Fantasy football is all about value. Here we look at the best shot ADP values to win your fantasy league, and the least liked ADP values (Nots) from each team. Most of these picks will not be your obvious picks but more beneficial for your later rounds and deeper leagues. Let’s go!
Shot: Tyler Lockett
For the last two seasons, Tyler Lockett has finished as a WR1, but still, he draws WR2 ADP. WRs in front of him such as Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Amari Cooper warrant their price tag, but if you go RB in that round and grab Lockett on the next tier, that will give you the most optimized path to a championship.
Not: Russell Wilson
We all know what he can do, but he’s not running as much as he has in the past, and his numbers tailed off at the end of the season. He finished QB4, so the numbers he amassed at the beginning of the season were ridiculous, but inconsistency is hard to overcome. I like Wilson to have a good year, but I feel more comfortable drafting Rodgers before him. Additionally, based on value, I’d prefer Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannehill, and Tom Brady a round or two later.
Los Angeles Rams
Shot: Xavier Jones
With one preseason game to the left, it currently stands as Xavier Jones is Henderson’s backup, but Jake Funk is making some noise. The rookie Funk is a downhill thumper, while Jones presents more of a well-rounded, complete back. Additionally, Jones already has a one-year headstart on Funk. Funk presents as a solid complementary back, but when I watch what Jones can do, he seems like a player that can handle a feature role and has the athleticism to thrive and win you a fantasy chip. My personal opinion is that Jones will be the guy.
Not: Jake Funk
He brings the old-style RB back to the NFL. He did look good in the pre-season, and there is the hype about him, but I do not see it translate for more than depth or specific work. He’s a solid player and will help on special teams, but Xavier Jones looks too explosive to feel that Funk will overtake his role. You never know how things can pan out, but fortunately, the Rams play their final preseason game before Draft Day on Saturday night. Pay attention, as that game could tell a lot.
San Francisco 49ers
Shot: Trey Lance
I don’t feel like this is a secret, but his value is currently QB24. I’d reach earlier with a potential league-winner when he takes the starting job in San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo is too inconsistent and will open the door for Lance to find his way on the field. While that isn’t argument enough to draft Lance, I’d compare him to a faster and stronger Andrew Luck.
Not: Raheem Mostert
He completed a full season in 2019, which landed him at RB24. Last season, he didn’t make it through. He has amazing big-play ability, but Trey Sermon behind him makes sense to serve as the feature role while Mostert plays the compliment. They are both being drafted around the same pick, and I’m picking Sermon 10 out of 10 times in that situation.
Shot: Ronadale Moore
He feels like Tyreek Hill part two. He immediately fills a void that Christian Kirk hasn’t be able to do. His value in round 14 can land him as a nice boom WR3 for your team. He’ll have some down weeks playing behind Hopkins and Green, but Murray should throw for 4000 yards which leaves plenty available for this athletic freak. I’m likely buying early to make sure I get him. Enjoy the show.
Not: Arizona RBs
Running Backs in Arizona haven’t provided much fantasy value since Kyler Murray landed there. I don’t foresee that changing going forward. Their value isn’t a deal-breaker, but why draft someone to have them. In round 5, you’d draft Edmonds, and I’d prefer the other available upside in the majority of players in that round. You’d pass on Javonte Williams, Chase Claypool, Ja’Marr Chase, Jerry Jeudy, Aaron Rodgers, and Robby Anderson for the question marks that Edmonds provides. The same goes for Conner in round 8. I prefer the upside of Shenualt, Samuel, Hines, Higbee, and Mike Williams before settling for Conner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Shot: Tampa Bay’s Running Backs
Antonio Brown would’ve been the shot, but I think he’s still on other owner’s radars enough not to make him sleeper-worthy. Analysts are down on Tampa Bay’s backfield, and it is warranted because it is crowded. The Bucs are a potent offense and reminiscent of the Patriots of the past. The Pats had crowded backfields too, but there was also value. It was just hard to predict. Whether LeGarrette Blount, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis, James White, Rex Burkhead, etc., etc., there were years that those later picks found you the RB2 or flex that you needed. In some cases, it provided an RB1. The rule I always had with the Patriots’ RBs was to take the latest value. James White helped me one season by finishing RB8 when drafted in the 11th or 12th round. There will be points here, so don’t avoid the situation. Just let the value of Ronald Jones(RB33), Leonard Fournette(RB38), and Gio Bernard(49) make their way to you. The time to draft them is when they fall below their ADP.
