DFS’ers, welcome to Week 3! It’s time to conquer and break down the Millionaire Maker slate on DraftKings.
While there is a lot of information here, you should constantly gain knowledge from now until Sunday morning. I monitor this link for practice results, and you should do the same:
Additionally, you can follow me on Twitter for any updates I provide there. Let’s get it!
Carson Wentz ($5700) – Questionable (DNP Wednesday or Thursday).
The current trend (it may be a fad as it is only Week 3) is that the Colts have the best matchup by the numbers. I’m not in love with Carson Wentz, but the price is fair. The reason this is important is Jacob Eason ($4000) may get the start. A stack from that game only costs a maximum of $16,000 where you are using $5333/player:
At a minimum, you can go as low as using $18,400 for four spots where you are only using $4600/player:
The stack above is a substantial reach, but if Campbell plays, it is a long-shot option. The players from this game are very affordable, especially if Eason goes:
Jonathan Taylor $6700
Michael Pittman $5500
Zach Pascal $4800
Nyheim Hines $4600
Jack Doyle $3400
Parris Campbell $3300
I don’t recommend a substantial amount of lineups, as that is a lot of unnecessary risks. With that, one unnecessary risk can provide the reward. One lineup around this game is worth the potential outcome of the low ownership and allows you to the budget to fill out the rest of your lineup with top-tier players.
Outside of stacks in this game, Nyheim Hines’ history vs. the Titans is not something I will neglect at the price tag of $4600.
While I used Campbell to show the lowest price example, I would lean toward Pascal & Pittman or Doyle (Tight Ends are a new QB’s friend). It isn’t about who I favor in this matchup, as it is more about how bad the Titans are rather than how good are the Colts. I would let the WR/TE fall to me based on the other pieces I build around them.
Andy Dalton – OUT
Justin Fields ($5200) will likely land as a high ownership favorite at $5200 with the 2nd best matchup. He’s worth the price, will have high ownership, and fading him is not recommended.
Tua Tagovailoa – OUT
Jacoby Brisset ($4900) is a pure dart throw, but I won’t neglect it. I anticipate wasting $20 with the one lineup I build for him. Having a QB that cheap and likely under 2% owned is the exact equation you hope to be the anomaly of the week. Understanding why I will play one lineup is because if (which is very unlikely) he hits, it becomes a path to a million between you and 3000 other players. Those are odds that are always worth it to me!
I look at #DFS in salary tiers. There’s a high, middle, and low. If I pay for high QB and WR, it means I have to go to my low-tier TE & WR stack. There are balanced lineups (which I primarily pursue), but that’s the way it is when you’re dealing with a budget. We can’t buy them all.
When I’m looking at QB’s, I’m also looking at the WR I’m pairing with them. Outside of rushing QBs, I always have one of their WR’s or TE’s when building.
The High Tier
Matthew Stafford ($6400) – You can only beat the Buccaneers through the air. This game is on Stafford, and my stack starts with Stafford and Woods or Kupp. Since this game will have high ownership, the contrarian plays are Higbee and Van Jefferson. I don’t recommend a dart throw at DeSean Jackson ($3000), but he may overcome his mediocre 16% snap count on the season in a game like this. If the rest of your lineup looks perfect with him in it, I can stamp it, but Van Jefferson is only $400 more and snapping 80%, so keep that in mind.
Russell Wilson ($7600) – It’s either Lockett or Metcalf. I prefer Metcalf because his price is $100 lower, but there are no secrets here.
Kyler Murray ($8300) – There will be high demand for Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Rondale Moore. My pivot to that is AJ Green. He’s snapping 81% compared to Moore at 37%. Hopkins has banged up ribs, and having Green at $4500 provides some salary relief with Murray’s high salary.
Justin Herbert ($6500) – I wanted to rank Herbert higher due to his history vs. the Chiefs, but the growing pains of this new offense are glaring. I think he still delivers, but slowing the game down and running the ball is the favorable path for the Chargers rather than pursuing a shootout. The obvious pieces to add to Herbert are Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jared Cook.
Lamar Jackson ($7800) – Lamar is Lamar. Running him naked or with his counterparts works perfectly. Marquise Brown ($5600) has quietly delivered 26.30 & 19.40 in the last two weeks. Sammy Watkins is more of a dart throw, but he’s snapping 87% and can explode against the Lions, who let DaVante Adams go for 23.10 and Deebo Samuel roll for 35.90 in Week 1. Mark Andrews is priced generously at $5000.
