The AFC WEST of my 32 Shots & Nots breakdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Shot: Mecole Hardman
Everyone is always chasing pieces in potent offenses, but unfortunately, the prices of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill won’t be accessible for all of us. Sammy Watkins was the previous later target, but he departed to Baltimore this offseason. Now the mix of plentiful WRs is down to Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson. Hardman dented the depth chart above these other players last year and should establish him as a solid WR3/Flex on the season. Enjoy the rewards in rounds 11-12 (although he’s moving up) at WR53.
Not: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
I project the Chiefs backfield to be messy. I don’t hate CEH. He’s a solid player, but he’s being drafted too high for his likely output. RB14 doesn’t work for me. Without an injury, he will not get the complete snap percentage that analysts are projecting. Any RB in this system will do well, and I actually believe McKinnon makes the team. Darrel Williams isn’t going away, and while I’ve been a Williams truther in the past, I’ve tempered those expectations, as I think it’s a timeshare that annoys everyone. I like the late value of Williams, but not as excited as I’ve been in the past. Andy Reid hasn’t committed to an RB since Jamaal Charles. Kareem Hunt was a superior talent and an anomaly to what the Chiefs have been doing through the years.
I’m passing on CEH in round 2.
Las Vegas Raiders
Shot: John Brown
My tweet here tells most of the tale:
Injury is a concern with any player, and that held him back in 2020 by missing most of it. In the 9 games he played (some of which he departed early), he delivered 5 double-digit fantasy points. Behind Waller, John Brown fills a need that the Raiders have at WR. Enjoy the value in round 15 at WR68.
The Javonte Williams hype-train has already taken off, so I’m not going to be able to provide him as value, but if you haven’t done your research, please enjoy the highlights below:
With that, the rest of the Broncos’ offense is in line with their value, but there’s always a nice flyer everywhere, and mine is…
Shot: Albert Okwuegbunam
If Fant were to go down, Albert O would propel into a solid starter each week. Even with Fant there last season, Okwuegbunam was utilized and specifically very heavily in the RedZone. He finally gained some playing time in weeks 6-9 before he was injured for the season. His utilization percentage (target % in this case) was through the roof in weeks 6 and 7 (25% & 22.6%). He is too much of an athletic mismatch not to find his way on the field. He’ll likely sit on your waiver wire, but he is worth a stash roster spot if you’re in deeper leagues like me. If your league isn’t deep, make sure to sit him on your watch list if the opportunity can present itself.
Not: Broncos QB’s
Their value is fine, but, as stated, the value of this team is pretty in line with what you’d like to gain from their performances. Bridgewater and Lock are both going dirt late, so there is nothing wrong with the picks, but I’d identify them as un-rosterable at this point.
Los Angeles Chargers
Shot: Mike Williams
He is projecting as WR45 in the 9th round, but I’m feeling the situation that I’d easily leap a round or two earlier. With Justin Herbert, this offense will thrive. The staff is from the Saints, and they are using Williams in the Michael Thomas role. I think it translates. He’s delivered in the past with lesser talent at QB, so outside of his injury history, I have zero concern with Williams. The perfect storm is brewing with him becoming a free agent next season. WR2 seems pretty easy (or better 😉 ) in a contract year. Eat!
Not: Austin Ekeler
I think Ekeler finishes with an easy floor of RB2. RB1 is just as likely, but being projected as RB6 and pick 7 overall is too much for my liking. In no particular order I’d take the players below over him:
Travis Kelce (never in love with drafting a TE in the first round).
That puts Ekeler at RB12 for me and overall about another round later. I’m fine with drafting him in round 2, but round 1 is too rich for my blood.