DraftKings Main Slate for Week 14 - Running Back (RB)

To free square or not? The data doesn't support it from a matchup standpoint, as the #Cardinals haven't allowed an RB to score more than 14 points since Week 9. While there are concerns with the defense, Charbonnet has done well when filling in, and the volume should be there to work toward or above Charbonnet's 19-point mark. This should help cut into some of Guerrendo's roster percentage. I like the value. #Seahawks

Kyren Williams reemerged last week to 21 points since scoring 12 or fewer in the previous four weeks. His snap count was 67% last week and 79% over the previous three weeks, down from his 86% on the season. Blake Corum has found a 20-30% role in this backfield, which is some cause for concern, but the positive is WIlliams's recent production with the lower snap count. He'll be needed in this game, which should garner receptions to his rushing total against the #Bills. While Buffalo kept RBs quiet in the last two weeks to 8 points or fewer, they have allowed some splashes to Breece Hall (24), Achane (29, 32), and Henry (38). He should receive enough volume toward a shot of his 29-point mark. #Rams

By the numbers, Saquon Barkley lands the best matchup against the #Panthers. The production here is sporadic, with 22+ points from Week 1 to 6, 19 points in Week 10, and 30-point splashes in Weeks 9 and 13. Barkley fits the mold to land in that 30+ point conversation, but chasing 9k on this slate is an uphill climb. With all of the salary relief, Barkley can fit with a decent build. It all comes down to the build when you're chasing a player with a 36-point mark. If you have to park him next to a bunch of "what-ifs," I'd suggest moving onto a better build, but if you can find a path of strong possibilities and probabilities, I'd recommend rolling. #Eagles

To free square or not? With CMC and Mason on IR, Isaac Guerendo lands in a league-winner role. He faces the #Bears, who allowed 15+ points in the last three weeks, including 23 to Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs. It also includes the combo of the Lions' RBs scoring 15 and 11 points (26 combined points). If Guerendo carries the share, his 21-point mark seems like a layup. Assuming his volume and outside of an injury, there is no reason not to take this square. The Devil's Advocate analysis is that he will likely land at 40-50% ownership, which is a significant way to steal a tournament if he busts. While it doesn't seem likely, the risk of that pivot is well worth it if you're on the fence. #49ers

While the #Jaguars have mainly been the second-worst team against RBs, they've been more consistent than the worst (#Panthers). Every team has produced a 15-point RB against the #Jaguars, except the #Browns (their running game has been poor all season) and #Vikings (Aaron Jones was injured, snapping about 10-15% lower than his standard, but still rushing for 88 yards). There are always anomalies and x-factors, but outside of Will Levis torching the #Jaguars, Tyjae Spears snaking the production, or an injury, Tony Pollard should see 15+ points. He'll need ten more points to hit his mark of 25, which is in range. #Titans

The #Rams have kept RBs quiet with 16 points or fewer from Week 5 to Week 11. They've allowed 18 and 49 points to Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley in the last two weeks. James Cook can continue that trend, as he's produced 15+ points in four of his last five weeks, including 19 and 22 points in the last two weeks. He's priced a little high for his 52% snap count on the season and 45% snap count in the last three weeks. I like his chances in this game script, but I'd prefer him at a lower price, as his mark is 28 points. It's not a bad place to land, but it's hard to chase. #Bills

The last two weeks' matchups against the #Raiders have been poor, with the #Chiefs and #Broncos scoring 5 points or fewer. Before that, the #Raiders allowed a floor of 13 and a ceiling of 30 points, including 20+ points in five games. Bucky Irving scored 27 and 30 points in the last two weeks but has landed on the injury report, finishing the week limited. Irving is still a good play if he goes, but with the injury, I like Rachaad White as a sneaky play since they've snapped similarly, with both sharing the backfield equally. Keep playing Bucky, but I like the pivot here. #Buccaneers

With Breece Hall out, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis offer more salary relief on the slate. Davis is the sneaky play, as most don't know about him. I'd expect a 50-50 timeshare, or at worst, 60-40% in favor of Allen. The matchup is less intriguing due to the poor #Jets' offense and because the #Dolphins have limited production to the RB position. While Josh Jacobs landed 21 points last week, Miami limited RBs to 12 points or fewer in the four previous weeks and 19 points or fewer back to Week 4. With their low marks of 16 and 20 points, both backs allow for solid builds. I lean toward Allen, and the goal line carries. #Jets

Tyrone Tracy is likely falling off most people's radar due to his recent 10 and 14-point performances in the last two weeks. His snap and usage are still similar, so the challenge is betting on a bad offense, which may require more help if Nabers doesn't play. Additionally, it's a good matchup against the #Saints, who have allowed 16+ points against RBs since Week 6, except for the poor #Browns' rushing attack (Week 11). Most will go elsewhere, but Tracy is a solid play toward his 23-point mark. #Giants

Alvin Kamara has been a volume play with all the injuries with the #Saints. Now, adding Taysom Hill to that injury report to limit his impedance to Kamara's already high volume and touchdowns, he presents a chase toward a high salary against the #Giants. New York has allowed 24+ points in the last three weeks. It's hard not to chase here. #Saints

Alexander Mattison finished the week limited. While I expect him to play, I don't expect him to retain the snap share, as Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick have produced with their opportunities. It likely hurts all of them, which may land more as a hot-hand approach than assuming any role. The #Buccaneers have limited RBs to 10 points or fewer in the last two weeks. McCormick snapped 38%, and Abdullah snapped 61% last week. The only one I trust is Abdullah, as he should maintain a 3rd-down role and some early work, which SHOULD keep him at 50%+ toward his 18-point mark. #Raiders