Tom Brady ($6800) – Brady is ranked lower due to the matchup. The previous QBs vs. the Rams were Carson Wentz and Andy Dalton, so I won’t emphasize their outcome when assessing Brady. This is me preferring the players above him versus me not liking him to produce. I think the Buccaneers utilize the running game enough to cap Brady below 30. Options to pair are Evans, Godwin, and Gronkowski. Antonio Brown is an option if he overcomes his Covid positive test. With him potentially missing the game, Scotty Miller or Tyler Johson can provide some salary relief. Since there are two of them, they may limit the upside of each other when filling the void of Brown’s 54% snap count.
Patrick Mahomes ($8200) – Ranking Mahomes last in the top-tier is tough, but his history versus the Chargers is up and down. I also think it’s a get-right game for Edwards-Helaire.
Pairing him with Hill and/or Kelce is the apparent path, but Mecole Hardman is a great pivot. He’s only priced at $3900, snapping 73% on the season, and you can see the Chiefs are working to get him going.
The Mid Tier
Outside of the top tier is where we get particular. If I’m fading…
Jameis Winston ($5600) – Don’t like the matchup.
Taylor Heinicke ($5600) – Don’t like the matchup.
Baker Mayfield ($6000) – Friendlier matchup than what it presents, but even if OJB returns, his weapons are depleted.
Derrick Carr ($5900) – His numbers are there, but I prefer the better matchups below.
Teddy Bridgewater ($5800) – He’s sound, but his ceiling isn’t usually there. I don’t think he’ll require much for this game.
Ryan Tannehill ($6200) – He hasn’t scored over 20 points vs. the Colts in the past or any games this season.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5700) – The price is friendly for his upside, but his injury is concerning enough to scratch him.
Kirk Cousins ($6300) – With Dalvin Cook sidelined through practice, I’d anticipate Kirk Cousins to carry more work vs. the Seahawks this week. Seattle is ranked worse versus RBs, but that is primarily due to Derrick Henry’s 50.70 point thrashing last week. I anticipate Cook playing and, assuming he completes the game, delivering a solid floor. With that, Cousins should maintain his floor of 25.04 and 25.26 that he’s delivered in the last two weeks. It feels like a Justin Jefferson game. His salary has fallen from $7700 in Week 1 to $7200 this week. Adam Thielen always wrecks a slate and is available at a lower $6700 salary. A contrarian pivot is to roll with KJ Osborn ($3500). He’s delivered 14.60 & 20.10 points respectively in Weeks 1 & 2 on 69.85% of the snaps.
Daniel Jones ($5800) – It seems challenging to roll with Daniel Jones, but his 22.38 & 29.46 points in Weeks 1 and 2 against two solid defenses in the Broncos and Washington Football Team is part of the equation. The remaining piece is the Falcons. They’ve allowed 30.64 points and 28.76 in their two matchups this season, which lands them as the 29th worst team vs. QBs. With Kenny Golladay ($5600) on the injury report, he looks to have low ownership with upside. It’s a risky play, but it is the perfect get-right game to take a risk. He practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday. Sterling Shepard ($5900) is the easier paring if you don’t want to roll those dice. If Golladay doesn’t go, that lands Darius Slayton ($4600) as an option. Evan Engram ($3600) delivered limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday, but it may be a week too early if he returns. I’d assume the Giants would maintain Kyle Rudolph($3000) as their primary Tight End and bring Engram along.
The Low Tier
Our remaining tier lands with the backups outlined in the injury breakdown above. I won’t neglect them, and neither should you. I understand if you don’t want to take the Brissett risk, but Fields (due to his ability) and Eason (due to his matchup) are worth the risk. Outside of that, if I’m fading…
Zack Wilson ($5000) – Bad matchup along with bad QB play.
Mac Jones ($5100) – Bad matchup along with bad QB play.
Jared Goff ($5200) – Garbage time counts.
Joe Burrow ($5500) – This game is challenging to predict, but both teams are playing solid defense, and it’s an in-division game that doesn’t present as a shootout. This season is still early, so it’s not a horrible price to take a shot, but I’d take Lawrence at that price instead.
