DFS’ers, welcome to Week 4! It’s time to conquer and break down the Millionaire Maker slate on DraftKings. I changed the breakdown from last week to have more tiers since pricing is essential. Evaluating an $8100 QB vs. a QB priced at $7100 doesn’t feel balanced. It’s always easier to save the salary in most cases. My goal this week was to group players with closer price ranges, which created more tiers. I’ll likely get more creative in the future, but I utilized second and third sub-tiers when needed. I hope it helps for those closer decisions. While I edit my content, please understand I’m a one-man band and I may miss a few errors. Hopefully, nothing that is too distracting from the content! 🙂
While there is a lot of information here, you should constantly gain knowledge from now until Sunday morning. I monitor this link for practice results, and you should do the same:
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Lamar Jackson ($7500) – Likely receiving rest due to back issues, but keep an eye on it. The Ravens list Tyler Huntley ($4300) as the backup If he doesn’t go.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5500) – Likely rest and maintenance. If Ben didn’t start, Mason Rudolph ($4600) would likely get the start.
Carson Wentz ($5400) – He went last week, so I’d anticipate he’ll start again this week. Jacob Eason ($4000) is the backup.
Andy Dalton ($5300) – He will get the start if he plays. Justin Fields ($5200) is $100 less, so if you like the matchup and plan to use either, I’d build my lineups with Dalton and leave the $100 on the table if Fields goes.
Tyrod Taylor ($5300) – Taylor is on IR. Davis Mills ($4900) will start again this week.
The High Tier (QB)
Josh Allen ($8000) – We all know this is a smash spot vs. the Texans. The question is will they keep up to keep Allen passing. With Davis Mills as the Quarterback, I’d lean against it. It’s a hefty price for what may provide a game that is over in the 3rd quarter. I’ll consider him because he’s that good, but I’m leaning more toward fading him rather than playing him.
Kyler Murray ($7800) – Kyler’s averaged 14.13 points vs. the Rams in 4 matchups. His top score is 20 points. The Rams are legit, and Hopkins isn’t healthy. He can overcome all of this, but it’s pretty pricey to have this much discomfort. He’s more on the fade side rather than the play side for me because of the price.
Patrick Mahomes ($8100) – Mahomes is always in consideration, so I won’t waste your time glorifying his greatness. The matchup doesn’t present beneficial as the Eagles are not that good. The thing that makes him in play beyond his greatness is that the Chiefs need to get right. They are 1-2 and in last place of the AFC West. The pedal should be on the floor the whole game to leave no room for seeing 1-3. Hurts might be productive enough to keep it going.
Lamar Jackson ($7500) – The numbers tell you he’s playing the top-ranked D vs. QBs, but if you dive deeper, the Broncos’ opponents were the Jets, Jaguars, and Giants. This should be a good game and an important one to both teams as it may present playoff implications. Expect Lamar to be Lamar. My only genuine concern is that he has a back injury. Back injuries are tricky, so monitor the injury report.
The Mid-High Tier (QB)
Aaron Rodgers ($6800) – Rodgers can overcome this defense, but there isn’t a lot of comfort or data to sell you why. Carr produced 27.18 in Week 2, but if I’m taking a shot, I want a significant discount for it. There are too many better options around this price tag.
Matthew Stafford ($7000) – Stafford is coming off a massive game vs. the Buccaneers. His production should continue, but his price increased by $600 from last week. The price is fair for his 26.03 points/game, but I don’t think we’ll receive the shootout we’d like from this game due to the Rams’ defense. It feels like he’ll hit a nice floor, but I don’t anticipate chasing the less hopeful ceiling we need at this price.
Dak Prescott ($6700) – Prescott is playing the number defense vs. QBs. While that should scare us, it isn’t a number that tells the whole story. The Panthers are a better defense than last year and previous years. This is a fact. What is also a fact is that the Panthers played Davis Mills (10.72 points), Jameis Winston (10.34 points), and Zach Wilson (19.32). This isn’t exactly a challenging slate of opponents, hence why they are ranked number one vs. QBs. Zach Wilson delivered 4.60 & 6.30 points in the two games after that matchup. If Zach Wilson delivered 19.32, Dak should have a field day with how this offense is producing. Buy!
Jalen Hurts ($6900) – Hurts keep producing, and the Chiefs continue to allow the production. It sounds like the combination we are after. Herbert and Jackson eclipsed 30+ points vs. the Chiefs, and Hurts lowest output is 21.80 while averaging 25.37 on the season. He’ll likely have high ownership, so while I’d love to provide the many reasons to play him, you already know.
Russell Wilson ($7100) – Russ has a lengthy history vs. the in-division 49ers. His earlier years are less as good as his recent years. That is more likely to the 49ers having a better defense. They still have a solid front seven, which will likely put the ball in Wilson’s hands. His ceiling isn’t as exciting as we’d like for this price based on his history:
The 49ers allowed 32.92 from Goff, 21.80 from Hurts, and 19.04 from Rodgers. Each of those games took different paths, but the 24.95 average of those scores feels like a safe floor for Russ.
The Mid-Mid Tier (QB)
Ryan Tannehill ($6300) – This should be a get-right game, but it doesn’t feel that way. Julio Jones and AJ Brown are both not practicing. I’d like to find a reason to play him besides the fact that his opponent is the Jets, but that’s the only reason I can find at this time.
Kirk Cousins ($6400) – Cousins might be the safest CPP of the season thus far. He’s delivered games of 28.12, 25.26, & 25.04, and his salary hasn’t been above $6300 or below $6200, at least until this week. The price is still friendly, but the defense of the Browns is better than his previous three opponents. A floor of 18 feels safe, but I don’t anticipate this game as a shootout which should limit his ceiling. I like the price for him, but I don’t love it.
Sam Darnold ($6000) – If you recall the last tier’s rankings, his opponent was at the top of that list. This game spells shootout. Both defenses primarily thrived verse lesser opponents. This game should be high-scoring, as the Cowboys allowed 25.54 points from Hurts last week, 19.72 to Herbert in the week prior, and 32.16 to Brady to open the season. I won’t disagree that the Herbert let-down in this equation is concerning. I’d love to have a counter to it, but this is one of those situations where I’d rather be wrong and play it versus being right and missing it.
Baker Mayfield ($6200) – I like Baker’s salary and matchup. Also, I like that if he goes off that we aren’t guessing where those targets land. He’s worth playing at his price, but it’s more due to that and the matchup, as I anticipate a better game from Chubb. With that, Mayfield’s points needed to pay for his salary are 24.8. I feel confident he can’t get close or meet that.
The Mid-Low Tier (QB)
Daniel Jones ($5800) – The matchup isn’t favorable. The Saints limited Aaron Rodgers to 3.32 points in Week 1. After that, they allowed Darnold with 22.90 points and Mac Jones with 14.60 points. This is extremely difficult to assess as the performances of the less talented Quarterbacks should provide comfortability. Still, if I’m betting on this equation, it is on the Saints’ defense versus the shaky play of Daniel Jones.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5600) – Garoppollo has a middle-of-the-pack matchup vs. the Seahawks. Last week, they allowed 28.12 points to Cousins but limited Tannehill to 18.58 points and 19.34 points to Wentz. Jimmy G hasn’t eclipsed 20 points this season. He’s averaged 8.18 points vs. the Seahawks in his last four games and never surpassed 13.02 points in any of those matchups. Pass.
Teddy Bridgewater ($5700) – Teddy’s price dropped by 100 due to his last matchup with the Jets and the better matchup vs. the Ravens. It feels like a place to stay away from, but injuries made their way to both stout defenses. Goff dudded last week for 9.08 points, but the Lions were competitive, which replicated the games the Raiders and Chiefs vs. the Ravens. It’s not the same old Ravens defense. They allowed Carr & Mahomes 28 points. Teddy should find some production in this game with his points needed at a minimal 22.80 for the price.
Taylor Heinicke ($5900) – Daniel Jones failed at a $100 discount in this space, so this is challenging. Opponents vs. the Falcons are supposed to be free squares, and now that isn’t the case. My take is that Saquon Barkley delivered, and Jones didn’t. Heinicke dudded in the opener with 10.58 points. He played 70% in that game after Fitzpatrick was injured. It was also versus the Chargers who limited the ceiling of Mahomes last week. In his other two matchups, 24.04 vs. the Giants and Week 2 and 23.38 points vs. a tough passing defense in the Bills. Due to Jones’ misstep last week, I think that will limit ownership which could provide an excellent opportunity to take down a tournament with an easy pairing of McLauren next to him. Additionally, Curtis Samuel may return this week which would give Heinicke another weapon.
