ points in the last four games and a snap count of 42% in the last three games. Jahmyr Gibbs has 19+ points in three of the previous four games and 56% of the snaps in the last three games. Usually, we receive a better discount with Montgomery, but his price has climbed to 7k with Gibbs at 7.5k. If I had to pursue one, it likely would be Gibbs due to the higher floor and game script that should warrant more receptions. #Lions

By the numbers, Rico Dowdle lands the best matchup against the #Panthers. This promoted better to start the season than currently, but the #Panthers are still allowing production to the position, as they've allowed 17+ in the last two weeks. Obviously, the #Cowboys' running game isn't ideal, but Dowdle has produced 18+ points in the previous two weeks. He's priced just in that place that I don't love for this shot, but it's not an impossible path to his 24-point mark. The best way to express my consideration for Dowdle is that I will gladly accept him in a strong build as a final piece, but I'm not likely to start with him when I start the build. #Cowboys

Tony Pollard finished the week limited after two DNPs. He's played with three DNPs, so we can't gain anything to clarify where this lands and if he's going to retain his workload. It's challenging because it's a phenomenal spot against the #Bengals, who allowed 18+ points in the last three weeks. You can afford the potential bust at a lower price, but his price tag is a 26-point mark. Retaining his previous floors would be a rational path of utilizing him, even without hitting his mark. With all those concerns, his recent numbers offer some appeal. He's climbed from a 10-point or fewer ceiling in Weeks 10, 11, and 13 to a 17-point floor in Weeks 12 and 14. I expect most to steer clear of this unless he's out, which makes him a sneaky play...with a ton of risk. If he's out, it lands Julius Chestnut and Tyjae Spears as interesting darts. I like the splash appeal of Spears, but I would anticipate a 50-50 timeshare, keeping Chestnut as a solid piece to build around. #Titans

Jonathan Brooks looked solid and likely a disruptor toward Chuba Hubbard's volume going forward, but unfortunately, Brooks is out for the season. Due to Brooks, Chuba's climbing price slowed and created a fantastic price tag for an RB who has snapped 88% in the last three weeks, including 97% last week. While I don't anticipate 90+ percent to continue, 80+ percent is still likely. He's facing the improved #Cowboys' Defense, who slowed RB production to 14 points or fewer in two of the last three weeks. While that seems a deterrent, the anomaly was last week with Chase Brown scoring 24 points, which may be a sign of the defense reverting to their poor run play, especially with their top LB now out for the season. What I appreciate most about Chuba Hubbard is that he can be found in the air or on the ground. He's a solid play toward his 26-point mark. #Panthers

These are hard promotions to make, but they are similar to my promotion of Rachaad White last week, which hit. There is always a ton of discomfort with the sneaky plays, which is precisely where Javonte Williams lands against the #Colts. His 51% snap count over the last three weeks isn't appealing. His 10 points or fewer in four of the last five games aren't appealing. Like his outlier against the #Falcons, where he scored 18 points, this game presents some need for the running game, as the #Colts have allowed 12+ points in the last four weeks, 15+ in three games, and 24+ in two games. His mark is only 20 points. While Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime can play spoilers, Williams lands as a healthy dart due to his price tag. #Broncos

Primarily, I've used RBs against the #Jaguars, as they've allowed 17+ points in the last three weeks and, similarly, most of the season. Breece Hall practiced in full on Friday, likely meaning he should play. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis played well last week, especially Davis. It creates challenges with him going, as we don't know the expected usage for Hall. With all of these concerns come opportunities. While they are filled with risks, most will avoid them without clarity. Use your tolerance, but I like Breece Hall as a potential tournament winner and Davis as a sneaky pivot. #Jets

This backfield produces one way or the other, with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving scoring 17 points each four weeks ago, Irving following that up with 27 and 30 points, and White finishing last week with 24 points. The #Chargers have been friendly, allowing 17+ points in three of the previous four weeks, with the #Chiefs' backfield as the outlier last week (Pacheco returning and Hunt slowing down). I promoted White the previous week due to Bucky's back and hip injury, which he's still dealing with, ending the week limited after two DNPs. I'd continue with the lower price tag of White unless you receive some positive news about Irving, as he only snapped 16% last week. White snapped 75%. #Buccaneers