Matt Ryan ($5400) – Ryan will blow up sometime this year. At his $5400 salary, the Giants may be the spot. They allowed 20.46 points to Bridgewater in Week 1 and 24.04 vs. Taylor Heinicke in Week 2. Ryan dudded in Week 1 but came back to normalcy in Week 2 while dropping in salary from $6000 to his current price of $5400. Calvin Ridley is doing the same. He’s down from $7900 in Week 1 to $7000 this week. Previous ownership is frustrated, and the eruption is coming. McLauren delivered last week with 30.70 points on TNF. Being early for that is always better than being late. Pitts is priced reasonably at $4900.
Trevor Lawrence ($5500) – The script spells shootout, garbage time, or the Cardinals dominating. I like one of the two earlier options to occur. At $4900, Marvin Jones is still underpriced. His counterparts, Shenault and Chark, are also welcomed at their $4400 and $5300 price tags.
Quarterbacks and their stacks are different monsters than the rest of the positions. It should always be the base of what you’re building when approaching tournaments. As for the rest of the slate, they come singularly and in stacks.
The High Tier
The high-priced tier ends with Ekeler with Jonathan Taylor priced $500 lower at $6700. The eruption is available for all of them, so while we don’t want to fade them, the fork-in-the-road will arrive.
Nick Chubb ($7600) and Alvin Kamara ($8200) should receive a ton of work because their teams need help with injuries or the lack of talent around them. I also think those defenses are aware of that to limit the ceiling we are after. I won’t advise you not to play them, but it will land with Ekeler, Henry, and Cook if I’m paying up.
Dalvin Cook – ($8400) – I know Cook is injured and monitor it, but they’ve stated he’s playing already. They are resting him for his usual workload, and I like the opportunity because his ownership will be low because of it.
Austin Ekeler ($7200) – Ekeler’s floor vs. the Chiefs is too solid to ignore.
Derrick Henry’s ($8600) – The same scenario with Ekeler. This offense starts with Henry:
The Mid Tier
Alexander Mattison ($6000) is here if Cook doesn’t play, so if so, he’s in play.
Antonio Gibson ($5900) – tough to do and did practice in full, but the Bills defense is delivering vs. the run.
Josh Jacobs ($6200) – Not even if he plays.
Joe Mixon ($6300) – Bad matchup.
David Montgomery ($6100) – Bad matchup.
Darrell Henderson ($5900) – He hasn’t practiced and is unlikely to play. Even if he does, the matchup is brutal. Don’t let the green 27 next to his name fool you. While the Buccaneers are ranked 22nd worst vs. RB, by my account, that is due to the 23.90 points from Cordarrelle Patterson last week.
D’Andre Swift ($5800) – The offense runs through him and Hock, but I prefer the In-Plays below.
Jonathan Taylor ($6700) – He’s down from $8000 in Week 1 to $6700 in Week 2. He’s averaging 50% of the snaps, which is not ideal. The matchup and price tag are solid enough for some lineups. The Colts will lean on their Running Backs this week.
Saquon Barkley ($6500) – Barkley snapped 84% last week, and the matchup is phenomenal. Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 29.60 points in Week 1, and Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Gio Bernard combined for 19.80 in Week 2. His two previous matchups were vs. formidable defenses, and he was working his way back. This week is not the week to regret a full-time workload from Barkley at $6500.
Chris Carson ($6400) and Najee Harris ($6600) have safe matchups, and their snap count and workload are too solid to ignore. Carson is snapping at 70% on the season, and Harris is snapping at 97%.
Ty’son Williams ($5800) – I think he continues in a plus matchup, but his ceiling feels limited due to the other RBs and his 50% snap count.
The Low Tier
Anyone not listed.
Myles Gaskin ($5400) – If Tua were playing, he’d be on the In-Play list. He is snapping 57% on the season, delivered 33.90 points vs. them last year, and Ty’son Williams and Najee Harris delivered 18.40 and 19.10 vs. the Raiders in their respective weeks.
Chase Edmonds ($5700) – His price has jumped from $4600 in Week 1. The current price is a little high, but at least the floor is still there.
JD McKissic ($5200) – He can be a PPR monster, but I’d prefer sub $5000 to the others on the slate.
Mike Davis ($5100) & Cordarrelle Patterson ($4600) – There’s an opportunity here, but the problem is the 33% back is outscoring the 69% back.
Leonard Fournette ($5000), Ronald Jones ($4800), & Gio Bernard ($4200) – The price is too good where there should be production. I’m leaning Fournette today, but if one of them falls to you in a solid lineup, they are worth a shot. Fournette is snapping 56%, Jones 25%, and Bernard 17% on the season.