Jameis Winston ($5600) – I like the upside of Winston vs. the Giants. Matt Ryan only delivered 16.62 vs. them last week, but Heinicke and Bridgewater landed with 24.04 & 20.46 points. There should be enough opportunity to hit the minimal 22.40 floor for the price. He dudded in Weeks 2 & 3 with 10.34 & 13.52 but did find his way in Week 1 with 29.62 points. Winston always comes with many risks, but Brees played better at home, so I like the potential reward of Jameis doing the same.
The Low Tier (QB)
Carson Wentz ($5400) – A healthy Wentz is concerning, as the injured Wentz delivered a measly 7.76 points vs. a bad Titans defense. The Dolphins seem to inspire shootouts, which helped Carr reach 25.24 points verse them last week. I would temper that expectation as even Josh Allen only reached 17.66 vs. the Dolphins in Week 2. I don’t see a healthy Wentz obtaining that.
Jared Goff ($5200) – The price is lovely for a starting Quarterback, so I won’t fault you for taking a shot. Mayfield delivered 16.94 points last week and was limited to that performance due to Cleveland’s defense thrashing Justin Fields. Joe Burrow only reached 13.28 points in Week 2, while Matthew Stafford delivered 27.34 points. Stafford is a different monster than Goff, and their trade should’ve confirmed that if you didn’t know already.
Jacoby Brissett ($5100) – Revenge game! That aside, the Colts defense has delivered for Quarterbacks in 2 of 3 of their matchups. Stafford only reached 18.22 as the odd man out to Ryan Tannehill & Russell Winston higher marks of 23.48 & 27.06. The price is right for Brissett, who delivered 20.30 verse the Raiders last week. There are two sides of the coin with this matchup. Brissett knows the Colts’ defense, but so do the Colts know Brissett. I’m leaning toward playing him vs. fading him.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5500) – If you follow me, you know I think Big Ben’s time is over. With that, there is still an opportunity for some big games. Jimmy G only delivered 16.68 points last week, but Goff hit 20.44 & Jameis Winston hit 29.62 in the previous weeks. These aren’t prime Quarterbacks, but they’ve managed to succeed, which can be the case for Roethlisberger. He has the weapons, and while I lean toward Najee Harris having the better game, the price for Ben is low enough to build a solid lineup around him.
Matt Ryan ($5400) – Due to Josh Allen’s 40.22 thrashing vs. the Washington Football, Matt Ryan walks into the best matchup…on paper. I’m still a believer in the Washington Football Team as a top defense, though the numbers aren’t telling that tale. Daniel Jones landed 29.46 points in Week 2, but amazingly Justin Herbert disappointed by those standards with 18.38 points in Week 1. This game feels more like a get-right game for the Football Team defense than the Falcons offense. His price with a low-budgeted pairing with Ridley will keep him in consideration, but I’m leaning fad for the poor Washington Defense vs. trend.
Andy Dalton ($5300) & Justin Fields ($5200) – As of writing this, Andy Dalton was a limited participant in Wednesday & Thursday’s practice. No matter who plays, the matchup is worth the price of both of them. Lamar disappointed with his price but landed 20.28 points last week. Aaron Rodgers reached 26.80 points in Week 2, and Jimmy G hit for 18.76 in Week 1. The reason this isn’t an obvious in-play is because of two variables. One: Matt Nagy. Two: if Dalton goes, what if he doesn’t finish. Significant factors to consider before building that Bears stack.
Davis Mills ($4900) – I lean more toward fading Mills vs. playing him, but the price is too reasonable not to build a fantastic lineup. I won’t fault you for taking the shot, but nothing about this matchup spells success for Mills. The only argument I can find is that Taylor Heinicke hit for 23.38 last week. The Bills were tough vs. the pass last season and usually susceptible to giving up yards on the ground. So far this season, they’ve limited all aspects and are shining as a top defense in the league. Outside of Antonio Gibson’s 73 yard TD reception, there hasn’t been much to go around vs. the Bills.
Zach Wilson ($5000) – The Titans were the team to target vs. Quarterbacks, but last week they handed Wentz 7.76 points, dropping them to the 20th worst vs. QBs. While one game will never have me fading a potential trend, I am concerned about pulling this trigger. Wilson hit 19.32 in Week 1, but since then has disastrous performances of 6.30 & 4.60. The opportunity to bounce back is too high with such a friendly price to build an amazing lineup around. The stacks below provide you an abundant remaining budget, which is well worth the risk to me:
Dalvin Cook ($8100) – Practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday & Thursday. It looks like he’s trending toward playing, but Friday’s practice will tell a lot. If not, Alexander Mattison ($6600) gets the start.
Saquon Barkley ($6700) – Practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday & Thursday. It is likely a goal to rest Barkley since he snapped a season-high of 85.7% last week. Devontae Booker ($4300) would probably get the start if Barkley had a setback.
Aaron Jones ($7700) & AJ Dillon ($4300) – Both are on the injury report. Jones practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday & Thursday, while Dillon was a limited participant on Thursday. If by surprise both didn’t go, Kylin Hill ($4000) is listed 3rd on the depth chart.
Antonio Gibson ($6100) – was added as a DNP on Thursday, which is cause for concern. It seems odd to hand out a rest day on Thursday, so this is worth watching. JD McKissic ($5000) would receive a significant upgrade, and it would seem that Jarret Patterson ($4000) would be involved.
Melvin Gordon ($5500) – Limited on Wednesday & Thursday, but likely a non-issue. Javonte Williams ($5000) would get the start.
Christian McCaffrey ($8700) – CMC is out. Chuba Hubbard ($5900) receives the start, and I’d assume some role for Royce Freeman ($4700).
Elijah Mitchell ($5400) – Mitchell returned to practice with limited practices on Wednesday & Thursday. If he doesn’t play, Trey Sermon ($5000) should start and expect a mixture of Kyle Juszczyk ($4000). If he does play, who knows, but if active, I would anticipate Mitchell splitting snaps at a minimum.
D’Andre Swift ($6200) – Swift was limited on Wednesday & Thursday. It presents as rest, but if not, Jamaal Williams ($5300) would get the start.
Jonathan Taylor ($6300) – was limited on Wednesday & Thursday. Likely nothing of concern, but if Taylor didn’t go, expect the Colts to utilize Marlon Mack ($4300) while Nyheim Hines ($4900) would get an uptick in work.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5600) – was limited on Wednesday & Thursday. Watch the injury report for Henderson’s status. If he doesn’t go, Sony Michel ($5200) will get the start.
The High Tier (RB)
Christian McCaffrey ($8700) – Amazingly, players build lineups with injured players all the time, so he is listed here to advise you that he is out and is not playing.
Dalvin Cook ($8100) – He’s working his way back from an ankle injury. The Vikings held him out last game, so if he goes, I anticipate his usual workload, and the risk of reinjury to a healed ankle is not a high reinjury concern. The problem outside of the injury is the matchup. The Browns were solid vs. the run last year, and while the matchups vs. them aren’t a good measuring stick, they haven’t let up more than 10.20 points to a Running Back this season. Cooks can deliver in the passing game, but Kamara & Henry are hard to fade over Cook if I’m paying up. His ownership will likely be extremely low for his norm, so he is a nice pivot.
Alvin Kamara ($8400) – Kamara’s averaging an 80% snap count on the season. The matchup spells a big game, as the Giants’ two previous matchups created splashes by Cordarrelle Patterson with 16.20 points and JD McKissic with 20.30 points. Those two players are downgraded adaptations of Kamara, and if they can deliver that, I’d anticipate that Sean Payton knows precisely where the ball is going this week.
Derrick Henry ($8800) – He’s playing the 30th ranked defense vs. RBs. Julio Jones & AJ Brown both haven’t practiced to this point. I don’t know a better opportunity for him to have 30+ carries, but it is likely. I’d assume extremely high ownership, so the one thing that can significantly benefit you is playing one lineup without him. If you plan to fade, build one lineup with him. It’s called hedging, and you should utilize it to protect yourself.
The Mid-High Tier (RB)
Aaron Jones ($7700) – The Steelers are not the matchup you want for RBs. The highest points against them this season is 11.00 points from Devin Singletary in Week 1. In the past, Jones consistently overcomes and surprises as the low ownership play that you want in a tournament, but that is usually at a more affordable price. Don’t let me deter you if you think Jones will hit the 30.80 points needed to rationalize that budget, but I don’t see a path to utilize him based on the red sea below:
Saquon Barkley ($6700) – I don’t play Running Backs, not named CMC vs. the Saints. In addition to below, CMC’s 24.70 point performance in Week 2 of this season has now made it 5:
Ezekiel Elliott ($6500) – Zeke finally has momentum since dudding with 5.90 points in Week 1. To be fair, that was against the stout-run defense of the Buccaneers. He climbed to 17.70 in Week 2 while only seeing a small climb of his salary of $200. He continued his ascent to 26.60 on Monday night, but his salary still hasn’t caught up with only another $100 increase. Tony Pollard is a deserving thorn, but he’s only cutting away 32% while Zeke is at 75%. The Panthers are ranked number 1 vs. the run, and while I respect them limiting Kamara in Week 2 to 7 points, the other matchups were against the Texans and Jets. I see this as a game that benefits Dak more than Zeke, but a solid floor with upside exists at this price.
