DraftKings Main Slate for Week 11 - Running Back (RB)

Audric Estime's recent usage and price will make him a favorite this week. The last time this happened with the #Broncos was on the Tyler Baddie hype train. While he was injured in that game, Javonte Williams took the backfield back, scoring 10 points that week and 16 points the week after. This isn't a deterrent. It is just a moment to pause, as Estime has earned more time, but keep in mind he scored 5 points last week. Jaleel McLaughlin is also still in the mix. While I may utilize him, I want you to assess it correctly. If everything goes right, Audric Estime lands as a 50-60% RB at a phenomenal price and in a solid matchup. That is the perfect storm toward his 18-point mark against the #Falcons, who have allowed 15+ points to RBs since Week 6. I like the shot, but build your lineup with him as a risk and not as a free square, and it will help you assess your build accurately. Javonte Williams lands an extreme contrarian play. #Broncos

By the numbers, Kareem Hunt lands the best matchup against the #Bills, who haven't allowed consistency to the position. Similarly to the Jonathan Taylor pursuit last week, the production comes in bulk, with 24+ point splashes across the season, including 29, 32, and 38 points to Achane and Henry. Taylor fell short with 17 points, which seemed like a higher output would've been achieved with how the game flowed. While Taylor presented some challenges, Hunt's production is solid, scoring 17+ points in four last five weeks. His price of 6.7k is easier to build around toward his 26-point mark. His floor should continue, but you'll need the endzone once or twice to land the mark. #Chiefs

AK let down last week with 15 points, but he's still a volume play against the #Browns. Before their bye, they allowed 24 points to JK Dobbins but limited all RBs to 14 or fewer points going back to Week 4. He's hard to chase with those numbers, but the opportunities will be there. #Saints

A trend of 17+ points in the last two weeks is developing against the #Broncos. Bijan Robinson is on fire, scoring 21+ points in the previous five weeks, including 32 last week. It's a climb to his 31-point mark, but likely worth it if you can fit him. #Falcons

With Tank Bigsby out, Travis Etienne is back in the mix against the #Lions. Detroit has allowed some splashes throughout the season: 33 points to Kenneth Walker in Week 4, 20 points to Aaron Jones in Week 7, and 17 points to Joe Mixon last week. Outside of that, all RBs have scored 14 points or fewer. The positive is that Etienne is healthy, and when a singular back, we would've died for these prices. He's priced for high ownership, so move accordingly with his 25-point mark. D'Ernest Johnson was limited, which appeals more for Etienne if he doesn't go, but also lands as a bare-minimum-priced dart. #Jaguars

If you've been following, the #Jaguars are the go-to for RBs, who allowed 15+ points since Week 3, except for last week to Aaron Jones, who finished with 12 points. Jones also was injured, missing about 10-15% of his regular usage and falling 12 yards short of a 100-yard game. There is no doubt the #Lions RBs find production this week. The challenge is which player lands it. A double stack is not outside of the realm. I'd use both in a cash game to guarantee the floor, but cash isn't where I play. The way I will approach this is to use their prices to make my decisions. Whichever lineup builds best, which should likely land with Montgomery due to his lower price, is likely where I land. I wish there were a differentiator between the two. Even though Gibbs outsnapped Montgomery last week at 60% to 40%, their snaps in the previous three weeks were almost identical, with Montgomery landing 48% and Gibbs at 46%. I'll dig around here and tweet if I find something that appeals to my decision. #Lions

While the #Rams defense is playing well overall and hasn't allowed above 13 points to RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson is back in the volume play conversation. He scored 8 points last week but 22 and 23 points in the two weeks before. He's snapped 74% in the previous three weeks, increasing 11% on his season average. With only a 24-point mark, he's a solid play where he should get enough volume on the ground or in the air. #Patriots

Raheem Mostert didn't have a carry last week. While I don't expect that to continue, Achane has increased in snaps (+6.81%), utilization (+3.08), and ppg (+6.4) in the previous three weeks. His 28-point mark is a tough reach, but the #Raiders allowed a 15-point floor every game this year except one (Kareem Hunt (13)), including 25 points to Dobbins in Week 1, 30 points to Chuba Hubbard in Week 3, 23 points to Najee Harris in Week 6, and 29 points to Chase Brown last week. A 15-point floor presents safe, but you'll need some splashes and a bonus. #Dolphins

The #Vikings are solid against the run, allowing 11 points or fewer in all but three games this season. This doesn't promote well for the running game, but Tony Pollard is listed here to see the dent that Tyjae Spears provided, snapping 47% with his return. At a low price of 4.7k, he's a decent salary relief option if you want to pivot away from the popularity of Audric Estime. His mark of 18 will likely need the endzone or a lot of checkdowns. Fair dart. #Titans

It's do-or-die time for Nick Chubb fantasy managers against the #Saints, who allowed 16+ points in the last six weeks, including 37 points to Sean Tucker in Week 6, 26 points to Javonte Williams in Week 7, and 32 points to Bijan Robinson last week. Chubb hasn't scored more than 10 points in the previous three weeks. His 24-point mark should be reachable, but as much as I'm rooting for this, it comes with a high risk. #Browns

Jonathan Taylor has yet to have much of a ceiling for his high price tag, but he's scored a floor of 17 points in two of his last three games since returning from injury. Over that time, he's snapped 78%, including 82% last week. While it's shy of his 30-point mark, the #Jets allowed 18+ points to RBs since Week 6, including 23 points to Rhamondre Stevenson and 22 points to James Conner. The game should script well for him and expect the #Colts to lean on Taylor to get Richardson going. #Colts

The Steelers are tough against the pass but vulnerable to the run, allowing 17+ points to RBs since Week 4. In a road game against their division rival, the Ravens need to open this up with Derrick Henry. Strategy aside, the price tag is a formidable reach at 32 points, but Pittsburgh allowed 29 points to Breece Hall and 26 points to Tyrone Tracy. Henry's last five games primarily promote why he's in consideration, as he's scored 14 points twice and 28+ points three times in the previous five weeks. While it can land many ways with the #Ravens, this history of these teams tends to promote a high usage for Henry. #Ravens

While Kyren Williams disappointed the trend with 10 points against the #Seahawks last week, Bijan Robinson and James Cook scored 26 points and 31 points in the previous two weeks. CMC returned with 87% last week and 16 points. His snaps are not a concern, and outside of their last game, CMC has produced 28+ points against Seattle since 2018. With a stout mark of 33 points, he'll be hard to build around, but get him if you can fit him (One small side note is that Deebo has a similar ceiling history). #49ers

The #49ers allowed 19+ points in three of the last four weeks to RBs. Kenneth Walker has had two duds in the previous two weeks and two 20+ points in the two weeks before. He's priced a little much with a 28-point mark, but he snapped 76% last week and scored 20 points in their previous matchup in Week 6 this season. Fair play, but I don't love the volatility at this price. #Seahawks