Sony Michel ($4900) – He’s only here if Henderson doesn’t play. The matchup is horrific for RBs, but a full workload at that price is not something to ignore.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4800) – DFS is about exploiting value. Pricing the Chiefs starting RB at that price, no matter how poor he’s played, is not something to ignore. Elliot and Pollard just torched the Chargers for a combined 43.70 points.
Nyheim Hines ($4600) – He’s snapping 41% on the season. He’s the only reason I’m not a full-go on Taylor this week. He’s previously delivered in both games vs. the Titans, and I anticipate this offense running through the backs this week vs. a horrendous defense.
Kareem Hunt ($5600) – This feels like a Kareem Hunt game and should get a good amount of receptions with all the injuries at WR.
Kenyan Drake ($5500) – The revenge-game narrative is a real thing. He snapped 57% with Jacobs out. Suppose that continues this a great matchup vs. the 28th worst defense vs. RBs. The Dolphins have allowed the performances below:
I wrote what is above on Thursday night, and I wrote what is below on Friday night. Keep that in mind of any updates since then.
The High Tier
It’s the same as the explanation in the RB section. We can’t buy them all. The way to look at this section is who we are using in addition to our stacks. If I can afford any of these players, I will play them, but we know we can’t play them all. Below is how I plan to use them when I pay up.
Tyreek Hill ($8400) – His history vs. the Chargers lands with 21.80 in 2020 and 10.10 in 2019. He can always go off, but he needs 33.60 points to pay for that price tag.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8200) – His history vs. the Jaguars isn’t a good assessment. He has a ton of it while with the Texans, but outside of 1 game, they all involved matchups vs. Jalen Ramsey. The one without Ramsey, Hopkins accumulated 19.40 points. While his injury is of concern, he feels safe, but with that and the price, he’s a fade option due to the limited ceiling.
Tyler Lockett ($7400) & DK Metcalf ($7300) – The problem isn’t either of them. It is about picking the right one. This matchup looks solid for Russ to keep cooking. Based on the scoring of the previous opponents, the trend predicts Lockett to keep going. Similar WRs in Rondale Moore and JaMarr Chase went off for 27.40 & 23.90, while DeAndre Hopkins and Tee Higgins went for 15.40 & 15.80.
Calvin Ridley ($7000) – I haven’t used him outside of a few Matt Ryan stacks last week. It is time to buy Calvin Ridley. Last week was a solid spot, and he delivered a solid floor of 19.30 points. Now, he is down -900 from Week 1. The last time Ridley was priced below $7000 was in Week 2 of last season.
Stefon Diggs ($7600) – Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton (with a dropped TD) delivered 17.50 and 14.40 last week. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen delivered 22.20 and 22.00 in Week 1. This will continue with Diggs as Washinton’s weakness is through the air.
Justin Jefferson ($7200) – Thielen can always be the benefactor of what looks like a Kirk Cousin game, but Jefferson dropped $500 since Week 1. After a floor of 12.54 & 18.50 in the last two weeks, it’s a solid matchup to continue that climb.
The Mid Tier
Terry McLaurin ($6900) – Buffalo hasn’t allowed a WR over 15 points this season. Tre’Davious White.
Adam Thielen ($6700) – I lean more to fading him than playing him. Thielen has delivered a floor to this point, but he has a lot of boom or bust performances that I don’t like at this price. I expect a solid floor when plugging in a WR at $6700. My history with utilizing him when he breaks out is very low, so maybe you can benefit from my lack of motivation to employ him.
AJ Brown & Julio Jones ($6500) – Both are the same price which will cut down the ownership. The Colts have allowed Kupp and Lockett to explode with 39.80 & 29.00 points. One or both of them should get there, but guessing is not part of my strategy. AJ’s history vs. the Colts is horrendous except for his last game at 25.80 points. The three previous games in the previous two seasons resulted in 3.10, 7.50, & 5.50 points. I anticipate a fade, as I prefer Keenan Allen at $100 more or Mike Williams at $100 less. I predict that many others will have a similar approach, so the contrarian pivot to either of them is an opportunistic play.
Mike Evans ($6300) & Chris Godwin ($6100) – Each week is a new week, so while I successfully utilized Mike Evans in Week 2, it felt glaring of his outcome. He dudded in Week 1 while everyone else thrived, and now it was his turn. This week is not the same as last, as the Rams defense is better than the Falcons. There will be opportunities here, and it helps with the likelihood that Antonio Brown doesn’t play, but it is still a guessing game between the two.