Alexander Mattison ($6600) – Here to consider if Dalvin Cook doesn’t play. While I don’t love the matchup for Dalvin, Mattison’s price is easier to burdon vs. the Browns’ solid run defense.
Nick Chubb ($7000) – This is a Nick Chubb game. If you read my Week 3 Breakdown, I predicted a Kareem Hunt game, and he delivered 27.50 points. Joe Mixon smashed for 28.00 points in Week 1. Arizona’s RBs didn’t in Week 2, but they aren’t a solid barometer. Chris Carson delivered 16.20 points last week, but the game script turned unfavorable for him, as the Seahawks trailed most of the game. Even with that, Carson rushed for 80 yards on 12 carries, which averaged him 6.2 ypc. Chubb jumped in Week 2 from $7200 to $7800. Since then, his salary has dropped by $800. It’s time to buy.
Najee Harris ($6800) – He’s snapping 96% on the season, so that alone at sub-7k will always have him in play. Green Bay is 17th vs. the run which should provide opportunity, but the Steelers haven’t run well through the first three weeks. His receptions last week pushed his salary up to $200, so not anything of concern, but I do presume his 14 receptions for 100 yds last week had a lot to do with Diontae Johnson’s absence. DJ is the check-down king for Ben. He practiced in full on Thursday, so those high receptions will likely be an anomaly. With that, there still is plenty of opportunity for some success for production. He’s not a free square with the minimal rushing yards, but a floor of 16 should be there with some upside. I’m paying the extra $200 if I can land Chubb.
The Mid-Mid Tier (RB)
Chris Carson ($6300) – I don’t anticipate playing Carson over Taylor at the same price. The 49ers defense has allowed points to Running Backs, but most of those points are through the air to D” Andrew Swift & Jamaal Williams in Week 1. Aaron Jones delivered in Week 3 with 17.60 points with 82 yards on 19 carries, so it is plausible for Carson to deliver, but that is the ceiling I see for him when Taylor’s ceiling feels significantly higher.
Miles Sanders ($6400) – The Chiefs are friendly to Running Backs, so this is a game that he is available if you want to add him to your lineup. Austin Ekeler delivered 22.70 vs. them last week, and Chubb & Hunt delivered 23.10 & 17.10 in Week 1. The Ravens in Week 2 showed less with 11.30 to Ty’Son Williams & 9.60 to Latavius Murray. Sanders is needed if the Eagles want a shot to control the game, but I view this game where Hurts will play catchup. If he’s utilized enough in the passing game and Kenny Gainwell can stay out of the way (which he shouldn’t), then he can deliver your hopeful results. Based on the prices of the other players in this tier, I anticipate a fade in my construction.
Jonathan Taylor ($6300) – If there is a time for Jonathan Taylor to show up, it is this game. He started in Week 1 with a salary of $8000. His price is now down $1700 from that point. There is almost 100% probability that the Dolphins are playing catchup or keep the game close to maintain the script of a Jonathan Taylor game. The lesser talents below have delivered against the 31st worst defense vs. RBs. There is no reason Taylor shouldn’t land as the highest-scoring back vs. the Dolphins once Week 4 is final.
D’Andre Swift ($6200) – At this point, as long as Swift is sub-7k, I don’t foresee not playing him. The matchup isn’t the best, but it’s a similar assessment as Week 1 vs. the 49ers, where he delivered 24.40 points. It was also the same vs. the Ravens last week, where he provided 23.70 points. At $7100 in the better matchup in Week 2, he disappointed with 11.80 vs. the Packers, so that is the current trend I’m following. He’s too explosive, too involved, and at this price, even half of his hopeful 24.80 needed to cover his cost feels like an affordable floor to achieve. Kareem Hunt was in the same space vs. the Bears last week as a secondary RB, so there is zero restraint from pulling this trigger if he was a green light. Don’t overthink it.
The Mid-Low Tier (RB)
Kareem Hunt ($6000) – As stated above, the matchup vs. the Vikings presents as a Nick Chubb game. Hunt has ruined that for us in the past, so while he is in this fade section, if I go heavy with Chubb, I will build a lineup with Hunt to protect myself, and if you follow the same course, you should too.
Antonio Gibson ($6100) – The matchup vs. the Flacons got Saquon on the right path with 21.40 points last week. I faded Gibson last week, and without one play, it was the right call. The challenge is JD McKissic and the potential return of Curtis Samuel. The communication was that Gibson would be the next CMC and receive a lot more receptions, but that hasn’t been the case. Without that one play last week, his average ppg would be 8.40 ppg. This is not what any of us expected, even if McKissic remained involved. The matchup is suitable for the taking, but landing as a DNP on Thursday is enough to fade him this week. Follow the news.
Chuba Hubbard ($5900) – I hate this price, but anyone below him is not worth the risk vs. his likely floor. Against the Texans, after CMC’s departure, Hubbard handled 54% of the snaps, 52 yards on 11 carries, and 27 yards on 3 receptions. It’s fair to assume that this usage continues vs. the Cowboys, but Freeman can be a factor. It’s not because I like Freeman, but their usage is unknown until the game kicks off. In Week 2, Ekeler is the only 20+ Running Back vs. the Cowboys, but I’d assume Hubbard can match or exceed his 22.50 performance. It would be nice to wait and see, but he’ll be up another $1100 by that time.
David Montgomery ($5800) – His snap was up 82% last week, from his 73% average. He’s needed, and the matchup is favorable for him to deliver. He landed with 27.10 points in their last matchup, but only 8.40 points in the previous one to that. Elijah Mitchell found 19.40 points in Week 1, Aaron Jones smashed with 41.50 points in Week 2, and the Ravens’ RBs dudded in Week 3. A wise coach would utilize him in this game to recover from last week’s massacre. The problem is Matt Nagy is not an intelligent coach. Hopefully, the concern of losing his job creates the apparent path here.
The Low Tier (RB)
Tony Pollard ($5700) – It’s a good game for the shot, but his price is too high to pay up to Hubbard instead.
Chase Edmonds ($5500) & James Conner ($5100) – The floor for Edmonds is pretty safe, but his ceiling is tough to predict. Conner found his way in the conversation last week with 18.30 points on 37% of the snaps. Guessing when is the right time to play them is not how DFS is played, or at least not how I play. With that, I’d think that vs. the Rams is not the week to attempt that luck.
Melvin Gordon III ($5500) & Javonte Williams ($5000) – They cancel each other’s value. There was one 20+ game, and that required a long unusual Melvin Gordon TD. If you can predict when that will happen, then feel free to add one of them to your lineup. Unfortunately, I can’t.
Jamaal Williams ($5300) – Since he delivered 25.00 points in Week 1, Williams followed up with 6.70 & 14.70 points. They’ll be some weeks that you wish you took the shot, but the right time to do that is when his price is low enough to warrant it. This price and matchup vs. the Bears are too high for that.
Nyheim Hines ($4900) – His PPR production always keeps him in play, but I’m calling for a Taylor-week this week.
Jeremy McNichols ($4800) – This would be a hard dart throw, but he may find some more time on the field than his 26.5% from last week with all the injuries. It won’t be something I’ll try, but maybe it entices you.
Royce Freeman ($4700) – He snapped 15% last week after CMC was injured.
Latavius Murray ($4700) – He’s maintained the Gus Edwards role with 33% of the snaps, but I won’t neglect to mention that he delivered 28.60 points vs. the Broncos last season when with the Saints.
Mark Ingram II ($4700), David Johnson ($4500), & Phillip Lindsay ($4300) – Not a single one of them snapped above 40% last week.
Darrel Williams ($4500) – CEH bounced back last week, but he did hit a season-high of snaps of 34% last week.
Devonta Freeman ($4000) – Only snapped 15.5% last week.
Malcolm Brown ($4300) – His snap % is too up and down with 30% in Week 1, 12% in Week 2, and 41% in Week 3.
Kenneth Gainwell ($4300) – He’s steadily snapping at 31-35%, which isn’t enough for the dart throw for me. Not a horrible matchup vs. the Chiefs if you feel bold enough.