Not: Tampa Bay’s Running Backs
This is not me hedging my bet. This is me advising you that you are not to chase the running backs of Tampa Bay. Their value is not what you want. There is no way to predict the outcome of this backfield. Don’t be brazen and chase Ronald Jones in the 3rd round. There is more secure talent there. Just allow others to fade them, and eventually, if they do long enough, you buy them for depth.
Shot: Robby Anderson
Terrace Marshall Jr is the right late-round value to swing for, but Robby Anderson is significantly undervalued enough to make him the pick. Anderson finished as WR20 last season and has a better QB in Darnold this year. He had a history with Darnold when both were on the Jets. Everyone, including me, thought Anderson was just a deep-ball guy. Last year he showed he could deliver a floor. He delivered WR1 numbers throughout the start of the season and surrendered a little of those expectations as the year went along. He still delivered, though. He’s likely available at the 5th-6th round turn as a WR3 which is phenomenal value for his upside.
Not: Christian McCaffrey
CMC should be pick 1 or 2 in your draft. Since he’s ranked number 1, and I’m predicting Dalvin Cook as RB1 this year, that is my suggestion not to take him first overall.
New Orleans Saints
Shot: Latavius Murray
We all saw the preseason explosion of Marquez Callaway, so please take your shot in that direction if the price doesn’t soar too much. My goal isn’t to predict what everyone just saw. It is to provide additional value to what is already known. Murray has always been a solid RB. The Saints never overwork Alvin Kamara. He’s always around 50% snap count on the season. With Drew Brees gone, I strongly feel the Saints focus on defense and the running attack. Murray would strongly benefit if that were the path, which is more likely than not. At RB48 in the 11th round, he will likely deliver a flex-worthy floor for the season.
Not: Michael Thomas
Even in round 9 at WR46, I am passing on Thomas. He’ll have to sail a lot further down for me to take that leap. Too many changes, too many injuries, and too much drama. Not interested in figuring out all this bs. Pass.
Shot: Kyle Pitts
At first glance, you say, “How is that a shot?” But it is. If you’ve done fantasy as long as I have, you’ll understand that taking a rookie TE in the 4th round is a challenge. It’s easy to say he’s going to be great. In his first year, though, it is probable hazardous for that value to pan out. I’m on the side of saying it will work. To make that pick, you have to understand he will have to break records for you to be right—swing for the fence.
Not: Mike Davis
Matt Ryan has never been the king of check downs, so I do not see his value over the players behind him without a ton of receptions. I prefer Myles Gaskin, the upside of Javonte Williams, and an abundant amount of talent in the receiving department (namely the shot above) than Davis. I think Qadree Ollison is present enough and I’m sure Cordarrelle Patterson will be in the mix enough to limit his upside, as he does everywhere he goes.
Shot: Justin Fields
If you follow me on Twitter, you are aware of my disdain for Matt Nagy. Today, we get to thank him for setting Andy Dalton as the starter to create QB21 value for Justin Fields. Picture Cam Newton, but accurate. That is fantasy gold. Have him on your bench when he takes the job.
Not: Cole Kmet
His value is fine at TE18, but experts keep prematurely hyping him along. TE’s take a while to develop. Jimmy Graham is still there. It will take some time before this show ever arrives, if ever. Don’t waste the roster space chasing the lies.
Green Bay Packers
Shot: AJ Dillon
This one is too easy. In round 9, draft AJ Dillon. With Jamal Williams gone, I see Aaron Jones filling that role and some of his previous work, but Dillon should easily get a lot of early-down work and goalline work. While he’s massive, he can catch, so don’t feel he is eliminated from the potent passing game. If Aaron Jones was injured, AJ Dillon will land in the top12 and be a league-winner.
