DraftKings Main Slate for Week 15 - Quarterback (QB)

There is a significant amount of confusion with how to approach Tommy DeVitto against the #Ravens. Baltimore is 30th worst against QBs but 2nd best in the last three weeks, limiting Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson to 17 points or fewer. On a stretch from Week 5 to Week 10, the #Ravens allowed 18+ points and 27+ points in four games. This should be a get-right game for the #Ravens, but Tommy DeVito is listed for consideration because he's priced for a 17-point mark and garbage time (or the surprise). I can't warrant him in a single-entry game, but he's worth a shot as your only risk piece in multi-entries. #Ravens

The game promotes better than the numbers, as it's fair to anticipate many paths to use on this slate between the #Bills and #Lions, especially indoors in Detroit. Before Stafford scored 23 points last week against the #Bills, Buffalo had limited QBs to 17 points or fewer since Week 6. Jared Goff isn't the easiest to trust, but his production volatility has the price baked into it. You can swing this following statement two ways, as Goff has scored 16+ in three of the last five weeks, including 37 points in Week 11 and 23 points last week...or Goff has scored 16 points or fewer in three of the previous five weeks, including 12 points in Week 10 and 10 points in Week 12 (I didn't anticipate it, but I like that little play of 12 for 10 and 10 for 12). My adoration for numbers aside, Goff's 26-point mark is in consideration in a script that should require him to hit. While the #Lions' Defense showed up against the #Packers last week, they are injured too much to keep the #Bills quiet. While you'd love to chase Josh Allen's price tag, Goff isn't a bad pivot. #Lions

Will Levis is always a deep ball away from hitting his marks. He faces the #Bengals, who allowed 25+ points in three of the last four weeks, with Cooper Rush as the outlier at 14 points last week. Levis should find that or better toward his 20-point mark. He scored 16+ points in four of the previous five weeks, with a huge letdown of 7 against the #Jaguars last week. The matchup is too good not to be considered, and his price allows for a solid build. #Titans

Patrick Mahomes has consistently been in this price range all season. We all would assume we'd have a steal at this discount, but it's warranted. He scored 19 or fewer in four of the last five games, with 28 points against the #Panthers as the outlier two weeks ago. Even with the Jameis effect, it hasn't translated for opposing quarterbacks, who have scored 19 points or fewer since Week 9. As much as the data doesn't support it, I like it more because fewer will flock here. If you told me at the beginning of the season that I could have a solid build with Patrick Mahomes at less than 5%, I'd say to you I'd win a Million Dollars that week. So...here we are. #Chiefs

While there are some numbers to support Anthony Richardson against the #Broncos, the matchup isn't ideal. The reason for Richardson's consideration is that he's priced too low. I know he's volatile, but his upside lands as 6k or better to balance the play or not. He's scored 23+ points in two of his last three games. His mark is 23 points against the #Broncos' Defense, who I've advised about their "friendly" schedule to start the season. While I state that, I want to clarify that Denver has a good unit. It wasn't aligning with the "shut-down" defense that people and the numbers promoted. In addition to those contrasts, the #Colts aren't exactly lighting the world on fire, but the reason for his consideration is that he doesn't need to be on fire to land his mark. This should be a competitive game in a playoff atmosphere. I also like Bo Nix, but there wasn't much data to overtly "sell" his narrative. I offer the Bo Nix plug because he's 6k+, which is why Richardson is here, and he isn't. Anything under that price tag warrants strong consideration, while Nix is priced more reasonably. #Colts

Like the write-up about Jared Goff, the numbers against the #Lions don't appeal, limiting QBs to 14 points or fewer since Week 9, except for 26 points to Caleb Williams. We know Josh Allen is an anomaly. He has scored 20+ points in the last five weeks, including a blazing 54 points last week. His mark is 34 points, which he's only surpassed once this season (last week). I wish I could assist further than these numbers. The best I can offer is that Josh Allen is a starting point for a build. If you can land with comfortable low-priced options and love the build, I recommend rolling with it. If the lineup looks impossible to produce, you may have to find an alternative. The factor that always simplifies it is that 20 points or fewer from his price tag is not a success. If you can't land here, there are plenty of options this week, but I'd still ensure to build at least one multi-entry around him. #Bills

Tua Tagovailoa has quietly scored 23+ points in the last four weeks, with a mark of 1 point above that at 24 points. He faces the #Texans, who haven't allowed that mark since Week 1. While the ceiling isn't a strong probability, the floors of 18-22 have arrived for eight games this season, including the last three against the lesser offenses led by Cooper Rush, Will Levis, and Mac Jones. Tua is not a bad place to land this week. #Dolphins