Kerryon Johnson ($4400) – No snaps last week, even with Elijah Mitchell injured.
Anyone else not listed.
J.D. McKissic ($5000) & Jarret Patterson ($4000) – McKissic’s PPR keeps him in play, but that is at your comfort and discretion. Predicting when those games are in the cards occurs sometimes, but nothing in the data presents that success or lack thereof. WIth Gibson not practicing on Thursday, that is the real reason to consider him. Keep an eye on the injury report. If Gibson didn’t play, Patterson might fill that role with a lesser timeshare, and McKissic would likely maintain his part with a significant uptick in snaps.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5600) & Sony Michel ($5200) – The likely hopefully consensus is that Henderson doesn’t play. If that is the case, Michel is in play. With Henderson absent, he snapped 73% against a stout Buccaneers run defense. While the Cardinals stifled Derrick Henry to 10.70 points in Week 1, since then, they allowed 19.80 points to Dalvin Cook and 25.40 points to James Robinson. If Henderson goes, it warrants a shot with him, but they become more likely to minimize each other’s value if they both play.
Myles Gaskin ($5300) – The continued price warrants consideration. The matchup isn’t the likely path, but he’s still holding most of the snaps with 51.80% from last week. The ordinarily stout Colts front allowed 13.70 to Chris Carson, 17.20 to Darrell Henderson, and 22.40 to Derrick Henry. If Gaskin can find his way into that average and the end zone, it warrants his low salary.
Ty’Son Williams ($5200) – This doesn’t feel like the week to play him. He’s still leading the backfield with 50% of the snaps from last week, but this game presents more favorably for Lamar Jackson than their backfield. While they’ve been lesser matchups than the Ravens, no single back has produced above 9.40 points this season vs. the Broncos.
Mike Davis ($5100) & Cordarrelle Patterson ($4900) – Last week, CP84 continued to outproduce Davis with 16.20 points to Davis’ 11 points. Patterson also increased his snap share from 33% to 42%. People are buying and catching on, but it feels like the wrong matchup to take the splash. Washinton’s front is solid, and they’ve proven that with pass-catching backs, as well. While Zach Moss delivered 18.10 last week, no Running Backs provided more than 11.70 in the two weeks prior, including Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler.
Zack Moss ($5300) & Devin Singletary ($4800) – There’s production coming out of this backfield. After a healthy scratch in Week 1, Moss went from 27% of the snaps in Week 2 to 55% last week. He delivered 16.40 & 18.10 points in those two games. He’s presenting as a hot hand to ride, but the matchup shows less favorable, with only one RB reaching above 15 points this season. That is due more to their poor pass defense than their stout front. This game script should present favorably for someone in this backfield to close out the game. Moss seems the likely benefactor, but Singletary could always be the hot hand this week, as that seems to be the approach of the Bills staff since the snap shares are up and down. Singletary snapped 40% last week but was the lead back in Week 2 with 66%.
Ty Johnson ($4600), Michael Carter ($4500), & Tevin Coleman ($4400) – Sometimes, it takes an odd shot to make a lineup work. I won’t do it, but the matchup warrants consideration as one of these players could land their low needed floor to meet their price of 18 points. The highest output is 10.80 by Michael Carter in Week 2. He’s also averaged the most amount of snaps through the season at 44%. I doubt it, but you never know.
Eli Mitchell ($5400) & Trey Sermon ($5000) – I don’t feel the Seahawks are as bad against the run as the numbers present since Derrick Henry torched them for 50.70 in Week 2 which inflated the numbers. Both are worth the shot, though, even if they both play since this offense runs through the running game. My tweet below shows my current take:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5400) – His price tag is still too cheap for what can be delivered. Is it the same conversation of his $4800 from last week? No. Is it a place to find value? 100%. Historically, the Eagles limit production to the running game. Ezekiel Elliot ran too easily through their front seven with Brandon Graham out last week and landed with 26.60 points. The Cowboys have a better offensive line than the Chiefs, and CEH isn’t Zeke, but the Chiefs’ offensive threats create space for the running game. I’d temper expectations, but the floor should be there, and with the right lineup construction, I’d happily accept the Chiefs starting Running Back at $5400.
I wrote everything above on Thursday night and wrote everything below on Friday night.
Julio Jones ($6500) & A.J. Brown ($6300) – Both are OUT. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3200) snapped 78% with both of their departures last week, while Chester Rogers ($3300) snapped 41%. Josh Reynolds ($3000) was inactive in Week 3 due to special teams factors.
Chase Claypool ($6100) – He was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice but DNP practice on Friday. Hamstrings are tricky so that DNP is a concern.
Elijah Moore ($3900) – Moore is OUT. See below.
Jamison Crowder ($4600) – Practiced in full on Friday, so he should make his season debut.
Russell Gage ($4300) – Gage is OUT. Olamide Zacchaeus ($4100) will receive the start, and Tajae Sharpe ($3000) will gain more snaps. Cordarrelle Patterson ($4900) may also see an uptick in work, as well.
Sterling Shepard ($5500) & Darius Slayton ($4200) – Both are OUT. Kenny Golladay ($5500) practiced in a limited capacity all week, but it sounds like he’s playing. Kadarius Toney ($3300) & Collin Johnson ($3200) are likely to fill the voids of Shepard and Slayton.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4300) – MVS is OUT. Allen Lazard ($3600) & Randall Cobb ($3300) will gain an uptick in snaps from their 66% & 33% last week.
Tyler Lockett ($7100) – After a DNP on Thursday, Lockett practiced in full on Friday.
Curtis Samuel ($3000) – Samuel was activated off of IR and is eligible to play this week.
The High Tier (WR)
Tyreek Hill ($8000) – The Eagles surrendered the least amount of points to WRs on the season. Only Deebo Samuel has eclipsed 15 points with 16.10 in Week 2. CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Calvin Ridley all scored under 10.10 points vs. the Eagles. Hill has 10.70 & 5.90 points in the last two weeks after a 40.10 point thrashing in Week 1. We know the explosion is coming, but I will spend that hefty salary elsewhere this week.
Cooper Kupp ($7800) – His salary was $4900 in Week 1, $6000 in Week 2, & $6800 in Week 3. Each week the point production of 26.80, 39.80, & 30.60 have met the budget. I don’t see him disappearing, but for me, he’s finally reached a price that I can’t guarantee he makes it to my lineups. The Cardinals only allowed 1 20+ WR all season, but that isn’t even to warrant fading Kupp. The price is too rich for my blood because I’m all about discounts and value.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7700) – The Jalen Ramsey narrative, injury concerns, and his measly 5.10 points from last week will scare people off of Hopkins. He practiced fully in the previous two sessions, so the injury concern is no longer a factor. The Rams haven’t disclosed if Ramsey will follow Hop this week, so it’s a guessing game at this point. In the last two weeks, the Rams allowed 23.30 points to Michael Pittman, 19.60 points to Chris Godwin, and 21.60 points to Mike Evans, so there is an opportunity for Hopkins to hit the 30.8 points need to rationalize his salary. I don’t anticipate that ceiling, and I’m less likely to play him, but $7700 is a fair price for Hopkins if you like his chances this week.
Davante Adams ($7900) – The Steelers limited Stefon Diggs in Week 1 with 15.90 points and then allowed Henry Ruggs to go for 25.50 points in Week 2, with JaMarr Chase gaining 22.50 points in Week 3. MVS is out, which can help the Steelers shrink the field with the Packers’ deep threat unavailable. Adams targets are too high to ignore and should receive a ton of work this week. His price is the least it’s been this whole season, with his salary at $8300 the last three weeks.
Stefon Diggs ($7600) – Diggs has not had that big game yet, and his salary remains at a floor of $7600. His average of 14.70 points on the season should provide a lower discount, but the matchup likely kept his price up. The Texans allowed 18.70 & 17.60 to Marvin Jones & DJ Chark in Week 1. In Week 2, the Browns lost Landry a few snaps in the game, which limited the depleted WR core with no production. DJ Moore landed with 23.50 points in Week 3. It presents as a week where Diggs can finally deliver that big game. The hurdle is whether the Texans can keep up enough for Diggs to hit the 30.4 points to warrant his salary.
The Mid-High Tier (WR)
Julio Jones ($6500) & A.J. Brown ($6300) – Both are OUT.
Chase Claypool ($6100) – Claypool DNP practice on Friday.
Justin Jefferson ($7300) – Jefferson was only 100 less last week and hit for 29.80 points vs. the Seahawks. There’s no reason for his 20.28 ppg not to continue. The Browns are stout vs. WRs, but most of that is due to their thrashing of the Bears last week. Two weeks prior, they allowed 22.80 points to Brandin Cooks in Week 2, and Tyreek Hill delivered 40.10 points in Week 1. While I like Jefferson this week, the other prices in this range feel unnecessary to pay up for him.