Allen Robinson ($6200) – I’m torn. Will Justin Fields make him better, or will it take some time? I anticipate utilizing the pieces in the next tier over him because of the price, but he’s not someone to fade in this tier. He’s the primary weapon and just landed a better quarterback. I’m going to have to find some balance with getting him in play this week.
Cooper Kupp ($6800) – Kupp’s price has soared $1900 from Week 1. He’ll continue to perform, but his heftier price will limit builds to reap the benefits. The trend is there, and while I hate to chase, the Buccaneers are 31st ranked vs. WRs.
Keenan Allen ($6600) – He has a solid history vs. the Chiefs averaging 20.30 points in the last two seasons. While the offense is different from this current playbook, he’s delivered 22.00 & 17.80 points, but his salary is down to $6600. He’s a buy at that price every time.
Mike Williams ($6400) – His salary keeps gaining, and his floor remains at 22.10 from last week and his delivery of 22.20 in Week 2. I’ll likely chase Allen more this week, but I’ll gladly accept Willams if I fall $200 short.
The Low Tier
Anyone not listed.
Kenny Golladay ($5600) – The Falcons got Mike Evans right, and they can do the same for Golladay. I understand his limited practices and new injury are concerning, but this is the exact risk I seek out. If he’s playing, he can end up sidelined, but he won’t play if it is severe enough. I’m not reading anything that communicates like he won’t go. He’s only in this section vs. the In-Play section because of his injury. If he goes, I’m buying. The squeaky wheel gets the grease. If he doesn’t play, Darius Slayton ($4600) is in play.
Marquise Brown ($5600) & Sammy Watkins ($5500) – The Lions allowed Deebo to go nuts with 35.90 points in Week 1 and Adams to hit 23.10 points in Week 2. There are a few places for the Ravens to benefit from this matchup, but Brown has delivered 19.40 points in Week 1 and 26.30 points in Week 2. He’s on the injury report and DNP on Thursday but did practice on a limited basis on Wednesday and Friday. If he goes, I like the opportunity. If he doesn’t, I like Watkins to step up.
Odell Beckham ($5300) – He’s finally coming off of injury. I usually like to exploit those opportunities, especially with Jarvis Landry out. With that, I feel they take some time with him and limit his snaps. That is my prediction, and I could not find any sources that confirmed one way or the other. He’s worth a shot if you want to take it, but I don’t anticipate much usage, if any. Maybe one lineup. Lol
Braxton Berrios ($3900) – Last year, he delivered when Crowder didn’t play. Crowder is doubtful. He’s delivered 10.10 & 14.30 points in his last two games. His price allows for a lot of the budget spent elsewhere. His floor is solid, but his ceiling is the concern.
KJ Osborn ($3500) – 14.60 and 20.10 points so far this season. The matchup vs. the Seahawks presents an opportunity for his 69.85% snap count.
Van Jefferson ($3400) – I prefer Osborn to Jefferson, but he is snapping more at 80.35%. Being on the field creates more opportunity, and the matchup spells fantasy points. His production was 16.00 & 2.40 in Weeks 1 & 2. With points funneling to Kupp, the Bucs defense may focus on forcing the ball elsewhere. I’m not chasing him, but a solid lineup with him as the risk piece is worth it.
Parris Campbell ($3300) – Solid salary relief in a plus matchup vs. the Titans. I don’t anticipate any usage on my part outside of an Eason lineup, but you never know.
Sterling Shepard ($5900) – I’ll be chasing Golladay for $300 less, but I understand if you aren’t after that injury risk. His floor was 17.50 in Week 2, and he topped that with 27.30 in Week 1. The Falcons will let the Giants eat with their 21st ranked defense vs. WR.
Robert Woods ($5700) – Cooper Kupp keeps eating. When will it be Bobby Trees’ turn? This week is a good one to pivot. His price is friendly, the matchup provides the opportunity, and in the last two games vs. the Bucs, Woods smashed with 33.60 in 2020 and 32.40 in 2019.
Marvin Jones ($4900) – I’m not sure what it will require to boost his salary, but I’ve used him in Weeks 1 & 2 and will continue in Week 3. He’s delivered 18.70 & 17.50 points this season. Whether the matchup vs. the Cardinals becomes a shootout or garbage time, the opportunities will continue. He’s the 10th highest targeted WR in the league.