The matchup against the #Dolphins is less appealing to Mixon's 24+ points in two of his last three games. While the #Dolphins have allowed 15+ points in the last two weeks, they limited RBs to 14 points or fewer from Weeks 7-12, with one outlier of 17 points in Week 9 (Ray Davis). Those numbers aren't horrendous for using a running back, but it becomes a lofty climb when the running back's mark is 31 points. There is room here for a shot because Mixon has his way of arriving when least expected, especially where his roster percentage should be down. #Texans

Whenever I have the #Cardinals' backfield figured out, they mix it up. James Conner was mainly a good play due to his volume each week, which was the case most of the season, and then Trey Benson and Emari Demercado arrived to play spoilers. Emari Demercado is out, so this week, only Benson is a threat to Conner's workload and solid matchup against the #Patriots, who allowed 17+ points in the last two weeks. Conner has scored that or better in three of the previous five weeks, including 22 points in Week 10 and last week. He's a solid play to finish the slate toward his 26-point mark. #Cardinals

Brian Robinson should land in a positive game script against the #Saints, who have allowed 19+ points since Week 9, except against the poor running game of the #Browns. The challenge with chasing Robinson is that he landed similarly against the #Titans, scoring 15+ points by halftime and then finishing with 20. I'm unsure if the blowout played a factor, which you'd think would increase Robinson's touches or if they are attempting to limit his usage to keep him healthy. I lean toward him gaining more rest due to coming off of injury, but I don't expect them to limit him going forward, especially after a bye week. He's priced for an achievable 24-point mark. #Commanders

This promotion presents eerily familiar to Alvin Kamara last week, who had a letdown of 12 points against the #Giants. Before that game, NY allowed 17+ points back to Week 7 and 24+ points in the previous three weeks. If Kamara scored Kendre Miller's touchdown, it would've savaged his play, promoting Henry even more. While I expect a high roster percentage with Henry, the jaded owners of Kamara from last week and Henry's high price tag might be enough to limit the high ownership to the teens instead of the 20+ percent. Henry's recent production of 17 points or fewer in the last four games is also concerning, especially if LJ plays the spoiler. He's a little pricey to chase at his 33-point mark, but a 20-point floor should arrive toward that chase. #Ravens

The #Jaguars attempt to hide Mac Jones with the running game, which they can do until the #Jaguars are forced to play catchup. Against the #Titans, the script should be favorable to maintain the running game. While it's hard to take your shot with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, I like one to surprise against the #Jets. NY hasn't been giving, limiting RBs to 18 points or fewer in the last three weeks, but previous to that, allowed a stretch of 18+ points from Week 6-10. If I had to go with one, I'd prefer a shot at Bigsby. #Jaguar

It's hard to chase this price tag because even though the #Steelers are more vulnerable to the run, they have been limiting that production to 19 points or fewer since Week 10, including 11 points or fewer in two games. The upside of Saquon Barkley arrives with 17+ points in the last four games, including 22, 36, and 49 points. This doesn't present like a game toward his 34-point mark, but it likely will have a heavy-volume script in his favor to overcome the climb. If you can fit him in there, he's worth a shot, but I'm not building a garbage lineup to have him. #Eagles

While researching this outside of my data, I noticed that everyone keeps promoting the #Commanders as the 28th-ranked defense against the run. While fantasy points and yardage aren't identical, they are usually within a similar output. The #Commanders are 12th in points against RBs. It's not a disparity to run from, but knowing what that 12 or 28 represents is crucial, as the #Commanders are not a layup regarding RBs. They're more volatile to the position than consistently bad. They allowed 15 points or fewer in 8 games and 11 points or fewer in six games while also allowing 15+ points in seven games and 20+ points in five games. Alvin Kamara is in a position for continued volume play, but as soon as Taysom Hill is removed from vaulting TDs from AK, Kendre Miller finds his way to do the same with 26% of the snaps. His recent production of 18 points or fewer in the last four games limits the chase toward his 30-point mark, which he scored before starting that four-game trend. #Saints