Adam Thielen ($6800) – His floor continues to be solid. I write that because Thielen drives me nuts from his previous up and down ceiling. He’s averaging 21.03 ppg with 15.90 as his lowest output. If you like him, the matchup and price are fair enough to utilize him. I’m fading him because I prefer the lower prices of the players in this tier. It’s merely a budget decision.
Deebo Samuel ($6500) – Samuel lands in consideration due to the more preferred options below. His price is lower than those options, and due to not having faith in Jimmy G, I’d like a lower discount to get him in some lineups. Since his 35.90 point explosion in Week 1, he followed up with 16.10 & 10.20 points. The Seahawks allowed Zach Pascal with 20.30 points, Julio Jones with 21.80 points, Justin Jefferson with 29.80 points, and Adam Thielen with 17.00. Deebo averaged 24.85 in the two games vs. Seattle in 2019. He missed most of 2020.
CeeDee Lamb ($6700) & Amari Cooper ($6000) – The Panthers are ranked 8th vs. WRs. “Oh, the fear!” No, it’s not real. With one stout performance of the three games played, it makes stats very volatile. The Panthers gave up season-high performances to Corey Davis for 26.70 points and 23.70 points to Brandin Cooks. They faced the Jets, Saints, & Texans. The Panthers are a better defense, but not one that will slow down the Cowboys’ offense. The difficult question is usually which one, but at these prices, I’m saying both.
DJ Moore ($6600) – Moore is the 6th highest targeted WR in the league. The Cowboys slowed down the Eagles’ WRs last week, but in Weeks 1 & 2, they allowed 27.50 points to Chris Godwin, 26.70 points to Antonio Brown, 22.10 points to Mike Williams, and 17.80 points to Keenan Allen.
Diontae Johnson ($6200) – The Packers are 6th vs. WRs, but have only played the Saints, Lions, and 49ers. Even with those poor matchups, Deonte Harris had 15.20 points, Quintez Cephus had 16.30 points, and Aiyuk had 14.50 points. We’d prefer more from Aiyuk, but I temper expectation from a run-first offense and sub-par QB. Johnson’s targets landed in Najee Harris’s hands last week, which provided him with 14 receptions for 102 yards. With his return and Claypool not practicing, there is more opportunity to build on Johnson’s safe floor.
Calvin Ridley ($7000) – Ridley’s point floor and utilization are too safe not to continue using him at this price. Washington’s weakness is its secondary. Their pass-rush, which isn’t getting home, can help in that space. I anticipate a better performance from their defense, but that shouldn’t slow Ridley from eating if the pass-rush does or doesn’t get home. Solid production or garbage time both count. The Football Team allowed Mike Williams & Keenan Allen to each reach 22.00 points in Week 1, Sterling Shephard 17.50 points in Week 2, and Emmanuel Sanders & Cole Beasley both eclipsed 20 points in Week 3.
Terry McLaurin ($6900) – While expected, McLaurin was slowed down by Tre’Davious White in Week 3. Sadly, we didn’t get a discount from that 10.20 point week. The price is still worth his production and matchup vs. Atlanta. The Falcons slowed the Giants’ WRs to a 10.40 ceiling from Kenny Golladay. In Week 2, they allowed Mike Evans 24.50 points & 16.20 points to Chris Godwin. Week 1 DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor both reached their season-high of 19.10 & 16.90 points. There’s no reason McLaurin can’t thrive here.
Brandin Cooks ($6400) – Cooks price is not matching his production. Having Davis Mills as his QB and the matchup are the two reasons why. The Bills haven’t allowed a WR above 15 points. Due to Cooks moving around and likely avoid Tre’Davious, he should be the first to eclipse that. His production is as perfect as it can get for the budget allotted for his salary:
DK Metcalf ($7200) & Tyler Lockett ($7100) – The 49ers played the Lions and Eagles in Weeks 1 & 2, which boosted their rating vs. WR. Davante Adams showed up in Week 3 for 34.20 points. One or both of Metcalf or Lockett should have plenty of opportunity vs. the 49ers, who are better at slowing down the run, as their points vs. in that area were inflated due to the centralized production of the Lions’ RBs in Week 1. The struggle is which WR to roll with as Lockett was a DNP on Thursday but returned as a full participant on Friday. I usually take the lower salary when it feels like a tie, but in this case, I’ll try for Metcalf first but gladly accept Lockett if my lineup falls $100 short.
The Mid-Mid Tier (WR)
Courtland Sutton ($5700) – The fact that he failed vs. the Jets last week makes it challenging to play him vs. the Ravens. The Ravens haven’t allowed a WR to score above 14.30 points on the season, and that includes a matchup vs. the Chiefs. The other two were vs. the Raiders & Lions, so there is room for things to change, but I won’t have him in my lineups when it pans out.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5600) – I faded JuJu last week where the opportunity for him was perfect with Diontae Johnson out. I’m not sure what the opposite of a truther is, but that is what I’ve been for Smith-Schuster. He delivered one season of success while playing next to Antonio Brown, and most WRs could thrive in that situation. I understand opportunities will arrive and some big games, but I will miss them along with the higher percentage busts he constantly delivers. Maybe if he falls $1000 to $1500 is when I’d consider him.
Sterling Shepard ($5500) – Shepard is OUT.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($5400) – The Raiders are 12th vs. WRs, but two matchups were against the Raiders and Patriots. Agholor hit with 18.20 points and Hunter Renfrow with 18.70. Those are high outputs for those players. On the other side, the Dolphins limited Stefon Diggs to 16.00 points. Pittman is too overpriced compared to the other players in this range to take a chance.
Allen Robinson II ($5800) – I’m not sure that I’ll have the guts to roll him out with Dalton limited and the QB decision landing as a game-time decision. This is the type of trigger that hits a bullseye to win the whole tournament. Even if it is Fields, to assume the exact outcome of last week is unlikely. While it can happen, the ownership for both the Bears’ starting QB and Robinson will be in the dumps because of last week. If not for last week, DFS’ers would chomp at the bit for this opportunity vs. the Lions. Deebo Samuel delivered 35.90 points in Week 1, Davante Adams had 23.10 points in Week 2, and Marquise Brown only had 8.30 points, but if not for multiple dropped passes, he would’ve surpassed the 20-point threshold. Robinson’s history vs. the Lions is less than stellar with only two 20+ point performances out of seven:
While I type all of this, the upside is too much not to build at least one lineup with Dalton or Fields and Robinson. Suppose the projected ownership lands at 2%, which provides you a fast track to a first-place win between you and 5000 others if it hits. A $20 or less entry fee is worth that risk.
Kenny Golladay ($5500) – I’m torn about what to do with Kenny Golladay. He’s the exact type of player you want at a low price that can deliver that big game, but there is nothing substantial to sell that the big game will happen. He’s in consideration due to his price and the fact that Shepard & Slayton are out. The assumption is that the targets will funnel Golladay’s way due to those abscesses, but the problem with both of those players out is it is more likely that Marshon Lattimore shadows him. I’m genuinely 50/50 with whether to use or fade him.
DeVonta Smith ($5700) – Jarvis Landry, with 19.40 points, Marquise Brown, with 26.30 points, Mike Williams, with 36.20 points, and Keena Allen, with 19.00 points all delivered vs. the Chiefs. Smith should reclaim his success of 19.10 points, as he did vs. the Falcons. The challenge is this offense and its lack of production. All season, no WR has eclipsed 20 points. Philly’s WR only landed three 15+ point games which included Smith’s performance in week 1. The price is fair to add him to a Beckham lineup, but it is too challenging to pick him instead of Beckham.
Robert Woods ($5300) – His lack of production is not on him. Robert Wood is a good WR. Kupp’s eating so much that there is not enough to go around. While I won’t fault you for fading him, his price is too low not to consider the opportunity. He’s the prime example of a player’s salary continually falling that we’ll all regret not buying when he has a big. He snaps 87% on the season and has a history of success. His past matchups verse the Cardinals are up and down. From the tail end of 2018 and 2019, he amassed a 27.40 average in those three games. The two games after, he landed with an average of 13.05. He has a different Quarterback now, and unfortunately, he is besties with Cooper Kupp. I’m less likely to play him with the Cardinals playing well vs. WR, but the Vikings landed 20.10 points from KJ Osborn, 18.50 points from Justin Jefferson, and 15.90 from Adam Thielen.