The High Tier
Travis Kelce ($8200) & Darren Waller ($7400) – I have no data to support or not support playing either of them. They are always in play, but the prices are lofty. Keep in mind to support playing Kelce at that price, you need a floor of 32.80, and for Waller, it is 29.60 points.
The Mid Tier
Noah Fant ($4800) – His price is too high for where I like him and this matchup. Albert Okwuegbunam is snapping 50%, which limits Fant’s RedZone opportunities.
Logan Thomas ($4700) – This is a better spot for him as the secondary should funnel targets inside, but I don’t like his price enough for the opportunity. He’s snapped 100% on the season, so if you want him, please feel free to pull the trigger, but very unlikely, he lands in my lineups this week.
Jonnu Smith ($4100) – A friendlier price to consider, but the matchup is crap, and Mac Jones has some more growing pains to go through.
Kyle Pitts ($4900) – He’s in play and a solid matchup. I’ll utilize him, but I like going toward Andrews and Hockenson. That’s why he’s listed here. Entrants will continue to pivot off of him and miss that big game that you can capitalize on.
Rob Gronkowski ($5500) – Last week continued the success of Week 1’s Thursday smash. There’s no reason for him to slow down. He’s snapping 84% on the season, and the matchup presents favorably. Jack Doyle and Cole Kmet had upticks in production vs. the Rams. In Week 1, Doyle dudded at 5.10 vs. the Seahawks but improved to 13.40 vs. the Rams. Kmet provided 9.20 vs. the Rams in Week 1 and came back with 1.00 point in Week 2 vs. the Bengals. There are many other variables to those outcomes, but it is inside if there is a weakness on the Rams defense.
TJ Hockenson ($5200) – He’s playing the worst team vs. TEs and is the number 1 WR on his team. The only thing I’ll share to consider not playing Hock is why the Ravens are the worst team against TEs. They faced Darren Waller in Week 1 and Travis Kelce in Week 2.
Mark Andrews ($5000) – This game smells of a Mark Andrews eruption. He’s down 900 from last week and in a plus matchup where Tonyan hit for 14.20 last week.
Tyler Higbee ($4000) – I love the price and the opportunity. He’s snapped 100% of the snaps. Pitts delivered 12.30 points against them last week. That isn’t a high sell, but I like going here because of the price and not having anyone I love in the tier below.
The Low Tier
Anyone not listed.
Jared Cook ($3900) – His usage and the presence of Donald Parham present challenges. The matchup is there, but the ceiling doesn’t feel like it exists. With Higbee $100 more, I don’t foresee him landing in my lineups, but it is still a reasonable price for him.
Juwan Johnson ($3300) – On the DraftKings slate, Johnson was listed at WR in Week 1. In Week 2, he was changed to TE and remains listed as that today. His snap count went from 19% in Week 1 to 40% in Week 2. He could be a sneaky play if he gains a similar uptick in snaps in Week 3.
Albert Okwuegbunam ($3000) – I’m too much of a truther, but I love his dominance. His RedZone upside provides a nice dart throw in the right lineup. He’s averaging 54% of the snaps on the season, but most of those snaps are as a receiver.
Gerald Everett ($3000) – Finding low-tier TEs is difficult. Max Williams delivered 16.40 points vs. the Vikings last week. If he can do it, so could Everett. He’s snapping 76% on the season.
No one at this time.
Disclaimer: Defenses are a dime a dozen. The scoring on DraftKings doesn’t allow for any strategic approach that is significant. While points against, sacks, and turnovers are factors, the points aren’t impactful enough from those stats. It always feels like the only benefit from a defense is a KR, PR, or turnover for a TD. With that, don’t put too much pressure on obtaining a defense. I primarily utilize a High, Mid, & Low Tier Defense for my lineups. It doesn’t always fall perfectly, and in some cases, I’ll just accept what lands for me. I have strong preferences, but I won’t sacrifice the other pieces for the defense if I don’t like it. With that, if some data can help steer us, I will provide it.
The High Tier
Rams ($3500) – Top defense, but I’m not betting against Brady.
Buccaneers ($3700) – I won’t likely pay up for them, but the Colts landed 11 points last week.
Patriots ($4100) – If I can fit them, I’d play them, but I’m not going out of my way when the options below making things easier.
Giants ($3300) – Falcons are giving up the most points to defenses.