I love all the value here, so using Marquez-Valdes-Scantling as a scapegoat wouldn’t be fair. Aaron Rodgers produces a potent offense. Based on the ADPs, any pieces you can buy can provide nice bye week fill-ins or surprise depth. Allen Lazard>Randall Cobb (today).
Shot: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Detroit’s WRs are all going around the same value of WR74 – WR80. A lot of analysts are promoting Breshard Perriman and Tyrell Williams shortly after. They are both great value in an offense that should be passing a lot. I prefer to take the risk on the 4th round rookie, St. Brown. He has the it factor. Nothing is scorching about his pre-draft numbers, and he’s undersized, but if you watch his highlights, he’s always making plays. While he provides some separation, I like most that he’s always making the contested highlight catch in traffic.
Not: Jamaal Williams
His value isn’t an issue, and he’s not a bad player either. I tend to think if we couldn’t utilize him in the Packers offense with Aaron Rodgers, what value does he provide with the Lions. He’s going RB40 in round 9. It may seem like a time to get a safe floor, but I’d prefer to take my chance with AJ Dillion, Marvin Jones, or Mike Gesicki in that round. Think of it this way. Even if DeAndre Swift was injured, what real value would you receive in that optimal situation? Pass.
Shot: Irv Smith Jr.
Update: Irv Smith is likely out for the season.
I’m an Irv Smith truther. I’ve been awaiting the departure of Kyle Rudolph, and here we are. Somehow the rest of the fantasy world doesn’t seem to agree. I love his value at TE13. I had a nice difference of opinion with Wyatt on Twitter which can provide both sides of the argument. You choose…
Not: Alexander Mattison
My last few years would’ve been Adam Thielen. I used to argue until I was blue in the face about owners drafting him as their WR1. Fortunately, Justin Jefferson came along and moved Thielen to a fair value this year. I know I expressed picking AJ Dillon in the later rounds and what that could do for your team due to injury, but AJ Dillon will actually have a role this year. Mattison only has value if Dalvin Cook is injured. Handcuffing Dalvin Cook isn’t a bad move if you roster Cook, but to buy Mattison without that is likely clogging your roster space with someone that can’t help you if that occurs. Even the late value of the 12th round has other players that can provide answers without waiting for an injury. I’d pass on Mattison and let Cook owners sacrifice that pick in their draft.
Shot: Kenneth Gainwell
Miles Sanders is finally being drafted accurately as he is not an RB1. While he isn’t the handcuff to Sanders, Kenny Gainwell will find his way on the field. Do you like Antonio Gibson? Gainwell is just that. He’s a WR playing RB and can be an RB playing WR. This team needs help on offense. In the 15th round, he’s an upside play that could make a splash. Always bet on talent.
Not: Dallas Goedert
Please don’t get mad at me. Get mad at Zach Ertz. Or the Eagles. Or the rest of the league for not trading for Ertz. I love Goedert and do think he will become a top TE one day. Unfortunately, I don’t think this season sets him apart because Ertz is still good enough to dent his value. He was ranked a lot higher earlier this summer with the hope of Ertz departing, but even at TE9, that is not working for me. I’m drafting TE’s 10-13 (Tonyan, Higbee, Gesicki, and Irv Smith) in front of him. Those TE’s are all the solo TE for their team, and I’d rather take those shots later than Goedert one or two rounds earlier.
Shot: Dak Prescott
I was burned by Michael Gallup last season, so his value is there, but I can’t recommend it. Dak, though, is down-trending with injury concerns. With risk comes opportunity. His projected draft round is round 5 and at QB5. While I don’t mind waiting to pick QB’s later in drafts, I also see the upside here. By the fifth round, you should have the core of your team. While others have jumped for Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Jackson, picking Dak after them may be the perfect situation to land you with a top 5 QB without sacrificing your counterparts in the earlier rounds.
Not: Ezekiel Elliot
This pick is more to not having a true bust value available on this team. Zeke is a first-round value and very likely provides you the same return. My argument would be that I’d prefer Henry, Barkley (I understand his injury concerns, but I’m not concerned), Hill, Diggs, and Hopkins over him. The reason outside of Barkley’s injury is that you know what you are getting from these players. Zeke requires a healthy offensive line, healthy QB, blah, blah, blah. My first-round pick should only require their own health to produce. Additionally, Tony Pollard is too good, and he isn’t going away.