Christian Kirk ($5300) – Kirk is not the type of player I usually play. His 58% snap on the season is too low for my liking. If you’re not on the field, you have fewer opportunities. With that, the matchup speaks for Jalen Ramsey to cover DeAndre Hopkins some or most of the game. If that is the case, then Kyler Murray has to go elsewhere. AJ Green’s price and snap percentage are friendlier, but Kirk’s production is better. Rondale Moore is also a factor, so assuming this is more likely than not is not a guarantee. As you might assess while reading this, I’m not in love with all the variables here. He will quickly find his way into a Kyler lineup, but singularly, I’ll likely land somewhere else.
Cole Beasley ($5400) – Beasley is always worth a shot. When I go out of my way to play him, it is usually because of a discounted salary, which doesn’t strongly exist here. Additionally, I try to identify previous success from slot WRs vs. his current opponent. The Texans have allowed some, but it doesn’t feel bullet-proof. DJ Moore, who is not the same WR as Beasley, produced last week vs. the Texans with 23.50 points. Jarvis Landry was injured early in Week 2, and Laviska Shenault landed 12.90 points in Week 1. I’ll utilize him in a Josh Allen lineup, but unlikely singularly at this price.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($5800) – There are zero reasons for Odell not to thrive vs. the Vikings. He’ll have high ownership, and I have nothing to share why you should pivot from him at this price.
Marquise Brown ($5400) – I’m not going nuts here, but I do like the play and price. While the Broncos are a solid defense, they’ve allowed production to similar players as Brown. Marvin Jones delivered 17.50 points in Week 2, and Sterling Shepard delivered 27.30 points in Week 1. Brown was solid up until his pass drops last week. I chalk that up to not practicing due to recovering from an injury. Lamar Jackson will have to win this game, so I anticipate a lot of running on his part, and when those scrambles turn to passes, he’ll go back to Brown, who delivered 26.30 & 19.40 points before last week’s dud.
The Mid-Low Tier (WR)
DeVante Parker ($5200) – He’s snapping 78% on the season but only averaging 9.83 ppg. If he surprisingly pops, I won’t benefit from it.
Sammy Watkins ($5100) – He’s snapping 84% on the season but hasn’t surpassed 13.60 points on the season. The pecking order goes through the run game, Brown, Andrews, and then him.
Tim Patrick ($4900) – He’s snapped 76% last game, and his floor’s been phenomenal for his price. While his base is 12.70, his ceiling is only 14.80. While a variation of that should continue, the matchup vs. the Ravens isn’t as friendly as the three previous vs. the Jets, Jaguars, and Giants. I prefer Waddle at this price.
Jalen Reagor ($4700) – While he snapped 86% last week, he’s not a player that I play. Can he hit 20 points, of course, but it’s never happened in his short career.
Zach Pascal ($4500) – While he presents a high snap count of 90% on the season, he’s not the talent I want, or in an offense, we can trust. His price is friendly, but predicting the one or two games you wished you rostered him is not in the cards this week.
Jaylen Waddle ($4900) – His snaps, utilization, and ppg are up. He delivered 16.10 in Week 1 but fell to 9.80 points in Week 2. Last week he was back to 17.80 vs. the Raiders. The Colts allowed boom production to players closer to his caliber with Tyler Lockett (29.00) and Cooper Kupp (39.80). With Brissett keep him productive, he’s more worth the play than a fade, especially at this price.
Will Fuller V ($4800) – In his first game of the season, he snapped 61% and delivered 7.00 points. We know he can blow up, and at this price, it isn’t a bad shot. Brissett has a deep ball, so this isn’t an overly recommended play, but the boom week is coming. The question is when.
Emmanuel Sanders ($4900) – Last week, he was the piece to buy at $4600. I’m not into chasing, but snapping 79% last week in a potent offense is not something to ignore. My assessment leans more to fading him than playing him because he’s snapped 83% on the season, so while it was excellent last week, where were you in Weeks 1-2? In those weeks, he delivered 9.20 & 6.80 points. The salary is friendly, so not an issue if you utilize his services, but I prefer a higher floor vs. the current boom or bust.
Rondale Moore ($4600) – His breakdown is similar to the assessment of Kirk but at a smaller snap share. He’s only snapped 36% on the season and 34% last week. I don’t utilize players like this outside of a Kyler Murray lineup, but feel free to take your shot if you are inclined.
Jamison Crowder ($4600) – Crowder is one of my favorite DFS players. He’s always affordable, his floor is usually very friendly, and he hits his ceiling a lot. Somehow he’s always injured, which keeps his salary down, and when he comes back, he brings the noise. The matchup is prime. The Titans hemorrhaged points to Tyler Lockett (34.80), DeAndre Hopkins (21.00), Christian Kirk (24.00), and Freddie Swain (21.00).
Brandon Aiyuk ($5000) – The oddity that started the season has surpassed. Aiyuk snapped 62% on the season, but last week landed at 85%. He’s ascending in snap count, utilization, and ppg. Fortunately, his salary has not caught up as that only increase $100 since dropping $800 over the two previous weeks. Aiyuk feels pretty safe, and with only 20 points to warrant his salary, he lands as a solid buy. The matchup is solid, and in his last matchup vs. the Seahawks, he delivered 23.10 points. My only concern is his quarterback.
Corey Davis ($5000) – Revenge game aside, this is a matchup to take a chance on Davis. Corey Davis is my 2nd favorite Jets WR this week, and if his salary were lower than Jamison Crowder’s, he’d be my first.
AJ Green ($4500) – Green delivered 19.20 points last week. Based on my breakdown of Kirk & Moore, you’ll understand that I pursue the WR with his time on the field. Green snapped 79% last week and 80% on the season. At this price, I will continue to utilize him when I need a low-priced WR.
Robby Anderson ($5100) – Anderson looked like he was developing into a solid WR2 last season. Now, he’s reunited with his old friend Sam Darnold, and he doesn’t have a game over 12.70 points. He’s averaged 73% of the snaps but was down to 64% last week. There should be plenty of offense to go around, and he only requires one play to reward the purchase. In 2019, with Darnold as his quarterback on the Jets, he found his way to 26.50 points. I anticipate high ownership for DJ Moore and Anderson is a nice pivot or protection if Moore doesn’t produce.
The Low-High Tier (WR)
Kalif Raymond ($4400) – He snapped 74% last week, but we’ll need to see more before giving him a shot.
Marquez Callaway ($4300) – His snap percent was down last week to 61% from his season average of 72%. They need help at WR, so taking snaps away from him is not a good sign.
Rashard Higgins ($4300) – His snap count is up to 49% from his season average of 42%. That is not exciting.
Russell Gage ($4300) – Gage is OUT.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4300) – MVS is OUT.
Darius Slayton ($4200) – Slayton is OUT.
Anyone else not listed.
Mecole Hardman ($4400) – With the Josh Gordon signing, Hardman might be motivated to maintain his role. He snapped 72% last week and delivered 10.50 & 12.50 points in the previous two weeks. He’s not someone I’ll play singularly, but stacking him next to Kelce or Hill in a Mahomes lineup can provide salary relief.
James Washington ($4100) – He snapped 80% with Diontae Johnson out last week. Claypool DNP on Friday, so the opportunity might be there for him to play. I’m not likely to utilize him, but he has shown success in previous fill-in roles. Last week’s fade of 5.00 points was not one of them.
Olamide Zaccheaus ($4100) – He’s a player that delivered in the past when filling in for injured players, but this year is different. They need a WR2, and neither Gage nor Zaccheaus have excited. Gage is out, so it presents the opportunity for his 51% snap count to rise. The offense lacks any luster, so temper expectations, but I anticipate utilizing him if I love the remaining eight pieces parked next to him.
The Low-Mid Tier (WR)
Darnell Mooney ($3900) – I can’t rationalize going here if I’m struggling to play Allen Robinson due to their offense. With that, he’s snapping 95% on the season but only averaging 7.37 ppg.
Elijah Moore ($3900) – Moore is OUT.
Braxton Berrios ($3700) – Jamison Crowder is back.
Anyone else not listed.
Terrace Marshall Jr. ($4000) – His snap count is up to 62% from his 55% average. Due to the plus matchup, there might be some opportunity for him to hit the 16 points needed to cover his salary. He’s not a great piece to build with, but he provides salary relief for the opportunity to purchase some higher-tiered players.
Cedrick Wilson ($4000) – Wilson shares a similar breakdown as Marshall but is on the other side of the matchup. The difference here is that he only snapped 38% last week. He landed 9.70 points with that limited opportunity.
Anthony Miller ($3700) – In his first game of the season, he snapped 63% and landed 12 points. The Texans need help, so he’s not someone I plan to play this week, but keeping an eye on the situation as he’s a good player.