Raiders ($3400) – Miami gave up 22 points to the Bills last week, and they are starting their backup QB.
Ravens ($3600) – The numbers aren’t as good as it looks, but the Ravens should eat.
Bills ($3800) – I’ve used them pretty heavily for the last two weeks. In Week 1, they started strong but only ended with 2 points. In Week 2, they landed 22 points. The Football Team is a favorable matchup for them, but the price is likely too high to consistently land them.
Steelers ($3900) – The Bears delivered 19 points vs. the Bengals last week, and the Steelers have a solid history vs. them.
Broncos ($4300) – We obviously want this piece, but the price is hefty. If you get lucky enough, the Broncos should continue the trend of the 19 points the Patriots landed in Week 2 and the 9 points the Panthers landed in Week 1.
The Mid Tier
Dolphins ($2700) – Two top defense in the Ravens and Steelers dudded with 4 & 2 points. Maybe the Dolphins surprise, but I won’t own them.
Seahawks ($2800) – 6 & 4 points this season, and the Vikings provided 5 & 1 points to their opponents.
Bears ($3000) – They did have 19 points last week vs. the Bengals, but I prefer the Cardinals at the same price or the Saints for $100 more.
Browns ($3200) – Good defense and good game script, but I’d play the Cardinals and Saints over them at a lesser price.
Chiefs ($3100) – With the Saints at the same price, I don’t foresee taking them over them. Maybe if I have a Saints or Patriots player in my lineup, but I don’t anticipate that either. LOL While I won’t use them, perhaps you will. Their production was crap in 2020 but solid in 2019 vs. the Chargers.
Colts ($2700) – The Chandler Jones game that created 16 points came against the Titans in Week 1. The Seahawks followed up with 4 points. I’m leaning toward fading them vs. playing them, but I’ll take a shot if I love the lineup.
Cardinals ($3000) – They should be highly owned. The Broncos delivered 9 points in Week 2, and the Texans landed 7 points in Week 1. They should eat.
Saints ($3100) – This is why data exists. We know that the Patriots are a plus matchup, but the red 8 next to the Saints may scare you into thinking otherwise. The Patriots have not surrendered many points to defenses thus far, but that is because they faced the Dolphins in Week 1 and the Jets in Week 2. The Saints are a top defense and should make some noise vs. the shaky Mac Jones.
The Low Tier
Lions ($2000) – Many players take the low defense, but I’m not usually one of them. The Ravens provided the Raiders and Chiefs 7 points. So, not crazy since there is consistency, but I won’t use them. If I take a shot at this price, it will be the Jaguars.
Bengals ($2100) – Division matchups are usually in consideration, but finding the information on the Jaguars below is where I’d go before this selection. Over the last two seasons, their history is crap and the same as this season, with 5 and 6 points in the first two weeks.
Jets ($2200) – 3 & 4 points in their first two games, and while the Broncos did allow 9 points from the jaguars, I don’t see it happening here.
Chargers ($2300) – 5 & 4 points to start the season, and they haven’t topped 5 points vs. the Chiefs in the last two years.
Falcons ($2500) – 1 & 0 points to start the season, and two better defenses only scored 3 (WAS) & 8 (DEN) points vs. the Giants.
Jaguars ($2000) – I don’t plan on using them, but if I have the perfect lineup, I’d semi-consider it. That is because the Vikings delivered 12 points vs. the Cardinals in Week 2, and the Jaguars delivered 9 points vs. the Broncos in Week 2. I didn’t anticipate finding some positives, so like I stated, I’m semi-considering using them since the price is so low.
Titans ($2400) – I’ve roasted how bad their defense is to start this article, but whether Wentz or Eason starts, this is a favorable matchup for this defense too. The Colts surrendered 8 points to the Rams and 6 points to the 6 Seahawks. At this price, I’d be satisfied with the outcome of 3 of 4 of their last games over the previous two seasons.
Football Team ($2600) – Washington has not looked as dominant as anticipated in their first two games. The Bills are a better matchup than the Chargers and Giants that Washington only delivered 5 & 3 points. This is more of a price point play rather than anything that seems probable. The Steelers had 14 points vs. the Bills in Week 1, so there is that positive outcome.
I apologize for any clerical or grammatical errors, as I’m a one-person show. I’ll improve my process and allow better time for editing in the future. Hopefully, any assumed errors didn’t distract from the goals of the content.
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