Washington Football Team
Shot: Washington Football Team Defense
Defenses are part of the game, and while I’d love to suggest Curtis Samuel or JD McKissic (both of which provide value), I honestly think their defense is the right answer. Each year there is one defense we wish we all drafted. While streaming is effective, it is always nice to have a plug-and-play defense. They are good enough to overcome any matchup to provide the sacks and points you want from your defense. They play in a weak division, and they are the up-and-coming defense that everyone hasn’t figured out yet. When the trend of DEF1 – DEF4 starts, feel happy to pull the trigger at DEF5 with the WFT.
Not: Ryan Fitzpatrick
I like the rest of the value for the Football Team. I love having Ryan Fitzpatrick for fantasy. While I plan on drafting him at his phenomenal value and recommend that you do the same, the reason I am listing him here is that QB’s are undervalued across the board. A lot of owners believe they can get away with anyone. Ron Rivera plans to play defense and safe football. Fitzpatrick does not always deliver safety with his gun-slinging fantasy fanatics. Due to that, he may not even win the starting job. Don’t be the owner that thinks you’re getting easy fantasy points of the past to plug in your draft each week. Draft him as your backup or even 3rd QB, but don’t be the guy that drafts Fitz-magic in your last round as your QB1. It won’t work this season.
New York Giants
Shot: Saquon Barkley
Don’t fear injury. He will be back, and he will be the Saquon of old. Be the guy that drafts Saquon at RB8 at the tail-end of your draft and enjoy the Top-3 RB you will receive from him. I’d love to inflate things further, but it is a simple debate of injury concern, and I’m the type that takes the high risk to gain the high reward. Jump!…or don’t. I will.
Not: Kenny Golladay
It pains me to write this as he is my long-term Keeper in my home league. His health is always concerning. His value is reflecting that, so he’s not a horrendous pick in round 6. The move from Detroit and Stafford is a downgrade to his new path in New York with Daniel Jones. Outside of Marvin Jones in Detroit, Golladay was basically the lone target monster. In New York, it is crowded with Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram. The G-men also have a good defense brewing, which will limit the need for shootouts. Fortunately, his value is projecting him at WR25. Being on the WR2-3 cusp can work. Getting him as your WR3 is satisfying, but WR2, not so much.
The AFC WEST of my 32 Shots & Nots breakdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Shot: Mecole Hardman
Everyone is always chasing pieces in potent offenses, but unfortunately, the prices of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill won’t be accessible for all of us. Sammy Watkins was the previous later target, but he departed to Baltimore this offseason. Now the mix of plentiful WRs is down to Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson. Hardman dented the depth chart above these other players last year and should establish him as a solid WR3/Flex on the season. Enjoy the rewards in rounds 11-12 (although he’s moving up) at WR53.
Not: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
I project the Chiefs backfield to be messy. I don’t hate CEH. He’s a solid player, but he’s being drafted too high for his likely output. RB14 doesn’t work for me. Without an injury, he will not get the complete snap percentage that analysts are projecting. Any RB in this system will do well, and I actually believe McKinnon makes the team. Darrel Williams isn’t going away, and while I’ve been a Williams truther in the past, I’ve tempered those expectations, as I think it’s a timeshare that annoys everyone. I like the late value of Williams, but not as excited as I’ve been in the past. Andy Reid hasn’t committed to an RB since Jamaal Charles. Kareem Hunt was a superior talent and an anomaly to what the Chiefs have been doing through the years.
I’m passing on CEH in round 2.
Las Vegas Raiders
Shot: John Brown
My tweet here tells most of the tale:
Injury is a concern with any player, and that held him back in 2020 by missing most of it. In the 9 games he played (some of which he departed early), he delivered 5 double-digit fantasy points. Behind Waller, John Brown fills a need that the Raiders have at WR. Enjoy the value in round 15 at WR68.
