DraftKings Main Slate for Week 11 - Quarterback (QB)

Bo Nix is getting priced-out of the comforting 14+ point floor he's provided over the last five weeks. He's not out of consideration, as the #Falcons have allowed 16+ points to QBs (one combination of Dak/Rush of 12 & 11) since Week 5. While the production has been there, a ceiling of 27 points arrived once, with Baker Mayfield and all other QBs scoring below that mark of 23 points or fewer. He's a decent play where 16+ points are expected, but you'll need some help the rest of the way. #Broncos

By the numbers, Russ has the best matchup against the #Ravens, who have allowed 18+ points over the last six weeks, including 32 points to Mayfield and 36 and 37 points to Burrow. Since taking over as the starter, Wilson has scored 19, 14, and 24 points. His mark of 23 points is very probable. #Steelers

Like Josh Allen's write-up, the #Bills keep QBs quiet, scoring 18 points or fewer since Week 6. Patrick Mahomes isn't lighting up the world, but his floor of 16 points in the last three games has the opportunity to improve in a matchup that should require more. While Allen's production against the #Chiefs arrived with promotion, Mahomes's numbers against the #Bills are 24 points or fewer since 2020, including 14 points last season. His 27-point mark is a reach, but if you want a piece of this game and can't pay up toward Allen, here is your pivot. #Chiefs

Oddly, Derek Carr arrived with 20 points last week after delivering 13 points or fewer in the four previous weeks. This is not something to chase, but the #Browns are a decent play against the passing game, allowing 19+ points in four of the last five weeks. He's worth another dart. #Saints

Aaron Rodgers was trending positively with production, scoring 15+ to start his last five weeks of production, hitting 20 points two weeks ago, and then dudding with 5 points last week. The #Colts are friendly to QBs, allowing 20 and 22 in the previous two weeks, but have limited sluggish offenses to 13 points or fewer three weeks before that two-week trend. The #Jets have the weapons to continue the positive trends but keep falling short. While there shouldn't be risk toward ARod's 22-point mark, it is there. I like the sneaky play. #Jets

The data suggests Josh Allen is way off his 31-point mark against the #Chiefs, who allowed 20 points or fewer since Week 2. The anomaly was Lamar Jackson, who scored 29 points in Week 1. Allen can easily be in that same conversation, highlighted by his 21+ point production against the #Chiefs over the last three years, which includes 30 and 39 points. He's scored 20-24 points in the previous five weeks, so we'll need more, but this game is likely seeking it. #Bills

The #Patriots quieted their trend of a 15-point floor in their four previous games, with Caleb Williams landing 6 points. I credit that more to the #Bears than the #Patriots. While the numbers don't promote an explosive performance for Stafford, his mark of 23 points is reachable in a get-right game. Maye has kept things competitive enough for Stafford to find that mark. Solid play. #Rams

I'm almost rooting for the data to support #Jameis returning to New Orleans, where he's had splashes against the #Saints, but there isn't much to promote outside of that and the "Jameis" factor. The #Saints allowed 14 points and fewer in three of the last four weeks. The upbeat "sell" of those outputs is Bryce Young and Bo Nix landing two of those outputs, with Kirky as a concern of only 14 points, but that landed more in Bijan Robinson's production than the passing game. Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield offer some appeal, landing 24 and 31 points in two of the last five weeks. He's a dart toward his 22-point mark, but when isn't he? While unlikely, it would only make sense that Kadarius Toney and Jameis Winston are in the winning lineup this week. #Browns

Just as Kyler Murray was promoted and hit against the #Jets, Richardson, while concerning, fits the narrative of the #Jets allowing production to Russel Wilson and Josh Allen. Most people are off this train, which is a perfect time to pounce, with a lowly price of 5.3k and a 21-point mark. He'll be hard to play as a single entry, but I would 100% build a lineup around him in a multi-entry. #Colts

The matchup against the #Seahawks is less supportive than Brock Purdy's numbers alone, as he's scored 20+ in the last four weeks, while the #Seahawks have allowed 20 points or fewer in the last three weeks. Previous to that three-week trend, Seattle allowed 22+ points in their last three-week trend, which included 24 points from Purdy. Last season, he scored 25 & 11 points against the #Seahawks. He's been playing too well to ignore his 26-point mark. I'd like the price a little less, so he's not a layup to build around. #49ers