Price Tier 1
McCaffrey(9.5) vs. NYJ
The Jets were 13th worst against the run last season. They only gave up three 20+ points games to RBs in 2020, though. CMC is never a m/u concern, except vs. the Buccaneers.
PP$ Mark: 47.5 points
Cook(9.1) vs. CIN
Cincy was 10th worst vs. the run last season. The Bengals ended the season by giving up two straight weeks of 30+ point games by RBs. Outside of that, they gave up three 20+ point RB performances, and two of them were in the same game vs. CLE.
PP$ Mark: 45.5 points
Henry(8.8) vs. ARI
The Cardinals were 16th best vs. the run last season. They provided three 20+ point games to RBs in 2020. Two of those games were vs. the 49ers (Mostert & Wilson).
PP$ Mark: 44 points
Kamara(8.6) vs. GB
The Packers were 5th worst vs. the run last season. Kamara ate for 47.7 points against them in Week 3 last season.
PP$ Mark: 43 points
With Brees gone, the Saints could go heavy with the run. This is a plus match-up for him, if so.
PP$ Mark: 21.5 points
Taylor(8.0) vs. SEA
Seattle was 15th worst vs. the run last season but only gave up three 20+ point games vs. RBs in 2020.
PP$ Mark: 40 points
PP$ Mark: 25 points
Barkley(7.8) vs. DEN
Barkley starts the season on the PUP list and may be limited to start the season. Something to keep an eye on, as entrants will avoid him. The Broncos were 12th worst vs. the run last season. They gave up six 20+ point games vs. RBs in 2020.
PP$ Mark: 39 points
If Barkley is out, do we get the revenge game?
PP$ Mark: 20 points
Chubb(7.2) vs. KC
KC was 14th best vs. the run last season. They only gave up two 20+ point games to RBs last season. If the Browns can control the game, it allows Chubb to get the work. Most of KC’s run defense likely comes from teams having to play catch up to their potent offense.
PP$ Mark: 36 points
Hunt is always in play.
PP$ Mark: 27.5 points
Ekeler(7.0) vs. WAS
Washington was 2nd best vs. the run last season. They did allow three 20+ point games from RBs in 2020. Outside of that, every RB scored 14.7 points or less. Ekeler’s receiving ability is the way to overcome those numbers since you aren’t going through the heart of the defense.
PP$ Mark: 35 points
Price Tier 2
Swift(6.9) vs. SF
The 49ers were 4th best vs. the run last season. They allowed four 20+ point games vs. RBs last season.
PP$ Mark: 34.5 points
Jones(6.8) vs. NO
The Saints were the best vs. the run last season. Jones had 16.60 points vs. them in Week 3 of 2020, which was the 2nd highest points in a game vs. the Saints last season (M. Sanders had 32.60 in Week 14).
PP$ Mark: 34 points
The Browns were the 8th best vs. the run last season. They allowed four 20+ point games to RBs in 2020.
PP$ Mark: 33 points
Sanders(6.5) vs. ATL
The Falcons finished 7th best vs. the run last season. In the first five weeks, they were the worst against the run sacrificing 29.5 points per game. The rest of the way, they only let up two 20+ point games to RBs. Two questions need to be answered, which defense shows up and will Sanders handle a full workload.
PP$ Mark: 32.5 points
Robinson(6.4) vs. HOU
The Texans were the worst vs. the run last season. Amazingly, Robinson only scored 15.9 & 11.0 points in the two match-ups vs. them in 2020. I credit that production more to the success of that passing game in those weeks rather than the defense. Jake Luton delivered 25.46 points in Week 9, and Gardner Minshew delivered 23.84 in Week 5.
PP$ Mark: 32 points
Like Kareem Hunt, Etienne will be strongly considered until we gain information about each RBs usage in Jacksonville.
PP$ Mark: 24.5 points
Harris(6.3) vs. BUF
The Bills were 14th worst vs. the run last season. They allowed four 20+ point games to RBs in 2020. There is zero chance I don’t play him in week 1. Don’t play the wait-anhttp://GridironGod.com/dfs/16-reasons-you-dont-win-tournaments-in-dfs/d-see game as you won’t know his usage until it is too late.
PP$ Mark: 31.5 points
Mixon(6.2) vs. MIN
The Vikings were the 6th worst vs. the run last season. The usually stout Vikings defense gave up six 20+ point games vs. RBs in 2020. Without Gio Bernard, Mixon may have a full workload each week.
