DraftKings Main Slate for Week 12 - Wide Receiver (WR)

The #Bears allowed 30 points to Nico Collins in Week 2 and 12 points or fewer in the weeks around that up to Week 5. Since then, they've allowed 21+ points, except to the #Patriots' WRs in Week 10. While the high has only been 22 points in that timeframe, Justin Jefferson does have some history against the #Bears, splitting with 25+ points in two games in the last two seasons, including 33 points last season and 14 points or fewer in the other two games. He's a little pricey, but his price is down, and he's due. #Vikings

While he scored only 2 points last week, Terry McLaurin has found 15+ points in the previous four weeks. He's always in play and at a fair price against the #Cowboys. While I welcome McLaurin, the data supports a splash opportunity for Noah Brown, who has solidly snapped 72% over the last three weeks. He's seeing a good amount of targets, with four targets as his low from last week, but he has received 6+ in the previous three games. #Commanders

The slot was mentioned after Cedrick Wilson and Jalen Coker scored 17 points against the #Broncos in Week 7 and 8. That landed with Zay Flowers scoring 32 points in Week 9, Travis Kelce scoring 20 points in Week 10, and the promoted Ray-Ray McCloud leading the #Falcons' WRs with 10 points last week. While Brock Bowers likely lands as the benefactor, the dart to surprise could arrive with the 3.8k price tag of DJ Turner. The other appealing play is whoever lines up opposite Patrick Surtain and faces Riley Moss. When Davante Adams was there, it was much safer to assume Jakobi Meyers, who scored 21 and 29 points last season against the #Broncos. I don't anticipate any shadow coverage on Meyers, which keeps him in consideration, with Tre Tucker as a risky dart. #Raiders

The #Lions have dominated in the last three weeks, limiting WRs to -11.43 below their 29th rank against WRs. While there is concern, they've allowed 16+ points to WRs every week except last week to the #Jaguars. Josh Downs has found a consistent floor of 12+ points over the previous four weeks, including 25 points in Week 8 and 19 points last week. His targets and usage have been solid, which arrives well for his 24-point mark. Michael Pittman has been quiet with 9 points or fewer in the last four weeks but seems to be returning healthy so that he could surprise. The data points to a shot for Alec Pierce to show up, which doesn't present as boom-or-bust as we're used to since he's delivered a 7+ point floor in the last three weeks, including 18 and 10 points in the last two weeks. #Colts

Calvin Ridley has 9+ points in the last four weeks, including 25 and 26 points in two games. The #Texans have allowed 17+ points to WRs since Week 6. Ridley should continue his solid production toward his 22-point mark. While I'd love to share that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's production is fluky, he keeps finding a way into the stat line. He's produced 6+ points in the last five weeks, including 16 and 22 points in two of his last three games. He's a dart, but not as risky as in the past, especially with the matchup and mark of 16 points. #Titans

The #Chiefs allowed 16+ points to WRs in three of the last four weeks, which aligns well with the prices of Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen (assuming he goes). Their marks of 18 and 20 points allow some salary relief to strong builds in a game the #Panthers should have to pass. #Panthers

I joke with my friend and call the Broncos' WRs "Courtland Sutton and the 45 percenters." Basically, there is Courtland Sutton, who you should continue to use with his floor of 14 points during the previous four games, and every other WRs that all snap 45% or lower each week. It's been that way since Josh Reynold was injured in Week 5, who should return this week. He scored 9, 13, 5, 0, and 7 points before that injury. While it's hard to assume his exact role upon his return, his price is only 3k, which doesn't require much. If I knew he would retain his precise role, this price would be a solid piece to build around, but the uncertainty, especially with other players playing well, limits that pursuit. What is also interesting is the usage of Marvin Mims, who has played RB and WR, getting at least three carries in the last two games. That and his receiving opportunities have translated to 7 and 13 points, which is appealing with a 12-point mark. #Broncos

By the numbers, the #Bears' WRs land the best matchup against the #Vikings. While they are 31st against WRs across the season, the #Bears are the 3rd best in the last three weeks, decreasing production by -16.37 ppg compared to their season average. Part of that is due to playing the injured #Jaguars and the up-and-down output of the #Colts offense. The #Bears land similarly to the #Colts, which doesn't lean one way or the other. Previous to these last three weeks, the #Vikings allowed 19+ points since Week 2 and allowed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to splash for 22 points last week. The #Bears presented better the previous week, and their WRs have significant discounts at 5.5k, 4.9k, and 4.8k. If I had to chase one, I would stick with DJ Moore. #Bears

We saw a glimmer of Tyreek Hill last week, finally hitting 19 points against the #Raiders. Now, he faces the #Patriots, who just allowed Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to smash for 31 and 28 points last week. Previous to that, things were quiet but to lesser offenses. Both are due for the #Dolphins' WRs. #Dolphins

Mike Evans should return this week, as he practiced in full (FP) on Thursday and followed that up with a limit practice (LP) on Friday, which usually points to a test and rest. Be sure to check the injury report, but if he's a go, he'll fall back in line with high targets from Baker Mayfield, who is glaringly missing his wideouts. While it goes back from 2018-2021, Evans has three 20+ point games against the #Giants, including 33 and 48 points. While we expected more from the WRs, this could help the pecking order and allow for a sneaky dart of Sterling Shepard, who should fill Godwin's role with more attention toward Evans. #Buccaneers

While Marvin Harrison went quiet for a little, he's scored 16+ points in two of the last three weeks, including 26 points three weeks ago. The data strongly supports his production toward his 24-point mark against the #Seahawks, who allowed 18+ points since Week 4, including 22+ points in the last three weeks. It's go time...or Michael Wilson will surprise. #Cardinals

The #Packers' WRs all have moments, but the data supports Jayden Reed against the #49ers, who allowed splashes or upticks to primary slot WRs. It's not limited to his output, and his recent production of 14 points or fewer don't help the cause, but it's likely his turn...or Tucker Kraft. I like the shot. #Packers

Malik Nabers landed a plus matchup against the #Buccaneers, who allowed 15+ points since Week 5. Unfortunately, he landed on the injury report Friday and a DNP. If he goes, it should create a low roster percentage, landing him sneaky...and risky (if we weren't already there). While I don't love it, if he doesn't go, it puts Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson in the mix. I prefer the better-priced Slayton as a solid dart if Nabers doesn't go. #Giants