Quintez Cephus ($4000) – I like Cephus, but I don’t like his 1.80 points from last week vs. the Ravens. In his two previous matchups, he landed at 16.30 & 12.20. If any WR can deliver for the Lions, it is likely Cephus. This is not the matchup I want to take a shot on vs. the Bears, but a team’s number one WR at 4k is not something to neglect. I wouldn’t bet my week on him, but it’s not a horrendous move if he’s the last piece to a lineup.
K.J. Osborn ($3700) – The Vikings seem to create close games. Last week when the trend of his 14.60 & 20.10 points in Weeks 1 & 2 ended, the Vikings solidified their victory early. Osborn presented as a good buy, but he landed with 4.60 points. With his last game being the anomaly, he’s worthy of consideration at such a low price for some salary relief.
Freddie Swain ($3900) – He delivered 21.00 points two weeks ago. Last week, he only found 3.10 points but snapped 85%. Using him as a double-stack in a Wilson lineup is the only path I’d consider him.
Van Jefferson Jr. ($3900) – His production isn’t there outside of his 16.00 points in Week 1, but he is snapping 79% on the season. Not a horrible addition to a solid Stafford lineup.
DeSean Jackson ($3800) – 32% snap count is not enough for me to take the shot unless the Stafford lineup is perfect and he’s the only gamble.
The Low-Low Tier (WR)
Adam Humphries ($3600) – Curtis Samuel was activated off of IR.
Quez Watkins ($3500) – He’ll require a big play from the 54% snap average that increased last week to 66%. If it happens, I won’t benefit from it.
Deonte Harris ($3500) – He was only snapping 40% on the season, and last week that dropped to 31%.
Gabriel Davis ($3400) – 37% snap share on the season, and last week it was 29%.
Dyami Brown ($3400) – Brown snapped 81% on the season, which dropped to 65% last week, and now Curtis Samuel is set to return.
Anyone else not listed.
Kadarius Toney ($3300) – His 33% snap average jumped to 66%. That should continue with Shepard and Slayton out. If Lattimore follows Golladay, Toney might be the benefactor.
Kenny Stills ($3000) – I feel like I find a diamond in the rough. While we know Kenny Stills, and he’s delivered success for many of us, but not many people are talking about his snaps with the Saints. In his first game, all other WRs decreased in snaps, and Stills landed with 47%. I’d anticipate that going up, and they need someone to show up in the passing game. The problem is the Giants haven’t let up any WRs above 14.10 points except Terry McLaurin in Week 2. I don’t recommend him, but maybe some news surfaces before kickoff that warrants a play.
Parris Campbell ($3200) – Campbell snapped 80% last week, and while that jumped, it did nothing for his points as he landed with 2.90 points in a plus matchup vs. the Titans.
Chester Rogers ($3300), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3200), Josh Reynolds ($3000), Cameron Batson ($3000) – With Julio Jones & AJ Brown out, someone or sometwo will benefit here. This article from the Pro Football Network feels like the correct assessment of the situation:
Curtis Samuel ($3000) – It is always challenging to pick players returning from injury, but when they cost 3k, you have to take a shot. Samuel will not maintain this price no matter what he produces in Week 4. The matchup vs. the Falcons is friendly enough for him to succeed. He only requires 12 points to warrant his salary. In his last two matchups vs. the Falcons, he landed 21.40 in the last one and 11.40 in the previous one.
Allen Lazard ($3600) – With MVS out this week, Lazard’s 64% snap count and opportunities should increase.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3200) – See article above.
The High Tier (TE)
Travis Kelce ($8100) – He’s the only salary up here, so if you can afford it, he’s always in play. The Eagles limited Kyle Pitts & George Kittle to 7.10 & 5.70 points in Weeks 1 & 2 but allowed Dalton Schultz 26.00 points last week.
The Mid-Tier (TE)
Dallas Goedert ($4800) – His price is too high for his 65% snap count. Goedert snapped 59%, while Ertz snapped 52% last week. The reason to consider him is due to the matchup. The Chiefs should have a lead, and the Eagles still need someone to step up in this offense. Outside of DeVonta Smith, it would have to be him, but I’d still play Higbe at a lower price and better snap count.
Mark Andrews ($5300) – Andrews woke up last week in a plus matchup vs. the Lions. The matchup vs. the Broncos is more difficult, but they provide points inside, where he thrives. The same reason why Marquise Brown should have opportunities is where Andrews can produce. I’ll likely pay up for Hock versus saving here, but he’s not a fade for me.
Robert Tonyan ($4500) – If there is a week to take a shot at Tonyan, this feels like a good space. With MVS out, targets will land elsewhere. Even a slight increase can make the difference. Last week, Tonyan jumped to 73% of the snaps from his 55% season average. There were 0 points from the Bengals TEs last week. In the previous week, Waller was limited to 11.50 points, but his counterpart Foster Moreau found 11.40, as well. In Week 1, Dawson Knox had 8.10 points.
George Kittle ($5900) – In seven matchups vs. the Seahawks, Kittle has never surpassed 16.30 points. The Seahawks haven’t played any significant TEs this season but allowed Tyler Conklin to hit 20.00 points last week. Having Kittle at this price should be exciting, but his 11.20 average has tempered our expectations. He delivered 17.10 points last week, and if that is the beginning of his climb, it would be a shame to miss this price.
Tyler Higbee ($4600) – Higbee snapped 75% last week, down from his 92% average. His points went up with less time on the field and a better matchup vs. the Buccaneers. In 2019, he averaged 24.55 points vs. the Cardinals. In 2020, he averaged 9.75 points. The Cardinals haven’t played any TEs of relevance that limits comfort, but I’d lean toward buying vs. fading at this price.
Kyle Pitts ($5000) – The excitement of Pitts has died. The matchup is in the middle of the road. The Football Team allowed Knox to get 14.90 points last week, 4.50 points to Kyle Rudolphi in Week 2, & Jared Cook 10.60 points in Week 1. Based on those results, I’d lean toward playing him than fading him.
T.J. Hockenson ($5800) – The reason for George Kittle landing in consideration is due to Hockenson costing $100 less. Last week he disappointed vs. the Ravens. The Bears are solid too, but his average in their previous two matchups is 16 points. While he disappointed last week, he delivered 25.70 & 20.60 in the two weeks prior. Look for Hock to rebound.
Logan Thomas ($4900) – He’s snapped 100% on the season. The matchup should provide an opportunity since they’ve allowed 19.90 points to Rob Gronkowski in Week 2 and Dallas Goedert for 14.20 points in Week 1. Last week, Evan Engram returned from injury, but only with 3.10 points. Thomas feels safe with his 11.57 ppg.
The Low Tier (TE)
Noah Fant ($4300) – The Ravens are the worst on paper vs. the TE, but that is due to playing Waller and Kelce. Hockenson faced them last week, and I faded him and his 3.00 points.
Mike Gesicki ($4000) – Jacoby Brissett likes his TEs, and Gesicki benefited with 18.60 points. The Colts have phenomenal LBs, so I’ll likely wait and see how this develops with the 2nd week of Brissett. The Colts haven’t allowed more than 10 points to TEs, and those matchups included Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, and Geoff Swaim.
Austin Hooper ($3700) – Hooper hasn’t hit double-digits this season. He’s snapping 65% on the season. On a positive note, if you are interested, the Vikings allowed 16.40 points to Maxx Williams in Week 2.
Tyler Conklin ($3500) – Conklin showed up out of nowhere last week with 20.00 points vs. the Seahawks. That makes me like Kittle more than it makes me want to chase Conklin. Currently, that production is a fad, so if it trends, I’ll miss this wave. He snapped 72%, and the Browns’ only real matchup vs. TEs was Kelce, where he delivered 25.60 points.
Dawson Knox ($3600) – He found 14.90 points last week vs. the Football Team, but I’ll require more of this to play him. With how friendly his price is, he is worth considering since he is developing a floor. Knox had 8.10, 9.70, & 14.90 points on the season. He snapped 79% last week, which is up from his 73% average. Having a piece of the Bills offense is one selling point and the other presents as an uptick in production for TEs vs. the Texans. In Week 1, James O’Shaughnessy & Chris Martinez had 10.80 & 9.20 points. In Week 2, Austin Hooper & Harrison Bryant had 9.00 & 8.90 points. In Week 3, Tommy Tremble had 10.70 points. While those numbers aren’t massive, neither are the talents behind them, as they are likely season highs for all of them.
Dalton Schultz ($3400) – Due to the matchup and not the 26.00 points from last week, I’ll consider Schultz. He is snapping 70% on the season. This season, the Panthers faced Jordan Aikins, Juwan Johnson, & Tyler Kroft, where the highest output was 7.20 points. I’ll likely have him a Dak lineup as an add-on stack.
