DraftKings Main Slate for Week 14 - Quarterback (QB)

Minnesota Vikings vs ATL:

Sam Darnold - $6100

Sam Darnold is priced for a solid build and a solid floor toward his 24-point mark. He's scored 19+ points in four of the last five weeks and faces the #Falcons, who've allowed 20+ points every week since Week 8, except last week (Herbert). With the significant turnovers last week, it didn't require much of Herbert, so I assess that as an anomaly. It's a solid play...assuming the #Vikings' D doesn't land similarly. #Vikings
$6100 Sam Darnold pts needed: 24.4
+200
$5900 19.60 pts wk13(ARI)
0
$5900 24.10 pts wk12(CHI)
-200
$6100 24.64 pts wk11(TEN)
-100
$6200 9.44 pts wk10(JAX)
+200
$6000 22.00 pts wk9(IND)
SEASON
snp%:
99.38
util%:
53.36
ppg:
18.65
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
99.07
util%:
57.67
ppg:
22.78
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
28.78 vs GB +6 +10.13
HISTORY vs ATL
2024
37.58 points in Week14
2021
11.76 points in Week 8

OPPONENTS vs. ATL

SEASON AVG vs ATL Rank
19.35 ppg 26th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs ATL Rank
20.07 ppg 19th
DIFF
+0.72
WK PLAYERS vs. ATL POINTS
13 Justin Herbert 7.98
11 Bo Nix 31.78
10 Derek Carr 20.46
9 Dak Prescott 12.32
9 Cooper Rush 11.00
8 Baker Mayfield 27.30
7 Geno Smith 17.78
6 Andy Dalton 16.94
5 Baker Mayfield 23.40
4 Derek Carr 9.06
3 Patrick Mahomes 17.38
2 Jalen Hurts 24.82
1 Justin Fields 11.94
Los Angeles Rams vs BUF:

Matthew Stafford - $5700

The production against the #Bills has been 18 points or fewer since Week 6. It limits the appeal to punch Matthew Stafford in your lineup, but the game script leans toward garbage time, at a minimum. Stafford has the weapons to produce, scoring 15+ points in four of the last five weeks and 18+ points in three games. He should provide a good-enough floor toward his 22-point mark while allowing a strong build around him. #Rams
$5700 Matthew Stafford pts needed: 22.8
-100
$5800 15.62 pts wk13(NO)
-100
$5900 19.22 pts wk12(PHI)
+100
$5800 27.80 pts wk11(NE)
+200
$5600 10.72 pts wk10(MIA)
-100
$5700 18.92 pts wk9(SEA)
SEASON
snp%:
100
util%:
54.54
ppg:
15.2
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
55.8
ppg:
20.88
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
9.16 vs ARI -11.72 -6.04
HISTORY vs BUF
2024
23.80 points in Week14
2022
10.80 points in Week 1
2018
12.32 points in Week15

OPPONENTS vs. BUF

SEASON AVG vs BUF Rank
14.7 ppg 4th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs BUF Rank
11.96 ppg 1st
DIFF
-2.74
WK PLAYERS vs. BUF POINTS
13 Brock Purdy 3.16
11 Patrick Mahomes 17.84
10 Joe Flacco 14.88
9 Tua Tagovailoa 17.54
8 Geno Smith 9.08
7 Mason Rudolph 11.90
6 Aaron Rodgers 18.76
5 C.J. Stroud 20.94
4 Lamar Jackson 24.64
4 Josh Johnson 0.04
3 Trevor Lawrence 10.42
2 Tua Tagovailoa 8.50
2 Skylar Thompson 3.60
1 Kyler Murray 15.18
Tennessee Titans vs JAX:

Will Levis - $5000

By the numbers, Will Levis lands the best matchup against the #Jaguars, who allowed intermittent production to the position in the last five weeks after surrendering 20+ since Week 2. The anomalies involve Jordan Love getting injured, Sam Darnold, and CJ Stroud. Due to the last two names, there is some concern that the #Jaguars are limiting production, but Levis has established a floor of 16 points in the last four weeks. Expect the floor to continue with his mark of 20 points in range...or better—fair play to build around. #Titans
$5000 Will Levis pts needed: 20
0
$5000 16.18 pts wk13(WAS)
+100
$4900 18.12 pts wk12(HOU)
-200
$5100 16.60 pts wk11(MIN)
+200
$4900 19.10 pts wk10(LAC)
+100
$4800 8.30 pts wk6(IND)
SEASON
snp%:
90.77
util%:
57.16
ppg:
13.17
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
100
util%:
61.03
ppg:
16.97
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
-0.44 vs CIN -17.41 -13.61
HISTORY vs JAX
2024
7.02 points in Week14
2023
13.52 points in Week11