The Javonte Williams hype-train has already taken off, so I’m not going to be able to provide him as value, but if you haven’t done your research, please enjoy the highlights below:
With that, the rest of the Broncos’ offense is in line with their value, but there’s always a nice flyer everywhere, and mine is…
Shot: Albert Okwuegbunam
If Fant were to go down, Albert O would propel into a solid starter each week. Even with Fant there last season, Okwuegbunam was utilized and specifically very heavily in the RedZone. He finally gained some playing time in weeks 6-9 before he was injured for the season. His utilization percentage (target % in this case) was through the roof in weeks 6 and 7 (25% & 22.6%). He is too much of an athletic mismatch not to find his way on the field. He’ll likely sit on your waiver wire, but he is worth a stash roster spot if you’re in deeper leagues like me. If your league isn’t deep, make sure to sit him on your watch list if the opportunity can present itself.
Not: Broncos QB’s
Their value is fine, but, as stated, the value of this team is pretty in line with what you’d like to gain from their performances. Bridgewater and Lock are both going dirt late, so there is nothing wrong with the picks, but I’d identify them as un-rosterable at this point.
Los Angeles Chargers
Shot: Mike Williams
He is projecting as WR45 in the 9th round, but I’m feeling the situation that I’d easily leap a round or two earlier. With Justin Herbert, this offense will thrive. The staff is from the Saints, and they are using Williams in the Michael Thomas role. I think it translates. He’s delivered in the past with lesser talent at QB, so outside of his injury history, I have zero concern with Williams. The perfect storm is brewing with him becoming a free agent next season. WR2 seems pretty easy (or better 😉 ) in a contract year. Eat!
Not: Austin Ekeler
I think Ekeler finishes with an easy floor of RB2. RB1 is just as likely, but being projected as RB6 and pick 7 overall is too much for my liking. In no particular order I’d take the players below over him:
Travis Kelce (never in love with drafting a TE in the first round).
That puts Ekeler at RB12 for me and overall about another round later. I’m fine with drafting him in round 2, but round 1 is too rich for my blood.
The AFC SOUTH of my 32 Shots & Nots breakdown.
Shot: Darrynton Evans
Tannehill would’ve been the easy shot here, but the rest of the competition finally caught up to Tannehill’s value over the last few seasons, and now he’s drafted accordingly.
Evans, though, might be a forgotten man. Only in his sophomore year, he may be one of the only true handcuffs out there. You’d wish he was a little heavier in weight to handle a full workload if Henry went down, but it’s not like he’s a scat-back that can’t handle the significant volume. He is solid in the passing game and would quickly catapult into the top 15 with a Henry injury. In round 17 at RB60, he’s a nice stash-and-hope guy, not that we are hoping for injuries, but we know they are coming.
Not: Anthony Firkser
There is nothing wrong if you want to pick Firkser in round 15 of your draft, but you’re wasting bench space, in my opinion. At TE26, there is zero wrong with his value, but this offense goes through Henry, AJ, & Julio. There are rumblings of some articles of Firkser having a breakout this year, but it won’t happen. Geoff Swain will share time, and I’d even pursue WR3 Josh Reynolds in this offense before any of the Tight Ends. Let Firkser take up someone else’s bench space and get your hands on an upside asset that can help you this season.
Shot: The entire Colts passing game
The value on this team is highly undervalued.
Carson Wentz QB18
Nyheim Hines RB39
Michael Pittman WR48
TY Hilton WR53
Parris Cambell WR66
Jack Doyle TE32
I want as many shots as I can get with this team. I respect and agree that Jonathan Taylor will be a massive fantasy producer in this offense, but this team isn’t running the ball 50 times a game. In a perfect draft, I would land Michael Pittman in round 8(one round earlier than his consensus, as I feel he’s a must-own this season), Carson Wentz in round 11, and Jack Doyle in round 22 (if your drafts go that high, as mine do). Load’em up!
Not: Marlon Mack
He’s not the handcuff you think he’d end up as if Jonathan Taylor was injured. Jordan Wilkins would find his way in the mix to destroy Mack’s upside. Coming off an Achilles tear, I highly doubt the team would provide him a full workload with a capable back like Wilkins around. The comeback story would be nice if JT were to fall to his own injury but find a better stash on your bench in rounds 15 or 16.