Aaron Rodgers has scored 15+ points in four of the last five games, including 20 points in Week 9 and last week. The #Jaguars slowed QBs to 14 points or fewer in the previous two weeks. They've allowed splashes of big games throughout the season, which is less likely to arrive in this game script, but it still should arrive within Rodger's 21-point mark. He's not someone you want to build with, but he's not the worst place to settle if you can stack the rest. #Jets

Jameis is always in play at sub 6k, matchups aside. This week, he faces the #Chiefs, which doesn't promote the anticipated shootout that may arrive, as KC has only allowed four 20+ points this season. They've limited QBs to 18 points or fewer the rest of the way, including 13 points or fewer in four games. While he scored 13 points five weeks ago, he's hit 15+ points in the last four games, including 29 and 38 points. Winston can always be the anomaly, and he's priced fairly enough to afford those potential busts but also demolish his 22-point mark. At least it should be exciting wherever it lands. #Buccaneers

CJ Stroud faces the top-ranked defense against quarterbacks, which requires a little more understanding of those numbers. Tua Tagvailoa was injured during Week 2 of the season and returned in Week 8. While Trevor Lawrence's 11 points in Week 1 don't fit this narrative, most of the QBs' limitations were partly due to the #Dolphins' struggling offense. From Week 1-7, QBs scored 13 points or fewer against Miami, but from Week 8-14, QBs have scored 15+ every game except one. While the ceiling of 25 doesn't promote significant high-end games, Stroud only has a mark of 24 points. His production has been poor, scoring 17 points or fewer in the last five games. He's not someone I love this week, but I think it's essential to identify why or why not you're playing him compared to avoiding him because a red one (1) appears next to his name. This article below will help you understand my frustrations with that: https://gridirongod.com/sos/ #Texans

QBs against the #Patriots have been continually promoted most of the season. New England has allowed a floor of 15+ points in all but three games and 23+ points in the last three games. Kyler Murray doesn't promote the safest floor, scoring 11 points or fewer in two of the previous five games, but has found a floor of 17+ points in the outliers. His mark of 24 points and the matchup keep him in consideration, but I agree that it's hard to pull that trigger in a single entry. Most will feel the same, making him a strong contrarian shot this week. #Cardinals

I'd like this play much more if Derek Carr was playing. Unfortunately, he's not, which creates some challenges toward Jayden Daniels's 30-point mark. He's hit 28 and 32 points in his last two games before the bye week, so it's not an extreme reach. The #Saints seem to keep things competitive enough, whoever is under center or in any of the injured positions they have across the board (which is a lot). New Orleans has allowed 15+ points in the last three weeks, including 29 points to Winston. Expect that floor or better with Daniels, but you'll need help toward his ceiling and mark. While it's less likely, the reason he's listed here is not only because he's a good play but because most will accept Burrow at $200 less, making him an interesting shot to steal a tournament. #Commanders

Lamar Jackson was reeling to get back on the field after losing to the #Eagles. While I expect Derrick Henry to splash, this game may be a thrashing due to the poor showings in big games for the #Ravens. The data doesn't support Jackson against the #Giants, as they've limited QB to 19 points or fewer since Week 8. While LJ should overcome that ceiling, as he's scored 15+ points in the last five weeks, including 22+ in four games, he's tough to chase at his price tag and a mark of 33 points. I like him better for multi-entries than single, as Henry and the Defense may spoil a chance of that high ceiling, but he's still worth a lineup. #Ravens

By the numbers, Justin Herbert lands the best matchup against the #Buccaneers, who slowed production to 10 points or fewer in two of the last three weeks. While that is the case, those outputs were from Tommy DeVitto and Aidan O'Connell, with Bryce Young landing the outlier of 23 points. Before that, Tampa Bay allowed 26+ points since Week 5, except for Spencer Rattler, who scored 14 points. While Herbert's numbers aren't popping, scoring 13 points or fewer in the last two weeks, he produced 17-25 points in the three weeks before. Expect closer to that range, as the #Chargers are struggling with the running game since JK Dobbins was sidelined. HIs mark of 23 points is reachable for a strong build. #Buccaneers

Joe Burrow doesn't get much safer with his 25+ points in the last five weeks. The matchup is solid against the #Titans, who allowed 15+ points since Week 8, except for Mac Jones's 7 points last week. Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels scored 24 and 28 points in the timeframe. The question isn't whether Burrow will likely hit 20 points or even his 25-point floor. It's if he's going to pay the bills with his 29-point mark. While he hasn't found that in his last two games, it arrived in the three games prior. The #Titans are tough against the run, so it should force Burrow to continue to throw, but the challenge is whether Levis and the #Titans can exploit the #Bengals' poor defense. He's worth the chase to attempt to build around him, but I'm not building it ugly just to stuff him in there. #Bengals