OPPONENTS vs. JAX

SEASON AVG vs JAX Rank
23.67 ppg 32nd
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs JAX Rank
21.06 ppg 26th
DIFF
-2.61
WK PLAYERS vs. JAX POINTS
13 C.J. Stroud 14.38
11 Jared Goff 37.58
11 Hendon Hooker 1.78
10 Sam Darnold 9.44
9 Jalen Hurts 29.90
8 Malik Willis 8.54
8 Jordan Love 6.74
7 Drake Maye 20.84
6 Caleb Williams 29.64
5 Joe Flacco 30.56
4 C.J. Stroud 26.50
3 Josh Allen 30.92
3 Mitchell Trubisky 0.02
2 Deshaun Watson 15.44
2 Jameis Winston 0.40
1 Tua Tagovailoa 21.62
Buffalo Bills vs LAR:

Josh Allen - $8000

While Josh Allen isn't hitting his mark most weeks, when you have a condensed slate, sometimes it's easy to chase the safe floor of 20+ points, which he's delivered in the last five weeks. This game against the #Rams should require more, with the game away and the #Rams being a better offense. The challenge with chasing the extremely high mark of 32 points arrives with the #Rams limiting QBs to 19 points or fewer since Week 10. You'll need the shootout or James Cook to avoid the endzone. #Bills
$8000 Josh Allen pts needed: 32
+200
$7800 28.42 pts wk13(SF)
0
$7800 24.98 pts wk11(KC)
+100
$7700 20.20 pts wk10(IND)
0
$7700 23.10 pts wk9(MIA)
-100
$7800 20.82 pts wk8(SEA)
SEASON
snp%:
93.91
util%:
58.84
ppg:
21.81
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
90.9
util%:
59.77
ppg:
24.53
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
22.98 vs NYJ -1.55 +1.17
HISTORY vs LAR
2024
54.88 points in Week14
2022
33.48 points in Week 1
2020
36.24 points in Week 3

OPPONENTS vs. LAR

SEASON AVG vs LAR Rank
17.07 ppg 15th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs LAR Rank
16.47 ppg 8th
DIFF
-0.6
WK PLAYERS vs. LAR POINTS
13 Derek Carr 14.56
12 Jalen Hurts 15.06
11 Drake Maye 19.98
10 Tua Tagovailoa 10.18
9 Geno Smith 28.12
8 Sam Darnold 18.20
7 Gardner Minshew II 2.36
7 Aidan OConnell 2.08
5 Jordan Love 16.96
4 Caleb Williams 11.48
3 Brock Purdy 26.78
2 Kyler Murray 28.54
1 Jared Goff 12.38
Atlanta Falcons vs MIN:

Kirk Cousins - $5500

The matchup against the #Vikings doesn't present a layup, but Kirk Cousins hit the hopeful rock-bottom last week. Similarly to Jared Goff's bounce back of his five-interception game, Kirky has a chance to bounce back and arrives with the revenge narrative if you're into those headlines. His price has dropped $1200 since Week 10, scoring 14, 5, and 6 points. His mark is 22 points, which seems like an uphill climb when assessing his last three weeks. This is what #DFS is all about. It doesn't always "feel" comfortable. Hopefully, to add some, he is in familiar territory playing at Minnesota, who has allowed 16+ in the last three weeks, including 29 points to Caleb Williams. #Falcons
$5500 Kirk Cousins pts needed: 22
-500
$6000 6.10 pts wk13(LAC)
-500
$6500 5.92 pts wk11(DEN)
-200
$6700 14.24 pts wk10(NO)
+300
$6400 18.78 pts wk9(DAL)
+200
$6200 28.64 pts wk8(TB)
SEASON
snp%:
97.37
util%:
53.63
ppg:
15.09
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
92.67
util%:
53
ppg:
8.75
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
7.48 vs LV -1.27 -7.61
HISTORY vs MIN
2024
14.76 points in Week14
2017
31.58 points in Week10