Shot: Marvin Jones
In rounds 9 or 10 at WR50, the pick is Marvin Jones. Every year he is undervalued. He goes in the last leg of drafts and always pays you back at WR3 or sitting in your flex all year. In the last four seasons, Jones finished as WR3 or better (he missed seven games in 2018).
2020 – WR18
2019 – WR29
2018 – WR66 (only played ten weeks and was pacing WR30 up until that injury)
2017 – WR12.
Not: James Robinson
Update: Since the season-ending injury of Travis Etienne, Robinson is a full buy at this point.
I love the story just as much as you do, but Travis Etienne will take over this backfield. It is not if. It is when. Even if that doesn’t occur, then you’ll have a timeshare that won’t work itself out. Robinson killed it last year, but the question is about a 1st round draft pick in Etienne vs. an undrafted Robinson. It is not going to land in his favor. Robinson had 49 receptions and 10 touchdowns. I easily see both of those numbers getting cut in half. If he falls past his current ADP of rounds 5 and 6, he’s worth it then, but I can’t stamp it at his current price.
Shot: Deshaun Watson
It is likely that Watson does not play this year and even more likely a chance that he doesn’t play for the Texans. With that, he costs nothing at QB31. If a trade or some unusual situation presents itself and the legal woes disappear, you can have a top 5 QB for nothing at all.
Not: Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks primarily delivered each year, and with each team, he landed. It included the likes of quarterbacks Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Deshaun Watson delivering those passes in the past. He split his outcome while in Los Angeles with Goff with one successful year and one unsuccessful year. I want to go with the path of success that Cooks usually lands at WR37, but age is catching up. The Texans are a horrendous football team, and Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been successful since 2017. I’m going to pass this year at that value.
The AFC NORTH of my 32 Shots & Nots breakdown.
Shot: Joe Burrow
We all know the injury in Week 11, but through Week 10 last year, Burrow was QB13 in his rookie campaign. Everyone is discussing Ja’Mar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, with some of those articles stating they will all go for 1000 yards this season. Likely or not, they come close to that mark, but why not take QB13 in rounds 8 or 9? His floor is QB12 with significant upside as he takes on his sophomore year.
Not: Tee Higgins
This is not me being a non-believer in Higgins. I think he delivers solid WR3 floor with WR2 upside, but drafting him WR24 in round 4 comes with unnecessary risk when you can have similar pieces in Ja’Mar Chase(WR70) and Tyler Boyd(WR71) in rounds 5 and 6. Let someone else deal with the WR congestion in round 4.
Shot: Cleveland WRs
I’ve been a huge opposition of Odell Beckham Jr. in years past. I’ve never opposed his talent, but more his value. He was vastly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis as a WR1. He comes in at WR27, which I love in round 5 as your WR2 or WR3. He comes with the upside, and even in a short stint last season, he managed to deliver WR2 numbers in the six weeks he was available (I won’t neglect to share he had a 40-point explosion in Week 4). Additionally, Jarvis Landry at WR39 in round 7 is a safe value. His WR3 floor throughout his career will continue, which can come with upside (not likely), but it does exist.
Amazingly there isn’t a player’s value on this team that I wouldn’t recommend their ADP. Baker Mayfield(QB17), Nick Chubb(RB10), and Kareem Hunt(RB23) are all perfectly fair values. The consensus of Austin Hooper(TE20), Browns D/ST(DEF16), Rashard Higgins(WR96), and Donovan Peoples-Jones(106) are ideally suited end of draft dart-throws.
Shot: Chase Claypool
His blow-up performance in Week 5 made everyone take notice. He finished his rookie year as a WR2, and even if we removed that Week 5 performance, he finished WR3. His abilities and size provide the opportunity for a massive ceiling, even with his aging QB. At WR30, I love his upside in rounds 5 or 6.
Not: JuJu Smith-Schuster
I’m sorry, but this hype train has left the building for me. 2018’s number still has people gassed. “But Craig, he’s in a one-year prove-it deal?” My answer to that is that he was in the same scenario last year. He delivered WR2 numbers, so he has some floor, but the risk of locking him in as my WR2 does not work for me. His QB is old and beat-up, and the other two WRs on his team are better. I can accept WR3, but anything above that is cause for concern on your fantasy roster.