PP$ Mark: 31 points
Gaskin(6.0) vs. NE
The Patriots finished 15th best vs. the run last season. They gave up five 20+point games to RBs in 2020. Gaskin played 62% of the snaps in Week 1 and only amassed 10.60 points. He was not available for their Week 15 match-up, where Salvon Ahmed went for 24.70 points.
PP$ Mark: 30 points
Price Tier 3
Carson(5.9) vs. IND
The Colts were 12th best vs. the run last season. They only allowed two 20+ point games to RBs last season.
PP$ Mark: 29.5 points
Gibson(5.9) vs. LAC
The Chargers were smack-dab in the middle of the league vs. the run last season. They gave up five 20+ point games last season to RBs. Gibson seems oddly priced for the match-up, his production last season, and his planned usage.
PP$ Mark: 29.5 points
The coaches state that Gibson’s workload will increase, but there is no reason to neglect McKissic’s PPR production until it is guaranteed.
PP$ Mark: 25.5 points
Mostert(5.8) vs. DET
Detroit was 2nd worst vs. the run last season. This is definitely a smash-spot for Mostert. The only question is the usage of the other RBs behind him.
PP$ Mark: 29 points
You have to keep a watch on it all. It’s Moster’s backfield to lose, but we know that Kyle Shanahan doesn’t give a shit. He’ll run with any of them.
PP$ Mark: 22.5 points (Sermon), 20 points (Gallman/Wilson)
G-Rating: 3.0 (Sermon, 1.0 (Gallman/Wilson)
Johnson(5.7) vs. JAX
The Jaguars were 3rd worst vs. the run last season. Johnson sadly delivered 12.30 and 1.60 points in the two match-ups vs. them in 2020. If he gets the workload, it’s a great opportunity, but it feels like there will be a ton of congestion here.
PP$ Mark: 28.5 points
If anyone disrupts DJ’s usage, I presume it would be Lindsay. Ingram(4.4) may be in the mix but also may be on the chopping block. There are also rumors of Johnson being on the cut line too. Wait for it to develop.
PP$ Mark: 23.5 points
Davis(5.4) vs. PHI
Philly was 11th best vs. the run last season. They allowed five 20+point performances vs. RBs in 2020. Davis seems the lone wolf to handle the workload in Atlanta. If he gets the snaps at this price, it won’t matter his matchup.
PP$ Mark: 27 points
Gordon(5.3) vs. NYG
The Giants were 11th worst vs. the run last season. They allowed four 20+ point games vs. RB in 2020. Oddly, most of them were on the front end of the season, and no back scored more than 23.50 points. Their stats are misleading.
PP$ Mark: 26.5 points
Nothing is signaling that Gordon will disappear, so this consideration is based on not ignoring the hype and Williams’s price. Keep an eye on how preseason develops.
PP$ Mark: 20 points
Harris(5.2) vs. MIA
Miami was 10th best vs. the run last season. No Patriots RBs scored more than 9.70 points vs. them in 2020. The Patriots are infamous for committees. There are always a few weeks during the year where it happens, but I prefer to bet on probabilities versus guessing. Keep a watch on Sony Michel(4.8) and James White(4.4).
PP$ Mark: 26 points
Rest of the Field
Coleman(4.9), Johnson(4.4), Carter(4.0) vs. CAR
Carolina was 8th worst vs. the run last season. They allowed eight 20+ point games to RBs in 2020. A committee may present itself in this backfield, but there are opportunities in Week 1. Currently, Carter is the favorite to take the lead. This is an area where you can get a significant discount if you can find the answer before kickoff. Watch and keep digging.
PP$ Mark: Coleman(24.5), Johnson(22.0), Carter(20) points
G-Rating: Coleman(3.0), Johnson(2.5), Carter(3.5)
Singletary(4.7), Moss(4.6) vs. PIT
Pittsburgh was 3rd best vs. the run last season. They allowed two 20+ point games to RBs last season. Singletary delivered 4.4 points, and Moss delivered 4.3 points in Week 14 last year. RBs don’t fare well vs. the Steelers, and especially one that looks like a 50/50 committee.
PP$ Mark: Singletary(23.5), Moss(23.0) points
G-Rating: Singletary(0.5), Moss(1.0)
Edmonds(4.6), Conner(4.5) vs. TEN
Tennessee was 7th worst vs. the run last season. They allowed seven 20+ point games to RBs last season. As a Steeler, Conner delivered 14.10 points against the Titans in Week 7 last year. The pricing for these two is extremely odd. I know Arizona is a pass-first team, but this is too low for the matchup. The problem we have is, who is the guy to buy.
PP$ Mark: Edmonds(23.0), Conner(22.5) points
G-Rating: Edmonds(3.5), Conner(3.0)