OPPONENTS vs. MIN

SEASON AVG vs MIN Rank
17.61 ppg 19th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs MIN Rank
21.23 ppg 27th
DIFF
+3.62
WK PLAYERS vs. MIN POINTS
13 Kyler Murray 17.20
12 Caleb Williams 29.90
11 Will Levis 16.60
10 Mac Jones 8.24
9 Joe Flacco 5.06
8 Matthew Stafford 25.76
7 Jared Goff 18.80
5 Aaron Rodgers 14.76
4 Jordan Love 34.16
3 C.J. Stroud 11.80
3 Davis Mills 3.16
2 Brock Purdy 18.96
1 Daniel Jones 6.94
New York Giants vs NO:

Drew Lock - $4700

Drew Lock lands as a price chase rather than the allure of his numbers or the matchup against the #Saints. While New Orleans has 15 and 29 points in the last two weeks, they've limited QBs to 14 or fewer points in six games this season. There isn't much safety here, including whether Malik Nabers plays, creating much less allure. The negatives aside, he's still priced to build around and only needs 18 points to pay the bills. Last week, he scored 16 points against the #Cowboys, so it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I wouldn't recommend him for a single entry, but I like the approach of stacking Wan'Dale Robinson or Darius Slayton and stacking the rest in a multi-entry. #Giants
$4700 Drew Lock pts needed: 18.8
+200
$4500 16.82 pts wk13(DAL)
-200
$4700 0.12 pts wk12(TB)
+300
$4400 1.54 pts wk7(PHI)
-400
$4800 0.00 pts wk2(WAS)
SEASON
snp%:
40.8
util%:
77.37
ppg:
6.16
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
40.8
util%:
77.37
ppg:
6.16
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
37.36 vs IND +31.2 +31.2
HISTORY vs NO
2024
15.98 points in Week14

OPPONENTS vs. NO

SEASON AVG vs NO Rank
17.39 ppg 17th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs NO Rank
19.82 ppg 17th
DIFF
+2.43
WK PLAYERS vs. NO POINTS
13 Matthew Stafford 15.62
11 Jameis Winston 29.60
10 Kirk Cousins 14.24
9 Bryce Young 10.74
8 Justin Herbert 24.06
7 Bo Nix 14.06
6 Baker Mayfield 31.90
5 Patrick Mahomes 17.44
4 Kirk Cousins 8.52
3 Jalen Hurts 15.94
2 Dak Prescott 14.92
2 Cooper Rush 0.24
1 Bryce Young 11.64
Cleveland Browns vs PIT:

Jameis Winston - $5400

Famous Jameis never gets old. He's good for football...and fantasy. He's scored 27+ points in three of his last five games. The challenge with all that positivity is one of those 27-point anomalies was against the #Steelers, where he scored 15 points. The #Steelers have kept QBs quiet most of the season, allowing 22 points in Week 5 (Dak) and 25 points last week (Burrow). QBs have scored 15 points or fewer outside of that production. He's priced comfortably enough to minimize the risk of those negative concerns, as we know he can thrash his 21-point mark. #Browns
$5400 Jameis Winston pts needed: 21.6
-300
$5700 38.98 pts wk13(DEN)
0
$5700 15.46 pts wk12(PIT)
+200
$5500 29.60 pts wk11(NO)
+100
$5400 13.10 pts wk9(LAC)
+200
$5200 27.56 pts wk8(BAL)
SEASON
snp%:
52.54
util%:
60.98
ppg:
13.42
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
97.6
util%:
63.87
ppg:
28.01
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
2.64 vs KC -25.37 -10.78
HISTORY vs PIT
2024
17.28 points in Week14
15.46 points in Week12