Shot: Rashod Bateman
Update: I still like the late value of Bateman and should be even later with his injury, but keep in mind it may be a longer delay before he can impact your starting lineup
I foresee his ADP growing as we get closer to draft day, but his value today is the perfect buy with upside. He fills a void that the Ravens need desperately. His prototypical WR1 size and abilities should provide an excellent week-to-week floor for receptions. He’s not limited to being a possession wide receiver and has a ton of upside. At WR64 in rounds 13 and 14, this is the type of player that can win drafts.
Not: Lamar Jackson
I know I’ll receive a ton of heat for this since I am a Ravens fan. This is not an analysis of him as a successful QB, but one of a fantasy QB. We know about his running game, and now he has upgraded weapons, so there should be a lot of success for Jackson this year. I see him as a top 12 QB, but QB4 in round 4 is way too much capital for me. If he doesn’t finish top 3 at QB, your pick is a bust. That is too much risk for what is available in those rounds. Please grab him if he falls to you later, but that is too early for my blood.
The AFC EAST of my 32 Shots & Nots breakdown.
Shot: Cole Beasley
I know there is a lot of noise and theatrics of the vaccine issues, but this is the off-season where everything is a dumb soap opera. At WR54, you can land a WR in the 10-12 round that finished WR2 & WR3 in the last two seasons. Buy the fear.
Not: The Bills RBs
This offense goes through Josh Allen and even some of it on the goalline for rushing TDs. The value for Zach Moss(RB36) and Devin Singletary(RB42) won’t kill you, but you are chasing and rostering RB’s that likely won’t provide more than their draft position. I’d look for more upside players in rounds 8 & 9.
Shot: Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki has finished TE7 & TE12 in the last two seasons. He likely will land in the same space this season, but if you aren’t chasing the high-end TEs early in drafts, he isn’t a horrible pick in rounds 9-10 to provide a low floor if the rest of your team is stacked. When Tua primarily (I used that word as Fitz was in the mix for some of that time) played since Week 9, Gesicki produced as a TE4.
Not: DeVante Parker
DeVante Parker finished as a WR1 in 2019. He finally lived up to the hype, avoided injury, and produced. He then got paid. He’s not a horrible reach in round 9 (WR45), but I’d prefer taking Michael Pittman, Mike Williams, or Hollywood Brown than dealing with the overcrowded WRs in Miami and not to mention the question marks of their QB.
New England Patriots
Shot: Jacobi Meyers
I wanted to go with Jonnu Smith here, but the 15th round value of Jakobi Meyers is too hard to ignore. Whether it be Cam Newton or Mac Jones, I feel Meyers is highly undervalued. The Patriots run an offense based on timing and extreme details. While many other free agents landed in New England, Meyers has a head start, the coaches’ trust, and previous success. From Week 7 on, Meyers was performing as a WR2.
Not: Damien Harris
All the value for the Patriots players signals a green light to buy rather than finding a dud in the mix. Harris is my pick here because he presents some risk with his value. The Patriots love committees, and even though James White isn’t the James White we all adored in years past, he definitely will not go away. I like Harris as an RB4, but his value of RB31 in round 7 is RB3 territory. I prefer to buy David Johnson(RB32) or one of the two Tampa Bay RBs in Ronald Jones(RB33) or Leonard Fournette(RB34) before him.
New York Jets
Shot: Jamison Crowder AND Elijah Moore
Hear me out. I think Jamison Crowder gets cut or traded. I think he lands somewhere that can help another team. Crowder finished WR36 & WR32 in the last two seasons, and with the right opportunity, he’ll find his path again. If the Jets move on from Crowder, it will be because of Elijah Moore. Both of these player’s roles are identical and are the perfect safety net for a rookie QB. You can land Crowder at WR61 or Moore at WR65 in the 12th or 13th round. Gun to my head, I’m taking my chance on Moore.
Not: Corey Davis
He had his shot as a WR1 with the Titans, and AJ Brown dethroned that path for him. Even with the attention of Brown, Derrick Henry, and a better QB, he still didn’t find a way to thrive. He is now with the Jets and a rookie QB. I’m avoiding Davis in round 8 at WR43.