Evan Engram ($3000) – It’s challenging to play him, but with all the injuries to the Giants’ WRs, he’s in play. He needs a measly 12 points to warrant this cost. On 56% of the snaps last week, he landed 3.10, so yes, I know he can disappoint. While the matchup isn’t friendly vs. the Saints, he’s done it in the past. I don’t recommend rostering him, but if you’re searching for a discount, the opportunity is there with his upside.
Eric Ebron ($3300) & Pat Freiermuth ($3100) – Playing either of these is exceptionally challenging. Ebron’s had two 0.00 point performances and a high of 2.90 points while he’s snapped 49% on the season. Freiermuth has 11.20, 7.60, & 3.40 but is only snapping 48% of the season. You ask, then why are either of these two in play? It is due to was presents as a developing trend in production to TEs:
Up until last week, George Kittle had 5.70 & 10.80 points. Hockenson dudded last week with 3.00 points, and previous to the performance above, he delivered 25.70 points. Since Juwan Johnson landed those 17.10 points in Week 1, he’s had 3.30 and 0.00 points. Will I go heavy with either Ebron or Freiermuth? No, but will I ignore this? That is a no, as well. I will have at least two lineups with each of them.
Disclaimer: Defenses are a dime a dozen. The scoring on DraftKings doesn’t allow for any strategic approach that is significant. While points against, sacks, and turnovers are factors, the points aren’t impactful enough from those stats. It always feels like the only benefit from a defense is a KR, PR, or turnover for a TD. With that, don’t put too much pressure on obtaining a defense. I primarily utilize a High, Mid, & Low Tier Defense for my lineups. It doesn’t always fall perfectly, and in some cases, I’ll just accept what lands for me. I have strong preferences, but I won’t sacrifice the other pieces for the defense if I don’t like it. With that, if some data can help steer us, I will provide it.
The High Tier (DEF/ST)
Panthers ($3400) – I assess that the Panthers are not a top defense as their stats provide. The lesser opponents played accumulated 8, 12, & 9 points. All it takes is a pick-6 from Dak for me to be wrong, but I’ll be fading them unless they fall to me in a great lineup. The Cowboys have allowed 8 points to the Eagles, 5 to the Chargers, & 2 to the Buccaneers.
Ravens ($3400) – The Ravens delivered 3 to the Lions & Chiefs and 4 verse the Raiders. The Broncos allowed 4 to the Jets, 9 to the Jaguars, & 4 to the Giants.
Bears ($3700) – The Lions keep fighting, which has limited defenses to 3, 6, & 10 points from the Ravens, Packers, & 49ers. The Bears delivered 7 last week, 19 in Week 2, & 0 in Week 1. In the previous two seasons, the Bears averaged 4.75 points vs. the Lions with a high of 8 points.
Broncos ($3700) – It’s hard to pull this trigger with the Bears at the same price with the better matchup, but the Broncos have 19, 9, & 8 on the season. The Ravens allowed 7 points to each of their opponents this season. Not likely something I’d do, but the numbers say to play them.
Saints ($3800) – The Saints are playing like a top defense with 20, 6, & 15 points. They face the Giants, who allowed 5, 3, & 8 points to the Falcons, Football Team, & Broncos.
WAS Football Team ($3500) – Based on price, this is the place I want to land. The Giants had 6 points, the Buccaneers had 19 points, and the Eagles had 10 points vs. the Falcons. The Football Team has disappointed their hype while only delivering -4, 3, & 5 points.
Titans ($3900) – The Titans were the popular pick last week and disappointed with 3 points, which is their high on the season. They face the Jets, who allowed 19 points to the Broncos and Patriots, and 9 points to the Panthers.
Bills ($4300) – The Bills are a solid NFL defense, but the Texans haven’t given up a lot of points to defenses. The Panthers landed 8 last week, the Browns landed 5 in Week 2, and the Jaguars had -3 in Week 1.
Rams ($3600) – The Cardinals allowed 8 points to the Jaguars, 12 to the Vikings, and 0 to the Titans. The Rams haven’t landed any big performances, only landing 3, 8, & 8 points on the season. Their history vs. the Cardinals involves a ton of solid performances. In the last two seasons, they’ve averaged 15 ppg:
The Mid Tier (DEF/ST)
Packers ($3300) – The Bengals found 12 points vs. the Steelers last week, while the Raiders had 5, and the Bills had 2. The Packers landed 7 vs. the 49ers, 6 vs. the Lions, and -4 vs. the Saints.
Dolphins ($3200) – The Dolphins had 10 points last week and 3 & 6 in their two previous games. The Colts have only allowed 3, 8, & 6 points to the Titans, Rams, & Seahawks. Due to preferring the Chiefs at the same price is why I’m fading.
49ers ($3100) – They had a 19 point performance in Week 10 of 2019 vs. the Seahawks. Since then they 1, -2, & 2. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a defense over 4 points on the season. The 49ers delivered solid performance vs. the Eagles (8) and the Lions (10) but landed a 0 vs. the Packers.
Steelers ($3100) – The narratives that favor the Steelers are the Week 1 performances of the Steelers 14 points vs. the BIlls and the15 points of the Saints defense vs. the Packers. Outside of that, the Steelers had 2 points, and the Packers allowed 0 & -1 to their opponents in the last two weeks.
Browns ($3000) – No defense has topped 5 points vs. the Vikings. While the Browns landed 16 points vs. the Bears, they landed 5 points vs. the Texans and 1 point vs. the Chiefs.
Giants ($2900) – The Giants had 6 vs. the Falcons, 2 vs. the Football Team, & 4 vs. the Titans. The Saints allowed 3 to the Patriots, 12 to the Panthers, and -4 to the Packers.
Cardinals ($2800) – The Rams allowed 11 points to the Colts and 0 points to the Buccaneers and Bears. The Cardinals landed highs of 20 vs. the Jaguars & 16 to the Titans, but only 1 point vs. the Vikings. Their history vs. the Rams was 10 in their last game, but 2, 0, & 0 in their three previous.
Chiefs ($3200) – The Eagles provided the Cowboys 13 points, the 49ers 8, and the Falcons 0. While the Chiefs haven’t topped 7 points, they’ve faced the Chargers, Ravens, and Browns.
Colts ($2700) – The Colts had 4 points vs. the Seahawks, 11 vs. the Rams, and 9 vs. the Titans. Miami allowed 4 to the Raiders last week, 22 to the Bills, and 5 to the Patriots.
The Low Tier (DEF/ST)
Texans ($2000) – I’d consider them if I have a Henry lineup and don’t want to use the Jets. Their high is 7 points, and the Bills allowed 14 to the Steelers in Week 1 but handed 3 to the Dolphins and -4 to the Football Team last week.
Seahawks ($2400) – I expected to find better performances vs. the 49ers, but outside of the 18 points in Week 10 of 2019, they had 2, 9, & 5 in their last three matchups. The 49ers allowed 7 to the Packers last week and 1 to the Eagles & Lions. The Seahawks D had 6, 4, & 0 vs. the Colts, Titans, & Vikings.
Falcons ($2300) – The Falcons D has 5, 1, & 0 vs. the Giants, Buccaneers, & Eagles. Washington allowed 7, 2, & 4 to the Bills, Giants, & Chargers.
Eagles ($2100) – The Eagles D is producing points with 8 last week vs. the Cowboys, 1 vs. the 49ers, & 10 vs. the Falcons. The Chiefs allowed 10 to the Chargers, 3 to the Ravens, & 1 to the Browns.
Vikings ($2500) – They found 12 points in Week 2 vs. the Cardinals, but only 5 vs. the Bengals and 3 vs. the Seahawks last week. The Browns only allowed a 7 point ceiling vs. the Bears and a 5 point floor vs. the Texans & Chiefs.
Lions ($2200) – The Lions haven’t topped 6 points vs. the Bears in the last two seasons. They had 7 vs. the Ravens last week, -1 vs. the Packers, and 1 vs. the 49ers. The Bears allowed 6 to the Bengals, 8 to the Rams, and 16 to the Browns last week. Was last week a fluke?
Cowboys ($2600) – The Cowboys have delivered a solid floor of 7 on the season against the Buccaneers and Chargers and 13 points vs. the Eagles last week. The Panthers allowed 3, 6, & 4 to the Texans, Saints, & Jets.
Jets ($2000) – I’ll take this discount against a Titans team that only has Henry on their offense. The Titans have allowed 9, 4, & 16 points to the Colts, Seahawks, & Cardinals. The Jets haven’t eclipsed 4 points this season.