OPPONENTS vs. PIT

SEASON AVG vs PIT Rank
14.34 ppg 3rd
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs PIT Rank
18.87 ppg 14th
DIFF
+4.53
WK PLAYERS vs. PIT POINTS
13 Joe Burrow 25.26
12 Jameis Winston 15.46
11 Lamar Jackson 15.88
10 Jayden Daniels 8.58
8 Daniel Jones 8.66
7 Aaron Rodgers 15.04
6 Aidan OConnell 12.08
5 Dak Prescott 22.38
4 Joe Flacco 15.02
4 Anthony Richardson 5.24
3 Justin Herbert 9.00
3 Taylor Heinicke 0.96
2 Bo Nix 10.34
1 Kirk Cousins 8.20
Las Vegas Raiders vs TB:

Aidan OConnell - $4800

Aidan O'Connell found 23 points against the #Chiefs last week, allowing for a shot at his low price and against the #Buccaneers, who have allowed 17+ points all season except against Spencer Rattler (14) and Tommy DeVito (10). The bad thing about that stat is that O'Connell parallels those quarterbacks and offenses. His mark is 19 points, and his salary won't destroy your lineup, but ensure that you build it with him as the only risk factor. If you can't find that, I'd go elsewhere. I love the shot in a multi-entry slate. #Raiders
$4800 Aidan OConnell pts needed: 19.2
0
$4800 23.60 pts wk13(KC)
0
$4800 2.08 pts wk7(LAR)
-100
$4900 12.08 pts wk6(PIT)
-200
$5100 2.76 pts wk5(DEN)
+300
$4800 7.28 pts wk3(CAR)
SEASON
snp%:
55.02
util%:
71.4
ppg:
9.56
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
72.57
util%:
62.6
ppg:
12.59
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
17.58 vs NO +4.99 +8.02
HISTORY vs TB
2024
8.76 points in Week14

OPPONENTS vs. TB

SEASON AVG vs TB Rank
23.44 ppg 31st
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs TB Rank
20.44 ppg 23rd
DIFF
-3
WK PLAYERS vs. TB POINTS
13 Bryce Young 23.62
12 Tommy Devito 10.76
12 Drew Lock 0.12
10 Brock Purdy 26.82
9 Patrick Mahomes 24.54
8 Kirk Cousins 28.64
7 Lamar Jackson 35.44
6 Spencer Rattler 14.42
5 Kirk Cousins 38.36
4 Jalen Hurts 17.32
3 Bo Nix 19.34
2 Jared Goff 13.78
1 Jayden Daniels 28.16
Jacksonville Jaguars vs TEN:

Mac Jones - $5000

While the #Jaguars ran the ball almost every play once Mac Jones stepped in for Trevor Lawrence, eventually, the passing game started rolling, and Jones looked comfortable. He scored 20 points against the #Texans and faces the #Titans, who have allowed 15+ points since Week 7. A high ceiling is less probable, but with a mark of 20 points, you're not chasing that. While it's welcome, 15 points seem probable, which won't bust your lineup. #Jaguars
$5000 Mac Jones pts needed: 20
+100
$4900 20.00 pts wk13(HOU)
0
$4900 5.22 pts wk11(DET)
+500
$4400 8.24 pts wk10(MIN)
-700
$5100 0.24 pts wk6(CHI)
+200
$4900 -0.12 pts wk3(BUF)
SEASON
snp%:
59.48
util%:
57
ppg:
6.72
LAST 3 GAMES
snp%:
90.97
util%:
64.87
ppg:
11.15
LAST GAME
Points vs L3 vs S
17.16 vs TEN +6.01 +10.44
HISTORY vs TEN
2024
17.16 points in Week17
7.10 points in Week14
2021
24.50 points in Week12

OPPONENTS vs. TEN

SEASON AVG vs TEN Rank
18.71 ppg 24th
LAST 3 GAMES AVG vs TEN Rank
23.65 ppg 30th
DIFF
+4.94
WK PLAYERS vs. TEN POINTS
13 Jayden Daniels 28.64
12 C.J. Stroud 17.68
11 Sam Darnold 24.64
10 Justin Herbert 19.76
9 Drake Maye 18.74
8 Jared Goff 15.50
8 Hendon Hooker 0.24
7 Josh Allen 24.02
6 Joe Flacco 14.66
4 Tyler Huntley 12.84
3 Malik Willis 25.38
2 Aaron Rodgers 15.14
1 Caleb Williams 7.22